Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS 6-4-21 Pitching Primer


On most Friday slates I try to give at least six or seven pitching options but in today’s MLB DFS 6-4-21 Pitching Primer that will not be the case.

There are two high-quality aces available, and they happen to be facing each other.

Usually reliable, starters Julio Urias and Hyun-Jin Ryu are in uncomfortable matchups and hard to recommend at a premium price.

There is always excitement when Shohei Ohtani is on the mound, but he has only paid off 4x of his $9.5K salary as a pitcher once this year.

I generally fade Coors Field hitters on the first day of a new series when one or both of the teams had to travel far the day before. Oakland’s 1300 mile flight from Seattle certainly qualifies, so I will not be requiring a value option for my cash games.

Let’s get right into it and build some bankroll!

MLB DFS 6-4-21 Pitching Primer

Click here for MLB DFS Wisdom of the Crowd Projections

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies ($11.5 K FanDuel, $10.7 K DraftKings) vs WAS

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Wheeler very well may be the hottest pitcher in baseball. He has struck out ten or more batters in each of the last three outings, all while scoring a minimum of 55 FanDuel points. Even as the most expensive player on the slate, he offers us a fairly safe path to the 4x of salary we search for in cash games. Wheeler and his opponent have massive sample sizes against their respective opponents, hence the Vegas total of only a 6.5 posted on this game.

The new “ace” of the Phillies staff has been enjoying the highest strikeout rate of his career at 31 percent. This is the result of a new pitch mix, as he has changed from leading with his sinker to now with a four-seam fastball. One of the hardest throwers in the game, the four-seamer appears to have even more late movement on it than before.

Wheeler has an extensive history against the Nationals, with over two hundred batters faced. Altogether he has allowed only four home runs and a .106 ISO to the current members of the squad.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals ($11.2k FD, $11.4k DK) @ PHI

On the other end of this game is future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. While it will be very difficult to fit both opponents into the same lineup on DraftKings, there is a fairly large pricing gap favoring Wheeler.  It is basically a coin flip as to which to use on FanDuel.

Scherzer’s game log is a work of art and consistency. He has recorded either eight strikeouts or a win in nine of eleven starts this year.

Like Wheeler against the Nationals, Scherzer has faced members of the Phillies lineup over two hundred times across his career. While a .214 average against is quite impressive, a .210 ISO is a bit concerning. Scherzer is known for giving up more home runs than you would want from an ace.

Scherzer is actually enjoying the highest strikeout percentage of his career at 36.5%. He is approaching three thousand strikeouts for his career, a mark he will reach this year if he stays healthy.  Couple that with the Phillies being the third-worst team in MLB at striking out, and this should be as far as you need to go in your cash lineups.

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers ($8.7k FD, $10.4k DK) vs AZ

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If you want high strikeout potential at a price that allows you to stack the Coors Field game on FanDuel, Freddy Peralta is your guy. Peralta has been a Sabermatrician’s dream this year, with all of his predictive measures among the top five percentile in all of baseball. His strikeout rate of 37 percent is almost criminal. He has navigated around an eleven percent walk rate by limiting his opponents to a .152 expected batting average and 2.38 ERA.

Arizona has been simply awful lately, having won only five games in the month of May. In a limited sample size, Peralta holds a 53 percent strikeout rate and .146 xWOBA against this woeful opponent.

What makes Peralta strictly a GPP play today is the lack of length he has provided for owners this year. Less than half of his starts have been recorded as a Quality Start as he averages 5.5 innings per game. In three games in which he has failed to complete five innings, he is averaging only 25 Fanduel points. He is priced up on DraftKings with the big boys and is therefore only a dart throw GPP on that site where you hope for the unlikely event that the Nationals/Phillies contest becomes a shootout. However, his price on FanDuel allows you quite a bit of flexibility.

Kyle Gibson, Texas Rangers ($8.1k FD, $7.6k DK) vs TB

Gibson comes off the Injured List to make the start tonight against my favorite DFS punching bag, the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are far and away the worst team in the game at striking out.

Gibson is not a dominant strikeout pitcher, but he has enjoyed success against this opponent. Earlier this year he has a 30 DraftKings point result against the Rays. In over one hundred career plate appearances, he has only allowed one home run to a Tampa Bay batter.

There certainly will be concerns about length tonight as Gibson makes his return from injury, so this is strictly a GPP option if you are a mass multi-entry player. I would have to be at least ten lineups in before I took this risk.

Cody Poteet, Miami Marlins ($6.9k FD, $6.6k DK) @ PIT

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Cody Poteet has been a revelation for the Miami Marlins. He is not a highly regarded prospect, but the results through four career starts would make you think otherwise. The 27-year-old rookie is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP through his first 21 career innings. His 4.9 percent walk rate is quite impressive, despite strikeout stuff which is below league average.

Poteet is coming off of a rough start in which he lost at Fenway Park after allowing five earned runs. Enter the Pirates, who are ranked dead last in the league at scoring runs. We should see a Quality Start from Poteet with about a 50% chance at a Win, as his team is a -110 favorite on the road. Helping matters is that opposing starter Mitch Keller has been an absolute dumpster fire this year to the tune of a 48 percent hard-hit rate and 6.54 ERA.

For any questions related to the MLB DFS 6-4-21 Pitching Primer, or for additional options, you can reach me on Twitter @jtrela20. Otherwise, check me out streaming LIVE every Wednesday at 9 PM EST on the Stack Attack Fantasy Podcast, now part of the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube network of podcasts.

Click here for MLB DFS Wisdom of the Crowd Projections

About Jeff Trela

Jeff has been succeeding in fantasy sports for nearly 30 years. As a baseball and football expert, he focuses on DFS, NFBC, redraft, and dynasty formats. His talents can be seen in #TGFBI and #SFB11 this year. He also hosts the Stack Attack Fantasy Podcast every Sunday at 7:30 pm EST on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel.

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