Daily Fantasy Sports

NHL DFS Picks 10-9-18

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Hello everybody, and welcome to what will be my regular column every week.

Tuesday is usually a bigger slate of games, so Tuesday is the day I will be breaking down a whole slate.

I may change up the format here and there, so bear with me while I figure out what is easiest to digest for everyone.


In the future, I will also break down my lineups so you can see exactly what I was thinking. This has the added bonus of a little bit of transparency.

We got a nice little six gamer here, so let’s get to it.

NHL DFS Picks 10-9-18

Vegas

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Reminder: All of these are bookmaker opening lines and always pay attention to the line movement. The goalies listed are probable, but always double check what goalies are starting today!

Colorado (Grubauer) @ Columbus (Bobrovsky)

Columbus -150, 6u

San Jose (Jones) @ Philadelphia (Elliott)

San Jose -120, 6u

Vancouver (Markstrom) @ Carolina (UNDECIDED)

Carolina -180, 6u

Calgary (Smith) @ Nashville (Rinne)

Nashville -175, 6u

Los Angeles (UNDECIDED) @ Winnipeg (Hellyebuck)

Winnipeg -185, 5.5u

Toronto (Anderson) @ Dallas (Bishop)

Dallas -120, 6u

Lots of games with six goal totals means we have a lot of chances to pick up some multi-point games. All of these six goal totals are not typical for a six game slate. Note that most of these games probably have solid targets one way or another. First look makes Hellyebuck look like a solid play as the big home favorite in the lowest total.

Power Play/Penalty Kill

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 2017 PP%2018 PP GF2018 PP CF2017 PK%2018 PK GF2018 PK CA
Vancouver Canucks21.462778.26313
Carolina Hurricanes18.411877.49210
San Jose Sharks20.620684.8228
Philadelphia Flyers20.691775.7817
Colorado Avalanche21.962783.2706
Columbus Blue Jackets17.181976.1714
Calgary Flames15.9931381.7827
Nashville Predators21.170281.9415
Los Angeles Kings20.42088527
Winnipeg Jets23.361581.7539
Toronto Maple Leafs253781.3919
Dallas Stars19.263780.7805

Not very much data yet with most teams having not even played a third game yet, so last year’s statistics are included here.

Toronto has started out hot, and have converted three of seven, as has Dallas. San Jose is struggling to find its way right now, but Philly’s PK was BAD last season.

Colorado had solid numbers last year on the man advantage, where Columbus had previously struggled.

Vancouver not only has poor PK%, but they have already taken 13 minor penalties, boding well for a Carolina team that just scored 8 goals.

As Vegas lines dictate, there is a lot to like here for a meager six-game slate.

Cash Plays

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Centers

Joe Pavelski ($5800 DK, $7200 FD) – More of a play on DK, Pav has not registered a point in the first three games. I would not expect that to continue. With Jumbo Joe out, he is the center on an average line and he will need to shoot to succeed. Much harder to justify on FD.

Sebastian Aho ($6200 DK, $6400 FD) – He shoots, he blocks shots, he plays the big minutes, and this team has come out on fire as far as scoring goals.  Just too cheap, especially at center where we can save a few bucks to get the heavy hitters at winger.

Elias Petterson ($5600 DK, $5200 FD) – Rookie continued to impress in the second game, and even if he doesn’t pick up a point, he gets those peripherals we are looking for, and he is still too cheap. Carolina is playing these firewagon type games already, so may just jam him and Aho in for cash.

Nathan McKinnon ($6900 DK, $8600 FD) – More of a play on DK again, but his price just doesn’t seem right for a player of his caliber. While he will likely always be a fine play, his price makes me want to play him here on DK, and his price on FD just validates that reasoning.

Pierre-Luc Dubois ($5500 DK, $6200 FD) – Another guy just picks up those peripherals. Tortorella loves guys that block shots, and he already has seven in two games on top of his six shots and one assist. Due for some more points here, this young kid is a stud in the making.

Adrien Kempe ($3700 DK, $4200 FD) – If you need a punt here, this is about the best you can get given his opportunity. He is a third line center, but he sees time on PP1, so he is plenty viable if you are loading up on studs.

Honorable Mentions: Mark Scheifele, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Tyler Seguin

Wingers

Micheal Ferlund ($5000 DK, $4600 FD) – Not a guy I would normally recommend, but he has taken 10 SOG in the last two, and we want pieces of this CGY-VAN game, so I can see playing him here, especially on FD.

Cam Atkinson ($6500 DK, $7100 FD) – Has not done a ton outside of an early goal in the first game, but does have four SOG in the first two games, and the points will come with this guy, he is an elite guy coming into his own. Safer than Panarin right now, I think.

Elias Lindholm ($5200 DK, $5600 FD) – Cheap exposure to the top line, if you can’t pay up to get Gaudreau or Monahan (both good plays almost always). Value guy for sure.

 


Patrik Laine ($6600 DK, $7600 FD) – All this guy does is shoot, and he was born to do it. Ten shots in the first two games, and he won’t ever stop. Much safer than Wheeler for the same price.

Cheap San Jose Wingers – This is going to be dependent on what the lines come out to be. They played yesterday and they are struggling hard. Pay attention to see who gets moved into a good spot on either Pavelski or Couture’s line, might open up some value here for sure.

Usual studs – most of the high priced guys will always end up being fine plays just because of their shot volume and high ceiling, so never discount the high priced guys too much.

Honorable Mentions: Ilya Kovalchuk, Mitch Marner, Jamie Benn, Kyle Connor

Defensemen

Shayne Gostisbehere ($5500 DK, $6400 FD) – He has picked up six SOG and eight BS which is 3.5 points per game without notching any points. Doesn’t get much safer than that on DK. FD price is more prohibitive, plus points are more important on FD, so a bit more cautious there with him.

Alexander Edler ($5800 DK, $5200 FD) – Another peripheral monster, he has 5 SOG and 12 (!) BS in two games, so this older gentleman can stick pick you up some fantasy points, and he has decent point upside in a high total game.

Mark Giordano ($5100 DK, $5500 FD) – Another criminal price for an older guy, but the offense still runs through him in the back. He is the QB on PP1, and still shoots and blocks shots. Has it all for a guy at that price.

Expensive Options (Rielly, Klingberg, Byfuglien, etc) – if its a spot you love, one of these guys is definitely fine to play if you have the money. I don’t love any of them really, not more than these other guys for the extra bucks.

Value – Brett Pesce ($3200 DK, $3600 FD) – He goes in these streaks where he ends up shooting a lot, or blocking a lot of shots. Depending on game flow, his peripheral ceiling rises, so if you need a really cheap guy, even if he just gets you three peripherals, that is probably good enough to free up some big guys.

FADE – Burns/Karlsson – this San Jose team can’t figure out what to do with two Norris winners, or even score really. So until they figure that out, I can’t pay that price. GPP only for those guys right now.

GPP Line Stacks

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Expensive Stacks

TOR1/TOR2/TORPP1 – Tough to not want some piece of this Matthews/Tavares combo in Toronto. Marner is starting to catch fire a little bit after coming out slow the first game, so I would probably lean that line if you aren’t mega-stacking the powerplay line.

DAL1 – Seguin-Benn-Radulov always has upside to go off every slate they play on. This game may be a firestorm of goals. Anderson and Bishop are fine goalies, but the quality of shooters in this game is pretty insane, and I would bet on the over in this one.

CLS1 – Dubois is a little cheaper, so it isn’t quite as expensive. Though Colorado has their backup goaltender today, Grubauer is no bum. I still feel like this line is due for an explosion that hasn’t happened yet. At the very least, Atkinson and Panarin love to shoot the puck. I will have some shares of this line.

COL1 – This is going to be a lineup to watch because Landeskog is day-to-day. If he is out, Alex Kerfoot will take his place, and provide some relief. I think MacKinnon and Rantanen are about $800 too cheap each, so this may end up being my favorite pay-up spot today.

Also playable: WPG1/2 (maybe contrarian in the lowest total game), CGY1 (tough game in Nashville), NSH1 (fairly boom/bust, Johansen gets no peripheral stats, so he needs points to pay off), PHI1

Mid-Level Stacks

CAR1 – Aho is turning into a stud, and though the lines don’t quite line up with the PP lines, Ferlund has been good on the LW so far, and expect this line to continue getting pucks on net.

WPG2 – Brian Little has a pretty low floor, but he does play on a line with Laine, who can explode at any time. Again, this is the lowest total of the night, so this may be contrarian.

LA2 (aka, That 70’s Line) – They seem to be cheaper than I can ever remember, and LA may need to have to keep up with this high powered offense. If Hellyebuck is chalk, this may be an excellent leverage spot also. Pay attention to the lines, as Wagner replaced Pearson at some point on this line last game. LA1 is also cheap if you like the Kovalchuk route instead.

Value Stacks

VAN2 – Pettersson is going to be tearing up the league in short order. Right now his linemates are more on the bum side, but Goldobin is incredibly cheap at least, and if you are going here, you might as well include the corpse of Loui Eriksson. You could also play Pettersson with VAN1 for a PP1 stack if you fancied that instead.

CGY2 – They got some pressure last game and picked up a couple of points, so going here isn’t totally insane. I think Tkachuk got most of his assists on the PP without his linemates, but I wouldn’t mind going here today if it fit.

Goalies

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Connor Hellyebuck ($8200 DK, $8600 FD) – CASH/GPP – medium priced on both sites, but is facing the least threatening offense in the lowest total in Winnipeg. The other teams on this slate are dangerous, and not really playing against elite goaltending, so I am leaning Hellyebuck here for cash.

Brian Elliot ($7800 DK, $7700 FD) – GPP – This guy is far from elite, but San Jose is struggling hard right now, in the middle of a road stretch, playing the second game of a back-to-back. Can’t ignore all the signs, so I am sure I will have a stab here.

McElhenney/Bobrovsky/Anderson – GPP – I can see playing any of these guys, but there just isn’t many good spots for goalies today with all these high totals.

Jones ($7300 DK, $8400 FD) – GPP – Maybe total insanity the way the Sharks have played, plus they are on a B2B, but if Jones starts, it could be some cheap points if Philly fails to pile it on. DK only at this price.

Putting It All Together

Getting used to building lineups for tournaments is going to take time if you are new to this. Going with a 4-3-1 or a 5-2-1 construction most of the time will normally yield the best results with the highest upside, but play around with some different things and try and find what works for you. Going off the grid may be a way to get unique also, which is not a bad thing. Next week, I will review how I did on this slate and give you a peak into what I am doing with my lineups.



If you have any questions about the statistics, or roster construction, please refer to my process post.

Until then, stay frosty.

About Kevin Walsh

Kevin Walsh hails from Pittsburgh, PA and has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years and DFS for 5 years. He is a huge football fan and and even bigger hockey fan. Perfect blend of sports fan and math nerd. Try to look past the Steelers/Penguins bias. Follow him on twitter @FuryOTStorm

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