Daily Fantasy Sports

NHL DFS Picks 1-23-19

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Well, obviously my worst night of the week happened to be the day I had an article for you.

There was not a ton of combinations of my picks that would have made some profit.

As a player, I just take it in stride and keep up the process and the results should follow.


As someone writing for you – I strive to do better.

This is a nice little 6 game slate for the Wednesday, and I have killed these type slates in the past.

Let’s kill it tonight.

NHL DFS Picks 1-23-19

Vegas and Special Teams

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The special team’s numbers this time are just since the beginning of January, so you can see how teams are doing lately rather than for the season.

As a note, Washington, Arizona, and Carolina are all on back-to-backs.

Be sure to double check who is in the net for each team tonight.

TEAMLINE-O/UGOALIEPP%PK%
Arizona6uPickard20.785.7
Montreal-200Price891.4
Washington6.5uHoltby13.380
Toronto-195Anderson6.391.3
Minnesota6uDubnyk1086.8
Colorado-123Varlamov1974.1
Nashville6uRinne5.675.9
Vegas-125Fleury10.385.7
St. Louis5.5uAllen16.182.8
Anaheim-115Gibson13.685.7
Carolina6uMrazek27.675
Vancouver-112Markstrom12.588.9

Key Statistics

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I am going to change the format up a little bit here. Now that we are more than halfway through the season and lines tend to settle down a little bit – we can focus more on what players have been doing lately rather than taking the wide scope of the whole season.

For now, we are going to look at statistics over the last 10 games. In the cases of lines being shuffled recently and having a small sample, I will touch on individual statistics for those lines and if I have interest in them or not.

LINESALARYTOICF%GFGAHDCFHDCAPDO
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie192003257.38436695.2
Vrana-Kuznetsov-Wilson150001352.172132119
Hyman-Tavares-Kapanen1600011000000-
Marleau-Matthews-Marner19400-------
Panik-Stepan-Hinostroza128007857.55531613100.4
Keller-Cousins-Fischer117001757.89123583.3
Drouin-Danault-Gallagher152005752.143371197.5
Tatar-Domi-Lehkonen1440021652082115.4
Greenway-Staal-Coyle131002354.292032118.2
Zucker-Koivu-Granlund141009552.2502161694.4
Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen2410012958.21732730102.8
Wilson-Soderberg-Compher125003864.622195101
Forsberg-Johansen-Arvidsson188006171.6266251085.3
Fiala-Sissons-Smith126004337.633087115.8
Marchessault-Karlsson-Pirri187004659.76329699.8
Pacioretty-Stastny-Tuch169007856.76641617102
Maroon-O'Reilly-Tarasenko159003053.72063115.4
Schwartz-Schenn-Steen128002263.890061100
Rakell-Getzlaf-Shore136003646.88122397.8
Ritchie-Henrique-Sprong1090026501155100
Niederreiter-Aho-Williams173002071.05227577.2
Ferland-Wallmark-Teravainen13700769.230021100
Leivo-Pettersson-Boeser168001357.581124103.2
Baertschi-Horvat-Granlund13800333.330000-

As usual, these are the lines from last night and are always subject to change. I am especially skeptical of those Toronto lines because that is a full shake-up from last practice. Let’s see if any of it holds into game time.

GPP Plays

Power Plays (Expensive/Chalk)

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COL1 – Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen – Defensemen Add-On – Tyson Barrie

This team runs through this line. It is evident in their price. While you may probably not have enough to add Barrie into any of your lineups, it’s hard to ignore them here. This whole line is going to the all-star game, but they are going to want to put on a show for their home fans before the ASG break. It’s possible that they aren’t chalk at all just because of price, but people will always find a way to fit them in – especially at home. Fit with the best value line you can stomach playing.

NSH1 – Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson – Defensemen Add-On – Roman Josi

Nashville may be the away team here, but they are getting their reinforcements as Johansen is back from suspension. Since I recommended this line last week, they only played together that night because of RyJo’s slash that got him suspended. The reason I mention that is – all their numbers are pretty much the same. Tough to ignore the puck possession, the high-danger chances, and the ridiculous 85.3 PDO. They are due to bury some pucks, and with the break coming up, they don’t need to save any gas in the tank. They will be on my top lineup tonight.

Mid-Range/Value Dump-Ins

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MIN2 – Jason ZuckerMikko Koivu, and Mikael Granlund – Defensemen Add-On – Jared Spurgeon

This line is often a staple of my write-ups, but even though they won’t get to match up with Colorado the way they want, the Avalanche will likely keep MacKinnon away from this line, meaning they get whatever scraps are left. Granted COL2 has good possession numbers, this line has the talent to take it to them. They have not scored 5v5 in the last 10 games, and that is not something that will last forever. The price on this line is probably something near criminal considering what they can produce when they get going, so get in on this train while the price is deflated.

VAN1 – Josh Leivo, Elias Pettersson, and Brock Boeser – Defenseman Add-On – Alexander Edler

This was how the line was most recently, though I expect Leivo may not stick here. The two constants in this line are easily the best goal scorers on this team, and now the Pettersson is back, we can go back to playing him every day like we have since the season started. The price is still down a bit (since Pettersson missed time due to injury) and Vancouver is at home against a Carolina team that is on a back-to-back and is struggling to stay in the pack for the playoffs.



EDIT: Looks like Leivo is gone, and Baertschi is in. I almost like this line more this way, now we get full power-play correlation.

Contrarian Corner

VGK1 – Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Brandon Pirri – Defensemen Add-On – Colin Miller

Another staple of my writeups, but Gallant likes to get this line out against the best matchup he can – which means they are going to try to avoid RyJo entirely at even-strength. NSH1 canceled this line out back in October, but Nashville was at home. Vegas has been picking up steam, winning 7 of the last 10, and Karlsson is starting to regain some form, and Pirri and Marchessault are unloading the puck on net a LOT. I am often on this line, and it will almost certainly be contrarian (as much as one can be on a 6-game slate) against Nashville and Rinne tonight.

Gut Call (0-3-1)

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Last week, I recommended BOS1 and CHIPP1 in this spot.

BOS1 scored one goal, but did not much else, so that one is a loss at that price.

The CHI PP did score two goals against the Rangers in a 4-3 loss. The only problem is that the first one was by the 2nd line power-play. I am taking a draw on this one because the game played out somewhat as expected with that high total and everything. The results just didn’t quite pan out. There were only 4 minor penalties called in the game, with 3 PP opportunities for Chicago, where they scored twice.

This is where process over results prevails (or will prevail). This line of thinking will be profitable down the line when we find a spot like this again. The results just weren’t quite there this time.

I am going to keep this is 1 gut call a slate from now on because my record is looking pretty poor up there.

ARI1 – Vinnie Hinostroza, Derek Stepan, and Richard Panik – Defensemen Add-On – Jordan Oesterle

This line was very, very good last night with 3 even-strength goals against a bad Ottawa team. Now Arizona is playing again tonight against a Montreal team that has been better as far as wins and losses, but their even-strength lines are giving up high-danger chances at a clip that may be the highest all season. They might be tired and might limp into the break on the end of this road trip, and that is why this is a high-risk shot. The other wrinkle is that OEL got hurt last night and is not playing tonight, so we should see some increased workload for Oesterle and Chychrun, so at least look at them as one-offs.

They made me some money last night, why not again tonight?

Netminding

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As usual, I normally correlate my goalies with one of my stacked lines, but here are my top 5 goaltenders on raw points:

1. Marc-Andre Fleury

2. Frederik Anderson (shot volume and big favorite)

3. Jacob Markstrom (shot volume)

4. John Gibson (low total, needs to win to hit value, has the potential for shut-out as always)

5. Carey Price

Breakaway

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Well, we are at that point in the season where the bye weeks are starting and the all-star break is upon us. That is going to lead to mostly smaller slates and possibly some different strategies to emerge.


In the meantime, I will try and get another article out with some game theory and some broader topics.

Until then, stay frosty.

About Kevin Walsh

Kevin Walsh hails from Pittsburgh, PA and has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years and DFS for 5 years. He is a huge football fan and and even bigger hockey fan. Perfect blend of sports fan and math nerd. Try to look past the Steelers/Penguins bias. Follow him on twitter @FuryOTStorm

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