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MLB DFS 4-15-21 Pitching Primer

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Every now and then, the MLB schedule just takes a dump on us DFS players. Today we have a split slate for the MLB DFS 4-15-21 Pitching Primer.

In the early slate, we have one obvious play for cash pitcher on each site and a wide array of GPP only options.

For some inexplicable reason, FanDuel has left two afternoon games completely off the slate.

We then have a five-game main slate with three usable cash options and few GPP.

In today’s MLB DFS 4-15-21 Pitching Primer we will help you sort through these options and get you back over the cash line.

MLB DFS 4-15-21 Piching Primer

Click here for MLB DFS Wisdom of the Crowd Projections

Jacob deGrom (N/A FD, $11k DK) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Simple, the Phillies have scored four runs in three games against the Mets this week. They are among the worst teams in MLB with a 28.9 percent strikeout rate. It doesn’t get easier. There are two plays on DraftKings. Take nearly 100 percent owned deGrom, or stack against him in a single entry GPP and pray.

Lance Lynn, CWS ($10.2k FD, $9.4k DK) vs. Cleveland Indians

On the heels of Carlos Rodon‘s no-hitter, Lynn takes the mound 15 hours later prepared to dominate. The Indians, on the other hand, have scored just five runs in 28 innings thus far in the series.

Lynn is coming off of an eleven strikeout performance, which led him to a whopping 70 FanDuel point outing. His .221 xwOBA versus the current Cleveland roster is the best on the slate. There is no reason to fade this play in FanDuel cash games, eat the chalk or skip the slate.

Trevor Rogers, MIA ($7.5k FD,  $6.6k DK) @ Atlanta Braves

Rogers has been outstanding through his first two starts, with 16 strikeouts through ten innings. He faces a red hot Braves team paced by Ronald Acuna Jr. who is on fire, so the upside will be much lower. We can hope with the 12:10 pm start after a night game that maybe we will see a “B” lineup from the Braves, possibly with Freddie Freeman sitting against a left-hander.  Rogers is priced way down on DraftKings and offers a perfect complement to deGrom despite the matchup. At $6600 we barely need fifteen points to pay off his salary.

Chris Paddack, SD ($7k FD, $8.7k DK) @ Pittsburgh Pirates

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Paddack is your quintessential GPP play for the early slate. Unlike Rogers, he has been pretty bad so far this year. The Padres look to rebound off of two straight losses to the Pirates, in which starters Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove did no favors to the bullpen combining for less than five of the 18 innings needed. The Friars will be looking for Paddack to eat some innings in this early tilt.

Paddack is most effective when his changeup is working. This season, he’s using that pitch five percent more than last year, when he was among the worst in the league at allowing hard contact. Hopefully, he continues this trend and gives us a Quality Start on a terrible slate. The price on DraftKings is prohibitive, but he makes for a good value on FanDuel.

Aaron Civale, CLE ($9.4k FD, $9.3k DK) @ Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are hitting a ton and riding a high after Rodon’s no-hitter last night. With a salary of $9400 on FanDuel he likely will not be owned much against Lynn at nearly the same price, but his average points per game versus salary is 4.7X so we have room for some letdown. I always like to take a GPP flier against a team letting down the next afternoon after a celebratory event.

Julio Urias, LA ($9.6k FD, $10.1k FD) vs. Colorado Rockies

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There are only three pitchers to consider on the main slate, which lends to being more of a cash game slate. Urias has a .208 average against and 27 percent strikeout rate when facing the Rockies. Two weeks ago he went seven strong innings against these Rockies, striking out six in Coors Field. Today he is back home, where his career ERA is more than a full run better than on the road.

The Dodgers have allowed Urias to go past six innings in both starts thus far. He is developing nicely into the ace the Dodgers thought he would become, with the luxury of pitching out of the fourth spot in their rotation.

His slider spin rate is top five in all of MLB and has developed into a deadly swing and miss option. We should see him pitch into the seventh innings with seven or more strikeouts and pay off his salary.  He is the only truly comfortable option this evening.

Steven Matz, TOR (?????) @ Kansas City Royals

For some reason, the Blue Jays have not yet announced a starter for today’s game, despite it being the natural turn in the rotation for Matz. There has been no sign of injury concerns that would exclude Matz from making this start.

Matz has been outstanding thus far and gets a plus matchup against one of the worst teams in MLB at striking out. This is one of those situations where he may be added to the player pool late in the day, thus giving us lower ownership. It is a situation worth monitoring and trying to play a leverage move against our competition in GPP contests.

Patrick Corbin, WAS ($8.1k FD,$7.8k DK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

This feels almost NSFW, and definitely not safe for the MLB DFS Pitching Primer. Corbin got a late start to the season due to Covid and was obliterated by the Dodgers. in his first start. Today he gets the cure-all Diamondbacks as an opponent as a -190 favorite at home.  He has held this lineup to a .074 ISO and .268 wOBA in limited appearances. Meanwhile, he is backed by the offense with the highest run expectancy on the day against Merrill Kelly.

I’m not sure he is allowed to pitch far past the fifth inning, but Corbin offers a good win probability backed with a 24 percent career strikeout rate. Again, there is no reason to come off Urias in cash, Corbin merely offers a GPP alternative if you need to differentiate, especially on Draftkings.



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About Jeff Trela

Jeff is a 30 year veteran of fantasy sports as both a commissioner and player. He specializes in redraft, dynasty, and DFS. He plays in several NFBC Leagues and will be providing the DFS Pitching Primer this season. In 2021, Jeff will be taking his analytical and "game theory" approach to League 9 of the TGFBI. he is always available on Twitter @Jtrela20

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