MLB DFS 6-21-18 FanDuel Rundown

by @Raw_DFS & @Toro_DFS
MLB DFS 6-21-18 - FanDuel 2B Projection Results 6-20-18

Last night our DFS Projections had Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve projected to score 11.76 FanDuel points. He came into last night averaging 12.9 FD points per game for the month of June, so we had him a little below his average. Altuve ended up scoring 43.4 FD points, outscoring everybody, including our favorite pitcher of the night, his teammate Charlie Morton. Jose hit two home runs and a double, pick up 2 RBI and scored twice. It was his best night since 5-26 when he scored 55.6 FD points.

MLB DFS 6-21-18 FanDuel Main Slate Rundown

Stock Up

Jason Heyward OF, Chicago Cubs - $2700

Hayward is hitting .286 in June (63 ABs), after hitting .283 in May (53 ABs). He gets to face Reds RHP Matt Harvey at hitter friendly Great American Ball Park, where the Cubs are projected to score 5+ runs tonight.

Hayward has eclipsed 12 FD points 7 times this month.

Key Pitchers

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals - $12200

Absolute cash lock. This is one of the best matchups of the year. Scherzer actually matched up vs Baltimore earlier this year and went for 12Ks in 8 innings - allowing only 1 run. It was the most FD points he scored all year.

The Nationals are huge favorites, Baltimore swings and misses a lot and this matchup vs Scherzer is not going to end well for them - 45% K rate vs RHP.

Projected Runs: 2.62

Grade: A+ (Cash & GPP)

Tyler Skaggs, Los Angles Angels - $9000

The Blue Jays are a below average team vs LHP,  but Skaggs has poor splits vs Righties. His K% plummets, wOBA rises, and his walk rate almost quadruples vs right handed batters. He could face nine righties in Toronto's lineup tonight.

Fortunately, he throws a Knuckle Curve 30% of the time, where seven of the Jays projected starters have a wOBA under .285 vs the pitch. Skaggs has decent GPP upside because of that pitch, and he has been on a roll recently.

Projected Runs: 4.12

Grade:  C (GPP)

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants - $8600

Bumgarner has not been himself this year, with a 5.29 xFIP. He owns an extremely low 11 K%, with an abysmal 6.7% swinging strike rate.  Bumgarner has a matchup vs the Padres, which may sound really good at first, but they have a couple hitters who absolutely mash left handed pitching.

Christian Villanueva has an outlandish .557 ISO and .519 wOBA vs southpaws.

With Hunter Renfroe who is also excellent vs lefties and Wil Myers retuning from the DL, Bumgarner could definitely face some damage.

Mad Bum has had very poor splits vs righties in his first 3 starts and it's looking like he will have to face seven of them today.

However, Vegas seems to like Madison today. The Padres are averaging 14 K’s per game as a team over the last 4 games.

Projected Runs: 3.41

Grade: C (GPP)

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals - $7300

He is by far the high-risk high-reward play today. Martinez has not been able to find the strike zone at all since returning from the DL.

However, at this insanely cheap price for such a highly regarded SP, he is very intriguing in GPP.

The Brewers strikeout a lot - if Martinez can regain his control, he could be a GPP winner!

Projected Runs: 4.45

Grade: C (GPP)

Things Could Get Ugly in The Windy City

The Cubs are my favorite stack today facing an awful Matt Harvey in Cincinnati. Harvey comes into tonight’s matchup holding a 5.09 ERA in 2018 allowing 20 ER in just 35 IP.

The Cubs are currently projected to score the most runs on the slate at 5.29.

Chicago's lineup features many key value plays such as Jason Heyward (2.7k batting 2nd) and Addison Russell (2.5k batting 5th). Both of these guys are going to be locks in my 50/50 lineups tonight.

If you are looking to pay up, the Cubs offer two of the best bats on the slate. Kris Bryant ($4100) and Anthony Rizzo ($4000) are both in great spots.

Rizzo’s projected ISO of .237 and wOBA of .386 have him projected as one of the highest first basemen.

The Cubs are going to make it into a hefty amount of my lineups.

Key Hitters

Harrison Bader OF, St. Louis Cardinals - $2400

Bader is a great salary saver if you are looking to spend the money on Max Scherzer. Bader is projected to bat 2nd against LHP Brent Suter.

Bader crushes LHP (.511 SLG) and I like his odds of scoring some runs tonight batting in front of Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez.

Eric Thames 1B, Milwaukee Brewers - $3600

A mid-priced hitter with power upside I’m looking to target is Brewers 1B Eric Thames.

Thames is in somewhat of a tough matchup against Cardinals Ace Carlos Martinez, but his power makes him viable in almost any matchup.

At this price, Thames is a great value if you are looking to fill in that utility spot.

My Top Stacks

Chicago Cubs - Heyward, Rizzo, Russell

Milwaukee Brewers - Thames, Yelich, Shaw

San Diego Padres - *lineup TBA* proj. Myers, Renfroe, Villanueva (this stack is very risky)

  • if you are looking for some contrarian GPP options the Padres may be your team. Madison Bumgarner has been straight up bad against righties this season and I don’t see it stopping tonight.
  • I’m looking at Christian Villanueva $2.8k and Hunter Renfroe $2.6k as cheap options with huge HR capability. Villanueva is a HR or bust play, but he comes into tonight with an ISO of .557 and a wOBA of .519 on the season against lefties.

For further questions about tonight's slate, hit us up on twitter - @Raw_DFS & @Toro_DFS - or leave a comment below!

Click here for updated FanDuel and DraftKings projections

Early Slate Lineup Tips

  • Mariners @ Yankees
  • Red Sox @ Twins
  • Mets @ Rockies

Top 3 Projected Pitchers

  1. Luis Severino - 41.4 vs SEA
  2. James Paxton - 34.5 @ NYY
  3. Rick Porcello - 32.3 @MIN

Stack the Rockies vs Mets Steven Matz - Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu are the top four projected hitters in the early slate, with Ian Desmond also in the top 10!

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