MLB DFS 4-8-21 Pitching Primer

by Jeff Trela
MLB DFS 8-20-21 Pitching Primer

Yesterday's MLB DFS Pitching Primer was simply red hot fire. Let's hope the MLB DFS 4-8-21 Pitching Primer gives us back-to-back wins!

Five of the six pitchers we discussed went 4x or better. All five of them outperformed my fades on a per-dollar basis, leading me and the rest of Fantasy Six Pack DFS nation to a very profitable day.

Today's slate is a mixed bag. It comes together similar to yesterday in that the main slate starts at 1:00 pm EST and fills your wallet by dinner.

We have last week's top two overachievers, and the early season's biggest belly flops as well.

There are weather concerns, as rain across the Midwest figures to wreak havoc on the slate. What is worse is these games are at the tail end of the slate, starting three hours after lineups lock.

I strongly advise you to keep your eye on the forecast as long as you can.  My quick, untrained forecast looks as if all three are more in danger of a delayed start than a PPD or delay. Nothing ruins a DFS pitching slate worse than a lengthy in-game delay to chase the starting pitchers away. The disciplined move may be to take the day off.

Check back later today or on Twitter (@JTrela20) and I will let you know how it looks closer to lineup lock.

The top three pitching options are all in the games with weather concerns. They also all have Friday off, so the opportunity for a quick PPD and make the game up the next day is an easy decision in all three spots. If nothing else, you could potentially get great ownership in GPP if you are willing to roll the dice on the weather.

MLB DFS 4-8-21 Pitching Primer

Click here for MLB DFS Wisdom of the Crowd Projections

Jose Berrios ($9.6k FD, $9.8k DK) vs. SEA

Berrios was unworldly good last week, throwing six no-hit innings with twelve strikeouts. This outing was a carryover from a very strong spring performance, where he struck out 18 batters over 18 innings.

Seattle's offense has been at times competent this year - they did get to Lucas Giolito a bit on Tuesday. But, Giolito has a completely different arsenal profile as compared to Berrios, who barely features a changeup at all.

Regardless, Berrios is underpriced for the slate and due to the strikeout upside should hit value with relative ease.

It looks as if there is a 30% chance of rain throughout the day in Minnesota, so it does lend us to the possibility of a short exit due to a rain delay. He's a free square in this matchup if it looks like the rain holds off.

Corbin Burnes, MIL ($9.4k FD, $9.4k DK) @ StL

Burnes was equally lights out matching up against Berrios last week, giving up only one run behind 11 strikeouts in a hard-luck loss.

Yesterday we nailed it here with Brandon Woodruff and we will go back to the Brewers staff again today. Burnes has a whopping 39% K-rate against the current Cardinals roster.

Unfortunately, we are looking at a similar situation to the game in Minneapolis - 30% chance of lingering storms throughout the entire evening. We will have to check in on this situation closer to lineup lock.

If either Berrios or Burnes plays while the other does not, you will see huge ownership on the one who does.

Lance Lynn, CWS ($8.9k FD, 8.7k DK) vs. KC

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I like the weather profile on this game the best of the three. It looks as if there is the possibility of a lengthy delay, with a clear window a few hours later. If they can wait it out, we will have uninterrupted baseball later into the night.

What is concerning in this type of situation is we do not want to see Lynn get hot before the delay and then the White Sox decide not to warm him up again and push his start back a day.

Lynn was allowed to throw 99 pitches in his first outing so we should be able to get good length from this consistent horse. He doesn't really do anything exceptional but has the opportunity to get through six innings with seven or eight strikeouts and a decent chance to get the Win or Quality Start. The White Sox are a -180 favorite.

He is tentatively the cash game favorite in this edition of the MLB DFS 4-8-21 Pitching Primer.

Jake Arrieta, PHI ($8.5k FD, $8.5k DK) vs PIT

If the above three games are rained out or too risky for you, and you absolutely HAVE to play DFS today, I guess Arrieta is the way to go. He was very good last week en route to a 40 point FanDuel outing against the Pirates. Somehow, he draws the Pirates today once again.

This feels like a complete trap, and quite honestly I will not be doing it unless it becomes the last option standing. Although the Pirates are terrible, they are still a professional baseball team that gets paid to take the field 162 times.

The Other Guys

Brad Keller and Adam Wainright both went for negative fantasy points in their first start. We did see Kyle Gibson go from the Outhouse to the Penthouse yesterday, so anything can happen. Both can be GPP fliers if you are playing in single entry contests for just a few dollars.

Taijuan Walker and Eduardo Rodriguez are both pitchers I am excited about this year but will be on very short leashes today. Walker signed very late in the spring, while Rodriguez hasn't pitched in 18 months. There is no reason to use either today. You will have to ignore the name recognition and move on for the next few weeks.

If there is going to be a surprise pitcher on this slate to step up and have a big game and be the disgusting play of the day, it is Pittsburgh's Tyler Anderson. I would feel better if he were cheaper than $7,000 on FanDuel ($6.6k DK), but he fared quite well against these same Cubs last week, striking out seven in five innings. While he doesn't have a career strikeout profile, his 36% usage of his cutter last week was the most in any game in his career.  Maybe he found something?

Lots of luck with this murky slate. Remember, sometimes the best strategy is to take the day off.

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