MLB DFS 6-11-2021 Pitching Primer

by Jeff Trela
MLB DFS 8-20-21 Pitching Primer

Today's MLB DFS 6-11-2021 Pitching Primer is Texas Hold 'Em dream. There are a few aces on the table and a couple in your hand.

There are four pitchers on both FanDuel and DraftKings priced over $10K, with several others just below. It will be a very difficult day to build on DraftKings, where the two pitcher requirement will almost force you into an uncomfortable amount of value bats right away. The good thing is that it feels like the type of night where all of the top pitchers will do well, and it likely won't make a tremendous difference if you catch the right one or not.

I would expect Jacob deGrom and Brandon Woodruff both to go over 50 FanDuel points, with Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Mahle, and Lucas Giolito all having a safe floor of 40 with the opportunity for more.

MLB DFS 6-11-2021 Pitching Primer

Click here for MLB DFS Wisdom of the Crowd Projections

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets ($12K FanDuel, $11.3K DraftKings) vs. SD

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Jacob deGrom is simply ridiculous. He has an ERA of 0.62. The opponent doesn't matter, with a 45 percent strikeout rate and 3 percent walk rate, no one has a chance. He has yet to give up more than one earned run in a game yet this year! Maybe the price, opponent, and the fact there are so many aces on the hill today will deflect ownership away. If he were $15k, he would still be the top option in my MLB DFS 6-11-2021 Pitching Primer.

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers ($11.8K, $10.8K) vs. PIT

Brandon Woodruff has had a career year in all facets. His wOBA against of .192 is among the top for all starters. He had recently snapped a streak of ten consecutive starts with at least six innings pitched. He will look to restart that streak against the lowest-scoring team in the league the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates are not known for striking out much, but Woodruff has a 31 percent strikeout rate against the expected starters in this game. If the price scares you a bit, he has gone 3x or more of this price in every start this year except for his Opening Day contest. He's very safe to use on both sites. I would love to see a screenshot of a team on DraftKings with both deGrom and Woodruff.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals ($11K, $11.5K) vs. SF

The game has a very high chance of being postponed. Also, somehow he is more expensive than deGrom on DraftKings. This is strictly a high-risk GPP option if you want to leverage against deGrom. Scherzer is one of the more consistent power strikeout pitchers in the history of DFS, and any time you can get him at less than one percent ownership it is a risk worth taking.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers ($9.8K, $9.8K) vs. TEX

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The Rangers are in the bottom third of the league in both runs scored and strikeouts. It's the perfect recipe for Kershaw to have a bounceback fantasy start after giving up five earned runs in his previous two outings. He did show decreased spin rate in those starts, but this future Hall of Famer should not be looked at as a possible regression candidate if it were to continue.

Kershaw has a 28 percent strikeout rate this year and an elite 4 percent walk rate (as he always does). His price is suppressed due to the recent below-average game logs, but this is a get-right spot for him at home.

Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox ($10.7K, $10.1K ) @ DET

Lucas Giolito is a tier below these other aces for me this year. He's already had four games with four earned runs or more. I simply do not trust him on a regular basis.

However, the Detroit Tigers are just what the doctor ordered or a DFS get-right game. Next to last in both strikeouts and runs scored per game, the Tigers are the top matchup to target in DFS. Giolito has a .285 xwOBA and 27 percent strikeout rate against this lineup. He is very safe for cash games tonight.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds ($8.5K, $7.9K) vs. COL

If there is a pitcher with the matchup, pricing, and strikeout upside to sneak in and outperform this card of aces, it might just be Tyler Mahle. He is on quite a roll right now, having won his last three games while giving up only two earned runs over that stretch. He takes the mound as the second-highest favorite on the night at -235.

Mahle has a 28 percent strikeout rate this season and does well with limiting hard contact. He is developing into a 200 strikeout per season starter.

The Rockies are an embarrassing 5 and 24 on the road this year. They have been outscored 151 to 73 away from Coors Field. This is a perfect recipe for Mahle to have a monster game.

Ryan Yarbrough, Tampa BY Rays ($7.9K, $7.7K) vs. BAL

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Ryan Yarbrough is not a strikeout pitcher, thus making him a hard pitcher to recommend in DFS. He is, however, elite at keeping the bases empty and pitching to soft contact.

He has had a lot of success against the Orioles, with a .289 xwOBA, .193 average against, and .169 ISO against tonight's opponent. Yarborough is coming off of a complete-game win in Yankee Stadium, so the momentum is right. He makes for a good second pitcher option on DraftKings.

Jose Urquidy, Houston Astros ($6.9K, $8.6K) @ MIN

Jose Urquidy is the route on FanDuel to ram in all of the big hitters and have a true contrarian build. He is not a big strikeout pitcher but did manage to strike out nine Red Sox just two starts ago. He does have two starts this week of 45 FanDuel points or more, which is what you would need in this spot to catch up with the aces. Someone on this slate, possibly even a few pitchers, is going to drop a sixty burger. You will be significantly behind and will need your bottom value hitter to go over 20 points to catch up. This is not a recommended play, it is simply for mega multi-entry, or the player who likes a high risk, high reward play in a cheap GPP.

For any questions related to the MLB DFS 6-11-21 Pitching Primer, or for additional options, you can reach me on Twitter @jtrela20. Otherwise, check me out streaming LIVE every Sunday at 7:30 PM EST on the Stack Attack Fantasy Podcast, now part of the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube network of podcasts.

Click here for MLB DFS Wisdom of the Crowd Projections

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