MLB DFS 7-30-21 Pitching Primer


The MLB DFS 7-30-21 Pitching Primer will give you some insight into one of the hardest days on the calendar to play DFS.

Today is Trade Deadline day! As always, there is an edge if you play your cards correctly. If you generally set your DFS lineups in the morning, this day is not for you.

Lineups and starting pitchers will be fluctuating all the way up through the deadline and close to lineup lock at 7:05 pm.

I have identified a few starting pitchers I am confident in. There is one that is late enough after lineup lock to allow you to start with confidence, and take the edge as it is given.

Fortunately, the weather looks to be cooperating, and there should be no threats to the schedule. Let’s get to it.

MLB DFS 7-30-21 Pitching Primer

Click here for MLB DFS Wisdom of the Crowd Projections

Ross Stripling, Toronto Blue Jays ($7.7K,  $7.8K) vs. KC

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The game logs may scare you off a bit. Ross Stripling has not posted a score of 4x his salary in over a month. But momentum is on the side of the Blue Jays and Stripling has a stellar history against the Royals. They threw in the towel by trading Danny Duffy just yesterday, with more purging to possibly come today.

Stripling has an incredible .142 xWOBA and 34.4% strikeout rate against Kansas City, with a .100 batting average against.

While the Royals do not strike out much, they are among the lowest in the league at scoring runs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays put up 13 runs last night, so the run support should be there. The Jays are listed as -210 favorites, leading to high confidence in our win equity here.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers ($8.2K, $7.5K) vs. BAL

The Orioles are currently sitting on the second-worst record in baseball, while the Tigers are riding a three-game winning streak and actually have a chance to sniff out a .500 record for the season.

Tarik Skubal has pitched to a 10.25 k/9 and has recorded a Win or Quality Start in nine of his last twelve starts. He has pitched to more length, failing to complete five innings only once in his last sixteen starts.

As the cheapest option available in the MLB DFS 7-30-21 Pitching Primer on DraftKings, he will make for an excellent second pitcher there for both GPP and cash games.

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox ($10.7K, $10.3K) vs. CLE


Lance Lynn was my pre-season choice for American League Cy Young, and he now sits as the favorite at +110. He has been the model of consistency all year. Lynn has recorded a Win or Quality Start in fifteen of eighteen starts for the White Sox.

The Sox tightened up the defense by adding Cesar Hernandez to the infield yesterday. He is likely to be in the lineup today.

The future Guardians are a familiar foe for Lynn, and his 30.5% strikeout rate and .113 batting average against predict a relatively easy win, as is indicated by being the largest favorite on the board at -215.   Earlier this year Lynn struck out 10 batters in six innings against Cleveland. I would not be surprised to see that happen again.

Chris Bassitt, Oakland Athletics ($9.4K, $9.6K) vs. LAA

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The only unit for the Angels to see more work than the bullpen of late is their medical staff. With Jared Walsh now joining Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout on the IL, the lineup is basically the Shohei Ohtani show and nothing else. Bassitt should easily take advantage, as he sports a .268 xWOBA and .077 ISO against the expected starters today.

Before giving up fourteen earned runs in his last four starts coming out of the All-Star Break, Chris Bassitt was a serious contender for the Cy Young in the junior circuit. His sub-nine k/9 hold him back from being an elite DFS play every fifth day. However, there is a level of consistency and control overall which is comforting.

He has paid off 4x of his today’s salary in 62% of his starts this year, which takes us over the rake and makes for a cash game play.

Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees ($7.9K, $8.7K) @MIA

Jameson Taillon has been outstanding in the month of July after a rocky start to the season. He has now recorded a Win in five of his last six starts, with 30 strikeouts crossed that span.

Tonight he takes on a Marlins’ lineup without Starling Marte or a Designated Hitter in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miami is the perfect mix for a DFS target, they strike out often and score few runs. Taillon should reach value on FanDuel today with relative ease.

Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers ($7.3K,$7.9K ) @AZ

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The Dodgers are poised to acquire Max Scherzer and have already traded for Danny Duffy. This likely indicates that Tony Gonsolin might be ticketed back to the bullpen at some point soon. But that point is not today, and he will enjoy a very juicy matchup in which his team is a -180 favorite. At 3.9, the Diamondbacks have the lowest expected run total on the board tonight.

Gonsolin is no stranger to the team on an express bus to the number one pick in next year’s draft. He has stymied the Diamondbacks to a .068 ISO and .234 xWOBA. Take into account that Arizona just traded arguably their best hitter in Eduardo Escobar, and you can feel safe using Gonsolin in cash games on both sites at this price point.

Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins ($9K, $8.1K) @ StL

The bad news is that Jose Berrios is the most likely pitcher on the slate today to be scratched due to a trade. The good news is the game is scheduled for four hours past the deadline. We will have plenty of time to react if necessary. This uncertainty should suppress his ownership and lead to a sneaky good play.

Berrios has owned this Midwest opponent over his career to the tune of a 40.5 strikeout rate. His .183 xWOBA represents the highest expectancy for success on the slate.

Although the Cardinals do not strike out a lot, their ineptitude at scoring runs makes up for that in DFS. They are fifth-worst in baseball at crossing the plate.

For any questions related to the MLB DFS 7-30-21 Pitching Primer, or for additional options, you can reach me on Twitter @jtrela20. Otherwise, check me out streaming LIVE  on a very special episode this Sunday at 5:00 PM EST on the Stack Attack Fantasy Podcast, now part of the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube network of podcasts. Fantasy Hall of Famer Lenny Melnick will join us to break down the Trade Deadline impact on your fantasy baseball team!

About Jeff Trela

Jeff has been succeeding in fantasy sports for nearly 30 years. As a baseball and football expert, he focuses on DFS, NFBC, redraft, and dynasty formats. His talents can be seen in #TGFBI and #SFB11 this year. He also hosts the Stack Attack Fantasy Podcast every Wednesday at 9:00 pm EST on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel.

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