NFL DFS Super Bowl LV Projections

by Keith Lott
NFL DFS Super Bowl LV Projections

Welcome to the NFL DFS Super Bowl LV Projections. Hey look, Tom Brady is in yet another Super Bowl!

It is so weird to see him doing it in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform. However, as a Brady-hater, this proves once and for all that he is the greatest NFL quarterback of all-time and there is no more debating it. There is no argument that he is the product of a Bill Belichick system anymore.

But feel free to tweet me and tell me why I am wrong about that!

The argument is soon to shift focus towards Patrick Mahomes vs Tom Brady being the G.O.A.T, especially if Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl Championships.

I decided to switch things up for the Big Game and will share the range of projections for each player, along with the Wisdom of the Crowd average projection.

As this is the final game of the 2020-21 NFL Season, we are looking at NFL DFS Showdown contests.

FanDuel does not differentiate pricing to make someone your MVP but DraftKings adds 67% salary in order to take advantage of that 1.5x multiplier for your Captain!

NFL DFS Super Bowl LV Projections

DraftKings Projections Range

This is not to be confused with floor/ceiling projections. This is just the range of projections that our sources are predicting.

Standard Error (SE) - the higher the number the more the projections disagree with each other.

Patrick MahomesKC1200027.22.324.628.41.5
Tom BradyTB1000023.32.322.024.31.0
Travis KelceKC1100022.52.019.527.93.5
Tyreek HillKC1040021.
Chris GodwinTB880016.31.814.816.80.8
Mike EvansTB840014.51.710.715.82.2
Antonio BrownTB620013.02.110.915.42.2
Leonard FournetteTB780012.91.711.515.21.5
Clyde Edwards-HelaireKC700010.
Mecole HardmanKC56009.91.87.711.31.5
Rob GronkowskiTB30009.
Sammy WatkinsKC42008.
Darrel WilliamsKC52008.51.66.911.21.7
Ronald JonesTB22008.
Cameron BrateTB48006.
Scotty MillerTB34006.
Demarcus RobinsonKC14005.

Multiple sites have Tyreek Hill projected for more points than Travis Kelce, but that is not the consensus. It is going to be very difficult to play both of them with Mahomes as the Captain as you are left with just $3.5k per player remaining. Choose wisely!

Even if you flip Kelce or Hill into the CPT slot, you are left with less than $4.0k per player for the remaining three roster spots.

This strategy will force you into Ronald Jones, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, a defense and/or a kicker.

DraftKings CPT Value

Normally I would use what I call "Core Value" to determine which players are truly valuable vs which players are just cheap. We are going to call that Captain Value for the Super Bowl on DraftKings.

In order to calculate Captain Value (cVal), we first need to multiply our projections by 1.5.

Next, we square those new CPT projections before dividing that by the player CPT salary and then multiply by 100.

((CPT Proj * CPTProj)/CPT Salary)*100

PlayerTeamCPTCPT ProjcValSalaryProjVal
Patrick MahomesKC1800040.89.21200027.22.3
Tom BradyTB1500034.98.11000023.32.3
Travis KelceKC1650033.86.91100022.52.0
Tyreek HillKC1560032.46.71040021.62.1
Chris GodwinTB1320024.44.5880016.31.8
Mike EvansTB1260021.83.8840014.51.7
Antonio BrownTB930019.54.1620013.02.1
Leonard FournetteTB1170019.43.2780012.91.7
Clyde Edwards-HelaireKC1050015.62.3700010.41.5
Mecole HardmanKC840014.82.656009.91.8
Rob GronkowskiTB450014.04.330009.33.1
Harrison ButkerKC600013.83.240009.22.3
Sammy WatkinsKC630012.82.642008.52.0
Darrel WilliamsKC780012.82.152008.51.6
Ryan SuccopTB570012.42.738008.32.2
Ronald JonesTB330012.34.622008.23.7
Cameron BrateTB720010.21.448006.81.4
Scotty MillerTB51009.91.934006.61.9
Demarcus RobinsonKC21008.13.214005.43.9
Le'Veon BellKC12005.52.58003.64.6
Tyler JohnsonTB18004.11.012002.82.3
Byron PringleKC27003.80.518002.51.4

Captaining Brady saves you $3k vs Mahomes. Stacking him with Mike Evan and Chris Godwin leaves you with $5.8k remaining per player.

One way to pivot here is to target touchdowns and roll with Evans and Cameron Brate. That will leave you with $7.3k remaining per player and much more flexibility.

FanDuel Projections Range

Remember, FanDuel does not price up MVP's, they do not allow defenses to be played and they use half-PPR vs DraftKings PPR.

There is also one less roster spot to fill on FanDuel (5) vs DraftKings six-player lineups.

Normally I would use what I call "Core Value" to determine which players are truly valuable vs which players are just cheap. We are going to call that MVP Value for the Super Bowl on FanDuel.

((MVP Proj * MVP Proj)/Salary)*100

Standard Error (SE) - the higher the number the more the projections disagree with each other.

PlayerTmSalaryMVP ProjmValProjValueLowHighSE
Patrick MahomesKC1650037.28.424.81.522.926.11.2
Tom BradyTB1500032.16.921.41.420.622.20.6
Tyreek HillKC1400027.
Travis KelceKC1450026.74.917.81.215.920.31.9
Chris GodwinTB1200019.83.313.
Mike EvansTB1150018.02.812.
Leonard FournetteTB1250016.
Antonio BrownTB950015.52.510.31.18.811.71.4
Harrison ButkerKC850013.
Clyde Edwards-HelaireKC1000013.
Ryan SuccopTB850012.
Mecole HardmanKC750012.
Rob GronkowskiTB650011.
Ronald JonesTB800011.
Darrel WilliamsKC900011.
Sammy WatkinsKC750010.
Cameron BrateTB70008.
Scotty MillerTB65008.
Demarcus RobinsonKC55006.
Le'Veon BellKC60004.
Byron PringleKC60003.

Rolling with the Chiefs Mahomes /Hill/Kelce stack on FanDuel leaves $7.5k remaining per player. Both Harrison Butker and Ryan Succop are priced higher than that!

Which cheap option on either the Chiefs or Bucs do you think gets involved in one of those infamous Super Bowl trick plays?

Byron Pringle saw five targets in the AFC Championship against the Buffalo Bills while Scotty Miller caught a touchdown in the NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers. Antonio Brown (knee) is doubtful to play in the Super Bowl.

One interesting thing on FanDuel, Leonard Fournette is priced above Evans and Godwin.

The Bucs Brady/Evans/Godwin stack leaves you with enough cash to add Kelce or Hill.

If you go the two QB route, you will have to mix in the running backs. but which team is going to lean more on their backfield?

As of 2/1 this is what the prop bets looks like for running back rushing attempts:

Stay tuned for Mark's ThriveFantasy Super Bowl LV Prop Bets Picks post!

Super Bowl LV DraftKings Projections Download

Super Bowl LV FanDuel Projections Download

Click here for more Fantasy Football content, including our 2021 NFL Mock Draft!

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