Los Angeles Dodgers Trade for Tyler Glasnow

by Corey Pieper
Los Angeles Dodgers Trade for Tyler Glasnow

The Los Angeles Dodgers continued their busy offseason on Friday morning by completing a trade for Tyler Glasnow. The full trade was starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot for starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfield prospect Jonny Deluca.

Glasnow was one of four players whom I referenced in my trade candidates article last week. At the time, I mentioned the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs as possibilities for Glasnow. However, I did reference the Dodgers as a possibility for Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes.

Even after acquiring Glasnow and designated hitter Shohei Ohtani it still doesn't feel like the Dodgers are done. They are currently being speculated as one of the favorites to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto and relief pitcher Josh Hader.

Keep checking Fantasy Six Pack for updates on all the major signings and trades throughout Major League Baseball, and how they'll affect your Fantasy Baseball teams!

Los Angeles Dodgers Trade for Tyler Glasnow

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Tyler Glasnow with the Tampa Bay Rays

Glasnow's time with the Rays can be characterized in two ways. He has become dominant when on the mound. But he has spent far too much time on the injured list.

Last season, he was able to amass 120 innings. It was the most innings he has ever pitched in his eight seasons in major league baseball.

His 2023 season debut was delayed until the end of May due to an oblique injury. In 2022 he was only able to pitch six innings at the very end of the season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery on his elbow. It was that same elbow that had cost him the second half of the 2021 season. The 2020 season was the shortened season and he was able to stay healthy throughout. 2019 though was only 60 innings as he battled arm injuries.

Add it all together and the five full seasons that Glasnow was with the Tampa Bay Rays, he was only able to pitch 332 innings total. Now, the statistics over those innings are comparable to anyone.

Over those 332 innings, his ERA is only 3.03! If you prefer to go off of FIP, that would say that he has actually been slightly unlucky as that is only 2.89!

With last season you go to a Fangraphs leaderboard and lower the innings pitched threshold to 120, Glasnow's name moves towards the top of many categories. He struck out over 12 per-nine-innings-pitched which placed him second to Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider. His FIP from last season was 2.91 which had him third behind Strider and Sonny Gray. His expected FIP of 2.75 led all of baseball!

On a per-inning basis, few pitchers can offer what Glasnow does.

Tyler Glasnow's Fantasy Impact with the Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have an extremely talented rotation, but none of their options are what I would consider to be a reliable option for innings pitched.

Walker Buehler missed all of last season with Tommy John surgery of his own. It was his second Tommy John surgery which makes recovery more challenging. We have seen the success of Nathan Eovaldi after two surgeries, but Hyun-Jin Ryu has not been seen since his second surgery. Encouragingly, Buehler was able to pitch a few rehab innings in the minors at the end of last season.

The team has the makings of two future stars in their rotation with Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan. As with the other starting pitchers, there are inning concerns, but for a different reason. They have never done it before. Miller's high innings mark was last season's 124 innings. With development, I think we can count on 150 innings for him.

Sheehan's innings pitched history paints an even bleaker picture of how many innings we can expect out of him this season. In the last three seasons, Sheehan has finished between 60 and 68 innings pitched. Even being optimistic, it's hard to see that number exceeding 100.

Tony Gonsolin is unlikely to pitch this season with Tommy John surgery of his own. Dustin May is working his way back from a flexor tendon surgery. Ryan Yarborough was acquired midseason in a trade with the Kansas City Royals but is more of a swing starter, than a traditional option.

The team could turn to their minor league depth to help fill the missing innings. The team has plenty of minor league starting pitcher options with Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, and Landon Knack. Even though his first taste of the big leagues was a 9.00 ERA over 31 innings, I think Stone would get the first chance again.

Tyler Glasnow's Departure Impact on the Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have realized that you don't have to rebuild if you retool. As players become expensive like Glasnow and Margot, they replace them with cheaper options in Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca. Much like the Dodgers, they have an extremely talented rotation but with plenty of injury concerns.

Zach Eflin came to Tampa Bay last season as the highest-paid free agent the team had ever signed. The Rays couldn't have asked for more, as he delivered with a career-low 3.50 ERA over a career-high 177 innings.

Another acquisition last season was Aaron Civale from the Cleveland Guardians. After coming over in the midseason with a 2.34 ERA, he struggled to a 5.36 ERA in his times with the Rays.

The least heralded pitcher acquisition for Tampa Bay last season was Zack Littell. You wouldn't know it based on the way he pitched. Littell was a waiver pickup from AL East division rival the Boston Red Sox. Over 87 innings with Tampa Bay, Littell only walked nine batters and struck out 72! That type of control would put him only behind Seattle Mariners George Kirby in walks/9 if he can maintain.

Even with Glasnow gone, the team still has its fair share of injury concern pitchers too. Shane Baz missed all of last season recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen are all going to miss substantial portions of this season with elbow surgery recoveries of their own.

Ryan Pepiot is the new man on the team. Pepiot's biggest issue going into last season was the walks. Last season, he was able to cut way back on the walks and it helped him pitch to a lowly 2.14 ERA. The FIP was still 4.18 as it seems unlikely that he will be able to strand over 99% of the runners he puts on base.

Final Thoughts on Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow is currently going as the 10th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC ADP with an overall position of 46. Regardless of league size, that is more than likely going to be your SP1 for your fantasy team. I completely understand taking the risk on Glasnow at that point.

The good news about Glasnow's injury last season was that it wasn't an arm injury, but an oblique injury. That gives me hope for 150 innings this season. If he gets to that number, I wouldn't be surprised if he struck out 200 batters with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP under 1.10. With the Dodgers offense backing him, that would probably mean a solid win total. That's all the makings of an SP1.

All starting pitchers have injury risks. Glasnow just comes with an injury history along with that risk. However, he also comes with the upside of the top pitcher overall.

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