Daily Fantasy Sports

NHL DFS Picks 11-13-18

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Last week, my picks did not go well.

Many of the games contained 3rd and 4th line scoring, and the ones that did not, were lines I was not particularly looking at.

Let’s remedy that right now. Let’s make sure we smash tonight.


NHL DFS Picks 11-13-18

Vegas and Special Teams

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TEAMVEGASGOALIEPP%PP/GPK%PK/G
Florida6oLuongo214.42743.57
Philadelphia-125Elliott13.83.4170.53.58
Pittsburgh-120Murray22.72.9383.33.2
New Jersey6oSchneider23.73.9382.53.8
Vancouver6oMarkstrom19.63.11803.61
NY Islanders-170Greiss173.3181.13.31
Arizona6uKuemper183.1291.83.06
Detroit-120Howard242.94803.82
Tampa Bay-145Vasilevskiy24.23.6487.73.82
Buffalo6uHutton183.5881.53.17
Washington6uHoltby31.53.3771.73.75
Minnesota-145Dubnyk18.23.2385.23.58
Montreal6uPrice13.63.8881.73.52
Edmonton-140Talbot203.5272.73.23
Toronto-130Anderson25.52.76822.94
Los Angeles5.5oBudaj14.83.3782.22.81
Nashville5.5uRinne13.63.6876.93.25
San Jose-140Jones17.53.1687.73.16

No monster favorites, mostly 6 totals – pretty even looking as far as Vegas goes, for once.

As always, track any line movement or goalie changes and adjust accordingly!

Key Statistics

Line matching is getting a bit difficult lately, as there have been a lot of line shakeups and philosophy shifts. It also appears to me that coaches shift strategy depending on the opponent (which they obviously should). That tends to make it difficult to be sure who will be matched up against who and often turns into splitting time against two different lines.

We just need to pay attention when this happens and try to discern WHY it happens.

I will try to leave some notes on my matchup theories in this section in the future.

LINETEAMTOICF%HDCF/60HDCA/60OPP
Dadanov-Barkov-HoffmanFLA15039.029.612PHI2
Huberdeau-Trocheck-VatranoFLA24652.489.1314.34PHI1
Giroux-Couturier-KonecnyPHI111658.228.277.24FLA2
Lindblom-Patrick-VoracekPHI29239.8912.399.78FLA1
Simon-Crosby-RustPIT11956.7612.636.31NJ2
Hagelin-Malkin-HornqvistPIT22065.12273NJ1
Hall-Zajac-PalmieriNJ1----PIT2
Johansson-Zacha-BrattNJ2----PIT1
Roussel-Horvat-ErikssonVAN11866.6713.333.33NYI2
Goldobin-Pettersson-VirtanenVAN22458.742.55NYI1
Lee-Barzal-BaileyNYI11859.26103.33VAN2
Ladd-Nelson-EberleNYI2----VAN1
Perlini-Stepan-KellerARI117503.5317.65DET1
Panik-Galchenyuk-FischerARI2933.33020DET2
Helm-Larkin-ManthaDET19056.259.3310.66ARI1
Nyquist-Nielsen-AthanasiouDET21739.477.0514.11ARI2
Miller-Stamkos-KucherovTB19155.196.5910.54BUF2
Gourde-Point-JohnsonTB29151.7615.1610.54BUF1
Skinner-Eichel-ReinhartBUF11843.756.6620TB2
Sheary-Mittelstadt-OkposoBUF21867.7413.3310TB1
Ovechkin-Backstrom-OshieWAS12461.42515MIN1
Vrana-Kuznetsov-StephensonWAS277525.710MIN2
Parise-Koivu-NiederreiterMIN15645.5611.788.57WAS1
Zucker-Staal-GranlundMIN26556.56246.46WAS2
Tatar-Danault-GallagherMON117066.11810.23EDM1
Drouin-Domi-ShawMON22343.3315.6515.65EDM2
Cagguila-McDavid-DraisaitlEDM11266.67255MON1
Rieder-Nugent-Hopkins-ChiassonEDM2----MON2
Hyman-Tavares-MarnerTOR119248.0614.0611.56LA1
Marleau-Kadri-KapanenTOR25351.3812.459.05LA2
Iafallo-Kopitar-BrownLA17846.156.925.38TOR1
Kovalchuk-Carter-ToffoliLA25455.455.5512.22TOR2
Forsberg-Johansen-SissonsNSH12553.067.212SJ2
Fiala-Turris-SmithNSH29450.9312.129.57SJ3
Hartman-Bonino-SalamakiNSH3164021.4215SJ1
Kane-Pavelski-DonskoiSJ14549.4614.6613.33NSH3
Meier-Couture-HertlSJ29959.8711.5110.9NSH1
Sorenson-Thornton-LebancSJ31430.778.5721.42NSH2

Philadelphia does something strange with their line matching. It seems to vary depending on the opponent. They are a rare team that their top line is also kind of their shutdown line (Couturier is a shutdown center), and they are playing against Florida, whose top line is also shutdown (more shutdown then FLA2). So I am not 100% what’s going to happen there tonight.

Minnesota lines keep shifting around, including lines 1 and 2 switching back and forth – just know that Koivu is their shutdown guy, and will see the top competition 9 times out of 10.

The Islanders have earlier in the season kept Barzal away from top competition, but that may be shifting now. With Ladd back, it throws a wrench in the whole thing. A situation to pay attention to.

Detroit’s lines are so mediocre and even that its hard to tell what lines they are going to match since they seem to shift them often. I think DET3 ends up matching OPP2 when the opponent has 3 solid lines but never sees them when OPP3 is pretty meh. Another hard situation.

San Jose plays Thornton against OPP2, so when he moves lines, that’s when strange things happen. It should not be strange tonight.

Kopitar is THE shutdown center, and will always see top competition, despite being on the 1st line. Normally an exception to the rule.

I do not know what NJ is going to do with Hischier out, especially since PIT causes matchup problems inherently. I am actual clueless here.

Remember to check all lines later in the day for any changes!

GPP Stacks

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Popular Plays

WAS1 – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie ($19600)

I know deep in my heart that I can’t stand the Capitals, but my wallet has no such inhibitions. The Caps are trying to break a little slump it looks like, by putting these 3 together and getting some things going. These three have not played together in quite some time, but with Ovi’s general nature and their power-play familiarity, they could easily smash here. I imagine many people will see the lines today and see this and fire it up. Likely high owned, but definitely has plenty of upside.

UPDATE: Tom Wilson‘s suspension has been reduced and is eligible to play tonight. Whether he does or not, I have no idea. I hope not. Pay attention closer to lock to find out for sure. I don’t think if he is ready to play necessarily. If that is the case, I do not know how popular that will be, and I will likely be off of it, and onto more TB1.



EDM1 – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Drake Caggiula ($17600)

If you knew me, you would know that I have a man-crush on Draisaitl, and when you pair him with McJesus, good things are going to happen. Despite the fact that they are playing against Montreal, who has played extremely well this season both defensively and puck-possession wise, this offense flows through Connor, and whether they score one goal or six, he’s going to have a piece of it. I am also happy to not have to write the name “Ty Rattie” anymore. Except for that last time just now.

TB1 – Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and J.T. Miller ($19800)

I always love Tampa here, but they are on the road against what has been a pretty solid Buffalo team. This is one of those 10-15% owned plays every night but should not exceed that in this matchup on this large of a slate. With Hedman back, I can add him too if you have the salary.

Mid-Range Options

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LA2 – Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, and Ilya Kovalchuk ($12900)

I am going back to the well here. They haven’t had any production in a week, and Toffoli is still a mere $3500 on DK, which is criminal for a 26-year-old that scored 24 goals last year with much worse linemates. My biggest issue here is that they may get the Kadri line by default, but hopefully the coach will try and avoid that (if he was smart, is what I mean). Pair that with 2 pieces of the PP1 and we have an extremely cheap line of pure goal scorers that can break a slate open. I doubt they are owned much since they have been together more than a week and have not smashed yet. It’s coming. If you want to use Doughty with these three, I can endorse that as well.

NSH2 – Kevin Fiala, Kyle Turris, and Craig Smith ($13,200)

For a second line of this caliber, the price sure is right. Granted they are on the back end of a back-to-back, this line has played together a long time and they know how to get it done. I was on this team last night, and they managed to pot a goal, and I will likely count on them again, at hopefully low ownership. They should see Joe Thornton‘s line mostly, and they have not been so hot in the Corsi department, so they will at least get to take some shots here.

Contrarian Corner

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PIT1 – Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Dominik Simon ($14700)

Not sure the last time a Crosby line has been this cheap, but I can’t imagine this is popular tonight. Most of the time we are looking for lines that have 2 or 3 PP1 guys, and this one only has Crosby. The Malkin line has been very good in limited TOI as far as high-danger chances, but this one is more of a feeling. Sid is feeling it out there, and I still feel like there is an explosion coming. Granted they are on the road, NJ does not have a good defense. I could also play PIT2 here, but I think PIT1 will be far more contrarian just because of less PP pieces.

MIN2 – Jason Zucker, Eric Staal, and Mikael Granlund ($16900)

This is kind of a gut call. Koivu’s line has their hands full with that powerhouse of Ovi’s line, and this Kuznetsov line has only seen 7 minutes together this season. Washington is still giving up the most high-danger chances of any team in the last couple of weeks, and Minnesota could stand to score a few goals here.

Goalies

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There is no real expensive option tonight that looks like a slam dunk, so these are all GPP plays with not a ton of safety.

Casey DeSmith ($7500) – Goalie is looking strange tonight, and I am awkwardly going to recommend several road goalies. DeSmith looks good and has currently displaced a struggling Matt Murray, going into Jersey tonight that is missing its first line center and has played some terrible defense. NJ does shoot a lot, so there is save upside as well as the win upside.

Peter Budaj ($6700) – LA is at home and plays defense pretty well. Toronto’s scoring comes mostly from one line, which favors a team that has the best shutdown center in the league (in my opinion). He is very cheap, and he played well last year in Quick’s absence. I think even if LA loses, he still scores 3-4 points from saves and doesn’t get shelled. Risky, but has the upside in this spot for sure.

Thomas Greiss ($8000) – Probably the most expensive goaltender I will have tonight, Greiss benefits from playing a banged up Vancouver team playing the back end of a back-to-back as a big home favorite. He has been surprisingly solid and is easily in line for a win here. Not quite a slam dunk, but there really aren’t any of those on this slate.

Finishing Up

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This is going to be another one of those late day news slates, so certainly pay attention to Vegas, changes in lines, whether Tom Wilson is in the lineup or not, confirmed goalies, and all the usual stuff you need to be paying attention to.

I will be playing mostly single entry stuff tonight, and will probably throw a lineup in that $20 DK Tuesday GPP. I am probably going to play some more cash now that they added more single entry double ups.

There is a lot of uncertainty on the slate, so make sure you are informed at lock. Something could change that could break the slate for us. And please, don’t just read my picks and move on – use the information I am giving you, find your own information, insights, find your own edge. Finding your edge and then leveraging it is how we make money in this game.

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I am going to try and work on a non-picks article for Thursday or Friday, something more about process, or lineup construction, than just pure picks.

Until then, stay frosty.

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About Kevin Walsh

Kevin Walsh hails from Pittsburgh, PA and has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years and DFS for 5 years. He is a huge football fan and and even bigger hockey fan. Perfect blend of sports fan and math nerd. Try to look past the Steelers/Penguins bias. Follow him on twitter @FuryOTStorm

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