Fantasy Football

2019 NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks: Four Weddings and a Funeral


As mentioned in a post earlier this week, there are many little DFS sites trying to breakthrough. One of them is ThriveFantasy who I am going to test drive this season. I will not only test drive but also give you some of my thoughts on prop bets, including some of my NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy picks!

You likely aren’t aware, so I’ll tell you a little more about ThriveFantasy. Similar to a regular DFS game, the entry with the most points wins a large percentage of the pot. The dollar amounts continue to descend with only a minority of the entries winning. For example, I am starting small and playing a $2 game this weekend. Of the 88 entries, first place will win $30, second place $20 and so forth until the 21st entry will only double their money. All other entries 22nd and lower will not cash.

What makes ThriveFantasy different is that you are not putting together a lineup. Instead, there are approximately 20 prop bets about specific players of which you have to pick ten. Those bets are then given points. If your bet is correct, you win those points. Follow?

Speaking of following, my wife has begun binge-watching the new TV series “Four Weddings and a Funeral” which is basically a reboot of the 1994 movie of the same name. But since I’m not going to give you my entire slate of picks, I figured it was a good context in which to give you my Week 1 picks. I will give you four bets that I’m happy to walk down the aisle with and one that I believe will leave you six feet under.

Here are some of my NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy thoughts.

2019 NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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Four Weddings

Patrick Mahomes 298 passing yards – 95 points – OVER

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Since you need to make ten separate prop bets you have plenty of opportunities to “go long” and try to win it all. You need to make a couple of conservative bets and the easy one this week is Patrick Mahomes. You only get 95 points, but Mahomes is the #1 QB in fantasy for a reason. Don’t get cute here. Take the points and look to score elsewhere.

Odell Beckham .5 Total Receiving TDs – 125 points – OVER

When looking over prop bets, there’s usually one that leaves you scratching your head wondering if the book knows something you don’t, but you can’t not do it. I get the .5 TD line. Maybe OBJ scores, maybe he doesn’t. He has only scored once in Week 1 in his career. But we know Odell likes to make a splash. Last year he opened up the season with 11 catches for 111 yards. So yes, he didn’t score, but to get two-third more points that he scores a TD this week than if he doesn’t? Yeah, I’ll take that.

Lamar Jackson 1.5 passing touchdowns – 120 points – OVER

You have to love the Ravens this week going against the Miami Tankings, I mean Dolphins. But the Ravens should be up quickly and will likely just hand the ball off 40 times this game. Or maybe the will let Lamar run one or two in. But the odds of Lamar actually needing to and let alone have two passing touchdowns is a long shot.

That being said, I have already said I believe in Lamar Jackson this year. I think the Ravens come out throwing early score two quick passing touchdowns and then run the ball 40 times. Given the extra 50% in points I’m getting, it’s a huge risk well worth the shot.

David Johnson Total Touchdowns .5 – 115 points – OVER

I’m calling this bet the option because I could definitely see it going either way on this bet. However, I think Johnson is in for a huge year so I’ll take the over here. Wouldn’t blame you if you took the under, but I’m going with my gut and taking the over.

One Funeral

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Saquon Barkley O/U 82.5 rushing yards – 100 points

I’m 100% confident that Barkley will have over 100 total yards and I think he will definitely have a good fantasy day. But just rushing yards? That’s tough.

According to Big Guy Fantasy Sports Prop Bet Consistency Tool, Saquon rushed for more than 82 yards in just 25% of his road games as a rookie. The flip side, of course, is that last time he played Dallas, Barkley rumbled for 109 yards. The Giants could be in catch up mode most of the game too and Barkley might not even see 15 carries. However, Barkley should see nearly all the carries and Dallas did give up 103 rushing yards per game last year.

Too much evidence on both sides of the ledger for an even-up bet. Stay away.

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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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