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2018 NFL DFS Week 4 Picks

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Last week was certainly a crazy week around the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills shocked the world with an upset in Minnesota, two new rookie QBs were named the starters (Baker MayfieldBrowns, Josh RosenCardinals), and two new passing records were set by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes.

On top of all that, it seems the Detroit Lions may have finally found a run game after all of these years.


As always we here at F6P are here to do our best to try and help you wave through the twists and turns and win a little money playing DFS this weekend.

2018 NFL DFS Week 4 Picks

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Quarterbacks

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Matthew Stafford @ Dallas Cowboys

$7300 FanDuel – 17.62 projection
$5700 DraftKings – 17.96

There are a lot of good options at QB this week. Stafford stuck out to me as a good value based on his low price and easy matchup. Last week against the Patriots, the offensive line proved it can win battles upfront and provide protection when needed. Stafford has a relatively low ceiling as this game shouldn’t get out of hand at any point, but also should have a solid floor to build around.

Andy Dalton @ Atlanta Falcons

$7400 FD – 17.91
$5400 DK – 18.34

Dalton has played very well this year averaging 21.7 points through three games. This week he faces a depleted Falcons defense already hit hard with injuries. The Falcons have given up the 5th most yards after the catch this season and Dalton and his receivers are in a great spot to take advantage.

Baker Mayfield @ Oakland Raiders

$6900 FD – 15.99
$5300 DK – 16.41

In case you’ve ignored any sports news outlet, Baker Mayfield got the Browns their first win last week. Also, Oakland got wrecked last week giving up continuous big plays to the Dolphins. With arguably better weapons at his disposal than Tannehill and the Dolphins had, the electric young rookie will have a good shot to keep the win streak going in Cleveland. If Antonio Callaway can work on his drops, Baker could be a top 10 option this week.

Josh Allen @ Green Bay Packers

$6400 FD – 15.06
$5100 DK – 15.32

A lot of what I have seen this week has shown that people think Green Bay’s D/ST is a good flex play this week. I on the other hand, believe Green Bay is a defense that should be targeted heavily in all formats. Josh Allen’s offense picked apart Minnesota’s dominant defense simply by avoiding mistakes. Green Bay doesn’t have as good of a pass rush or as strong of a secondary.

So while I don’t expect him to be pushing 30 points again, he has a pretty good ceiling despite his low floor. And as the third cheapest starter, he makes for a great choice if you want to stack up more talent at other positions.

Running Backs

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Melvin Gordon vs San Fransisco 49ers

$8700 FanDuel – 17.27 projection
$8000 DraftKings – 19.50

You don’t need me to tell you about Melvin Gordon, so I won’t. The 49ers lost Jimmy G and will most likely continue to struggle to score as much as they did last season. That means Gordon should be running out the clock early and often. So while he is an obvious choice, Gordon is a must have.

Carlos Hyde @ Oakland Raiders

$6800 FD – 11.67
$5500 DK – 13.39

With the emergence of Baker Mayfield, the entire offense will see a huge boost in efficiency. Carlos Hyde now finds himslef on a team with a good offense a good defense, and a favorable matchup against a bad team in Oakland. Hyde offers a redzone and pass catching threat as the only productive running back on the team as of right now. While I probably won’t write about him again in the coming weeks, Hyde is somebody who should stay on your radar anytime Cleveland has a good matchup.

Chris Carson @ Arizona Cardinals

$6400 FD – 11.08
$4600 DK – 12.53



Assuming he is healthy, Carson has an excellent matchup against the Cardinals this week. Nobody has given up more points to RBs this season than the Cardinals have. And while I do believe Josh Rosen is likely a noticeable improvement on Bradford, Seattle should be able to put up enough points to run away with the game. Carson is questionable with a hip injury, so it is important to keep an eye on him going into this week.

Aaron Jones vs Buffalo Bills

$5500 FD – 7.54
$4100 DK – 8.16

Jones is my high upside pick of the week. Green Bay struggled to get it done last week against Washington. As a result, I expect them to mix it up a bit this week and hand off to their best rusher more often. Jones is an explosive option that can help keep the blitz pressure off of Rodgers that we saw disrupt Cousins game last week. With this pick, the talent is clearly there, the only question to ask is will there be enough volume. His high upside is why he has found his way into several of my featured contest lineups.

Wide Receivers

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Allen Robinson vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

$6500 FanDuel – 11.04 projection
$5900 DraftKings – 13.60

Trubisky has looked good this season, but not great. But Robinson has proven to be his favorite target. So in a matchup where the Bears could see a real challenge from the Bucs, Robinson should be able to get the volume he needs to turn out high numbers.

Sterling Shepard vs New Orleans Saints

$6200 FD – 9.49
$5000 DK – 11.91

Shepard had a big game last week. And with this matchup against the Saints seems, he seems likely to repeat his performance. The saints have given up  more points to wide receivers than any other team in the league this year. So until the saints bounce back form their Minneapolis Miracle PTSD I will, and you should as well, continue targeting them in DFS.  Also Evan Engram is expected to miss time, making sure Shepard gets his targets.

While I don’t want to build up too much expectation for Shepard this is the team that gave up three touchdowns to Calvin Ridley last week. And for that reason Shepard is my player to build around this week.

Tyler Boyd @ Atlanta Falcons

$5800 FD – 8.75
$4600 DK – 10.81

Tyler Boyd has stepped into the WR2 role very nicely for the Bengals. And while AJ Green is still the man to have in this offense Boyd’s season long numbers are surprisingly close. Green has a 22% target share for the season and Boyd has 18%. With Green limited in practice but still expected to play, a lot of defensive attention focused on him. And if Green misses this week, Boyd could have an even bigger day as the number one target on the team.

Injury Update

Keenan Allen is dealing with a knee injury and hasn’t practice this week. Keep an eye on his situation and make sure you get Mike Williams in your lineup if he is ruled out!

Tight Ends

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O.J. Howard @ Chicago Bears

$5600 FanDuel – 7.02 projection
$3500 DraftKings – 8.55

The tight end position is normally thin. But with Greg Olson and Delanie Walker hurt there are even fewer guaranteed points to be had. The reason I like Howard even with his bad matchup against the Bears is that he is a playmaker who can bust out a big play anytime he touches the ball. As with all tight ends he will be touchdown dependent but he is a cheap option in a great offense that should be checking down plenty this sunday.

Ryan Griffin @ Indianapolis Colts

$4500 FD – 3.63
$2600 DK – 4.49

Watson is looking like his true self again. Griffin never really commanded a lot of attention before but now the Texans are suffering from injuries to their wide receivers leaving Griffin the third receiving option. He may not be a name you feel great about picking but he leaves you plenty of wiggle room in the rest of your budget.

NFL DFS Week 4 Team Stacks

 


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About Bobby Shepherd

Bobby has played fantasy football since he was first tall enough to reach a draft board. He eats sleeps and breathes stats and is always excited to share his findings.

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