Welcome to the NFL DFS Super Bowl LV Projections. Hey look, Tom Brady is in yet another Super Bowl!
It is so weird to see him doing it in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform. However, as a Brady-hater, this proves once and for all that he is the greatest NFL quarterback of all-time and there is no more debating it. There is no argument that he is the product of a Bill Belichick system anymore.
But feel free to tweet me and tell me why I am wrong about that!
The argument is soon to shift focus towards Patrick Mahomes vs Tom Brady being the G.O.A.T, especially if Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl Championships.
Patrick Mahomes will become the 1st QB age 25 or younger to start multiple Super Bowls.
He will do so against the QB with the most Super Bowl starts ever. pic.twitter.com/wlleNVELr5
— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) January 25, 2021
I decided to switch things up for the Big Game and will share the range of projections for each player, along with the Wisdom of the Crowd average projection.
As this is the final game of the 2020-21 NFL Season, we are looking at NFL DFS Showdown contests.
FanDuel does not differentiate pricing to make someone your MVP but DraftKings adds 67% salary in order to take advantage of that 1.5x multiplier for your Captain!
NFL DFS Super Bowl LV Projections
Updated Odds to win Super Bowl 55 MVP
+100: Patrick Mahomes
+200: Tom Brady
+1200: Tyreek Hill
+1300: Travis Kelce
+2500: Leonard Fournette
+2800: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
+3000: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin📊 Entire MVP Odds List: https://t.co/koxQ2u65ZG pic.twitter.com/tnM7Ub3Dq6
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 28, 2021
DraftKings Projections Range
This is not to be confused with floor/ceiling projections. This is just the range of projections that our sources are predicting.
Standard Error (SE) – the higher the number the more the projections disagree with each other.
| Player | Team | Salary | Proj | Value | Low | High | SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 12000 | 27.2 | 2.3 | 24.6 | 28.4 | 1.5 |
| Tom Brady | TB | 10000 | 23.3 | 2.3 | 22.0 | 24.3 | 1.0 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 11000 | 22.5 | 2.0 | 19.5 | 27.9 | 3.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 10400 | 21.6 | 2.1 | 19.1 | 25.4 | 2.4 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 8800 | 16.3 | 1.8 | 14.8 | 16.8 | 0.8 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 8400 | 14.5 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 15.8 | 2.2 |
| Antonio Brown | TB | 6200 | 13.0 | 2.1 | 10.9 | 15.4 | 2.2 |
| Leonard Fournette | TB | 7800 | 12.9 | 1.7 | 11.5 | 15.2 | 1.5 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 7000 | 10.4 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 1.4 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | 5600 | 9.9 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 1.5 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TB | 3000 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 0.7 |
| Sammy Watkins | KC | 4200 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 0.8 |
| Darrel Williams | KC | 5200 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 1.7 |
| Ronald Jones | TB | 2200 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 1.5 |
| Cameron Brate | TB | 4800 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 1.7 |
| Scotty Miller | TB | 3400 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 1.7 |
| Demarcus Robinson | KC | 1400 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 1.1 |
Multiple sites have Tyreek Hill projected for more points than Travis Kelce, but that is not the consensus. It is going to be very difficult to play both of them with Mahomes as the Captain as you are left with just $3.5k per player remaining. Choose wisely!
Even if you flip Kelce or Hill into the CPT slot, you are left with less than $4.0k per player for the remaining three roster spots.
This strategy will force you into Ronald Jones, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, a defense and/or a kicker.
DraftKings CPT Value
Normally I would use what I call “Core Value” to determine which players are truly valuable vs which players are just cheap. We are going to call that Captain Value for the Super Bowl on DraftKings.
In order to calculate Captain Value (cVal), we first need to multiply our projections by 1.5.
Next, we square those new CPT projections before dividing that by the player CPT salary and then multiply by 100.
((CPT Proj * CPTProj)/CPT Salary)*100
| Player | Team | CPT | CPT Proj | cVal | Salary | Proj | Val |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 18000 | 40.8 | 9.2 | 12000 | 27.2 | 2.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | 15000 | 34.9 | 8.1 | 10000 | 23.3 | 2.3 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 16500 | 33.8 | 6.9 | 11000 | 22.5 | 2.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 15600 | 32.4 | 6.7 | 10400 | 21.6 | 2.1 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 13200 | 24.4 | 4.5 | 8800 | 16.3 | 1.8 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 12600 | 21.8 | 3.8 | 8400 | 14.5 | 1.7 |
| Antonio Brown | TB | 9300 | 19.5 | 4.1 | 6200 | 13.0 | 2.1 |
| Leonard Fournette | TB | 11700 | 19.4 | 3.2 | 7800 | 12.9 | 1.7 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 10500 | 15.6 | 2.3 | 7000 | 10.4 | 1.5 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | 8400 | 14.8 | 2.6 | 5600 | 9.9 | 1.8 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TB | 4500 | 14.0 | 4.3 | 3000 | 9.3 | 3.1 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | 6000 | 13.8 | 3.2 | 4000 | 9.2 | 2.3 |
| Sammy Watkins | KC | 6300 | 12.8 | 2.6 | 4200 | 8.5 | 2.0 |
| Darrel Williams | KC | 7800 | 12.8 | 2.1 | 5200 | 8.5 | 1.6 |
| Ryan Succop | TB | 5700 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 3800 | 8.3 | 2.2 |
| Ronald Jones | TB | 3300 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 2200 | 8.2 | 3.7 |
| Cameron Brate | TB | 7200 | 10.2 | 1.4 | 4800 | 6.8 | 1.4 |
| Scotty Miller | TB | 5100 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 3400 | 6.6 | 1.9 |
| Chiefs | KC | 3900 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 2600 | 5.8 | 2.2 |
| Demarcus Robinson | KC | 2100 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 1400 | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| Buccaneers | TB | 4200 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 2800 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| Le'Veon Bell | KC | 1200 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 800 | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| Tyler Johnson | TB | 1800 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1200 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Byron Pringle | KC | 2700 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 1800 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
Captaining Brady saves you $3k vs Mahomes. Stacking him with Mike Evan and Chris Godwin leaves you with $5.8k remaining per player.
One way to pivot here is to target touchdowns and roll with Evans and Cameron Brate. That will leave you with $7.3k remaining per player and much more flexibility.
FanDuel Projections Range
Super Bowl LV is set for February 7th.
Earlier this season in Week 12, the teams combined for 960 total yards as the Chiefs defeated the Bucs 27-24#ChiefsKingdom#GoBucs pic.twitter.com/wkIYje1Gpo
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) January 25, 2021
Remember, FanDuel does not price up MVP’s, they do not allow defenses to be played and they use half-PPR vs DraftKings PPR.
There is also one less roster spot to fill on FanDuel (5) vs DraftKings six-player lineups.
Normally I would use what I call “Core Value” to determine which players are truly valuable vs which players are just cheap. We are going to call that MVP Value for the Super Bowl on FanDuel.
((MVP Proj * MVP Proj)/Salary)*100
Standard Error (SE) – the higher the number the more the projections disagree with each other.
| Player | Tm | Salary | MVP Proj | mVal | Proj | Value | Low | High | SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 16500 | 37.2 | 8.4 | 24.8 | 1.5 | 22.9 | 26.1 | 1.2 |
| Tom Brady | TB | 15000 | 32.1 | 6.9 | 21.4 | 1.4 | 20.6 | 22.2 | 0.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 14000 | 27.1 | 5.2 | 18.1 | 1.3 | 15.5 | 21.0 | 2.1 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 14500 | 26.7 | 4.9 | 17.8 | 1.2 | 15.9 | 20.3 | 1.9 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 12000 | 19.8 | 3.3 | 13.2 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 14.0 | 0.7 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 11500 | 18.0 | 2.8 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 1.8 |
| Leonard Fournette | TB | 12500 | 16.7 | 2.2 | 11.1 | 0.9 | 9.7 | 13.2 | 1.4 |
| Antonio Brown | TB | 9500 | 15.5 | 2.5 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 1.4 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | 8500 | 13.8 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 1.4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 10000 | 13.5 | 1.8 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 1.3 |
| Ryan Succop | TB | 8500 | 12.4 | 1.8 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 0.7 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | 7500 | 12.2 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 1.1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TB | 6500 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 0.7 |
| Ronald Jones | TB | 8000 | 11.2 | 1.6 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 1.2 |
| Darrel Williams | KC | 9000 | 11.0 | 1.3 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 1.7 |
| Sammy Watkins | KC | 7500 | 10.3 | 1.4 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 0.8 |
| Cameron Brate | TB | 7000 | 8.1 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 1.4 |
| Scotty Miller | TB | 6500 | 8.1 | 1.0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 1.4 |
| Demarcus Robinson | KC | 5500 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | KC | 6000 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| Byron Pringle | KC | 6000 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
Rolling with the Chiefs Mahomes /Hill/Kelce stack on FanDuel leaves $7.5k remaining per player. Both Harrison Butker and Ryan Succop are priced higher than that!
Which cheap option on either the Chiefs or Bucs do you think gets involved in one of those infamous Super Bowl trick plays?
Byron Pringle saw five targets in the AFC Championship against the Buffalo Bills while Scotty Miller caught a touchdown in the NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers. Antonio Brown (knee) is doubtful to play in the Super Bowl.
One interesting thing on FanDuel, Leonard Fournette is priced above Evans and Godwin.
The Bucs Brady/Evans/Godwin stack leaves you with enough cash to add Kelce or Hill.
If you go the two QB route, you will have to mix in the running backs. but which team is going to lean more on their backfield?
As of 2/1 this is what the prop bets looks like for running back rushing attempts:
- Leonard Fournette – 11.5
- Over -112
- Under -112
- Ronald Jones – 8.5
- Over -112
- Under -112
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 8.5
- Over -124
- Under +100
- Darrel Williams – 7.5
- Over +108
- Under -134
Stay tuned for Mark’s ThriveFantasy Super Bowl LV Prop Bets Picks post!
Super Bowl LV DraftKings Projections Download
Super Bowl LV FanDuel Projections Download
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