Daily Fantasy Sports

NHL DFS Picks 11-5-18

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Typically, I have an article out for the bigger slate on Tuesday, and I will still have that for you tomorrow.

Since we actually have a slate of decent size tonight, I thought we could dissect this one a bit, and maybe fit some game theory in.

Late news is something we have to pay attention to. It’s not NBA DFS level bad as far as scratches, but paying attention to lines being shaken up and figuring out the impact of those changes is going to be pivotal moving forward.


I will elaborate further and you will see what I mean.

NHL DFS Picks 11-5-18

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Game Theory – Late News

Late news is not as prevalent in the NHL as it is in other sports – most situations are known stemming from morning skate for each team. Every once in a while, a coach or a team can throw a curveball and scratch somebody late, or jumble the lines to look nothing like they did morning skate. It happens.

Let us also realize that I have usually completed an article like this before all the morning skates have completed, so knowing the lines could change after this is published is something that happens from time to time.

Case in point – last Tuesday, I recommended EDM1, which still had Kailer Yamamoto on the RW. It came out in the middle of the day that Yamamoto would be a healthy scratch, and Drake Cagguila would play RW with McDavid. He potted two goals that night, for an even cheaper price than Yamamoto has been.

I also said I liked PIT1, which at the time had Bryan Rust on the RW, and it ended up being Dominic Simon instead. Simon ended up with the goal, although the line itself really didn’t do much else.

I also had an extreme value play in Juuso Riikola, but it was contingent on Letang being out of the lineup, and he was a true game-time decision. That definitive news didn’t come out until about 20 minutes before lock.

That is the kind of stuff that if you are not on top of it, your lineups end up being broken. If its REALLY late news, it can end up being a slate breaker. You need to be paying attention at least somewhat.

We just need to make sure we are paying attention to morning skate news and how the lines have changed. It becomes easier as time goes on, but its something I thought I had to mention here. Either keep up with Twitter beat writers, or just make sure to check lines on Daily Faceoff or Left Wing Lock after 4 PM or so to make sure you have your lines in order.

Vegas, Special Teams, and Probable Goalies

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In the interest of space and ease of reading, I have condensed the team information into one handy chart. It has your opening Vegas lines, probable goalies (as of last night), and your special teams statistics. As always, check for line movement and goalie changes as the day goes on.

 TeamVegasProbablePP%PP/GPK%PK/G
Dallas5.5uBishop23.73.54853.08
Boston-153Rask26.83.1579.13.31
Montreal5.5uPrice14.33.7779.53.38
NY Islanders-128Greiss22.53.0880.53.15
New Jersey6.5uSchneider25.54.27804.09
Pittsburgh-168Murray25385.32.83
Edmonton6.5uTalbot21.73.5473.23.15
Washington-148Holtby35.93.25753.67
Philadelphia5.5uElliott14.63.4368.63.64
Arizona-138Raanta14.72.8392.13.17

Key Statistics

I managed to find a way to condense all the pertinent information into one handy table. I may eventually add the line matching to this, but I will keep that separate for now while I work out the kinks in the process.

As usual, please pay attention to things like goalie changes, line movement, and team lines being shaken up prior to puck drop. Seems like something strange has been happening every slate these days.

 LWCRWLINETOICF%HDCFHDCAHDCF/60HDCA/60
ShoreSeguinJanmarkDAL11944.83319.47363.1578
BennSpezzaNichuskinDAL21739.293310.588210.5882
MarchandBergeronPastrnakBOS114158.16251810.63827.6595
HeinenKrejciDeBruskBOS27853.28134103.0769
TatarDanaultGallagherMON113266.06382017.27279.0909
DrouinDomiHudonMON223464510.434713.0434
LeeNelsonBaileyNYI19443.48242015.319112.7659
BeauvillierBarzalEberleNYI25350.49111612.452818.1132
HallHischierPalmieriNJ112153.15341616.85957.9338
JohanssonZajacWoodNJ22264.296316.36368.1818
GuentzelCrosbySimonPIT13964.3814321.53844.6153
HagelinMalkinKesselPIT213953.69343014.676212.9496
Nugent-HopkinsMcDavidCaggiulaEDM13161.8212723.225813.5483
RiederDraisaitlChiassonEDM26452.4214613.1255.625
OvechkinKuznetsovVranaWAS14138.464165.853623.4146
BurakovskyBackstromOshieWAS23764.41436.48644.8648
GirouxCouturierKonecnyPHI18054.179146.7510.5
LindblomPatrickVoracekPHI26144.34151014.7549.836
PanikGalchenyukKellerARI13045.2864128
PerliniStepanFischerARI24345.128911.162712.5581

Line Matchups

So this is something I just started, so I want to go over how I did the first time.

 LINEOPPCorrect?Notes
BUF1CGY1YesI said Buffalo would split time against top 2 lines
BUF2CGY2YesBuffalo kept Eichel away from CGY2, as expected
CAR1BOS2YesStaal matched against top line, as usual
CAR2BOS1Yes
PIT1NYI1YesCrosby saw NYI1 mostly, but NYI2 was split
PIT2NYI2Somewhatbetween PIT2 and PIT4 pretty evenly
CBJ1DET1YesCBJ1 matched DET1 hard, but DET2 saw pieces of
CBJ2DET2SomewhatCBJ2 and CBJ3, maybe because DET2 is not good
MON1DAL1YesMON1 saw DAL1 almost entirely, MON2 saw most
MON2DAL2Yesof DAL2, but also DAL3
TB1NJ2NoWith the shuffling of lines, the TB2 became
TB2NJ3Yestheir defensive line, and matched NJ1, where TB1
TB3NJ1Nosaw mostly NJ3 and TB3 took NJ2
NSH1VGK1YesPretty straight forward matching here
NSH2VGK2Yes
EDM1MIN1SomewhatMcDavid saw mostly MIN2, and MIN1 was split
EDM2MIN2Nobetween EDM1/2/3 - not sure why yet
ANA1PHI2NoThey chose to put Getzlaf's line on PHI1 in effort
ANA2PHI1Noto shut them down I think, will need to monitor
SJ1NYR2YesCouture vs top line is something we have
SJ2NYR1Yesseen in the past and should continue

There was a couple of hang-ups on Tuesday, but mostly I was on top of it. So here are your line matchups for tonight.

 TeamOppNotes
BOS1DAL1Bergeron has always been a shutdown guy
BOS2DAL2Krejci is good defensively, also
NYI1MON1Playing Barzal against weakest competition
NYI2MON3Probably because of how many high-danger
NYI3MON2chances his line has given up
PIT1NJ1Same as last game pretty much
PIT2NJ2
WAS1EDM2WAS1/2 split time against top lines, but 70%
WAS2EDM1of time, WAS2 has OPP1
ARI1PHI3/1Looks like they try to get ARI1 some good
ARI2PHI2matchups, so they split against 1 and 3/4

GPP Stacks

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Expensive Options

BOS1 – Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak ($20,900)
Expensive as always, but BOS1 is pretty much the best line in hockey. I shouldn’t need to recommend them, but they are playing against DAL1 who, albeit a small sample, about a 20 point difference in their Corsis. Dallas is still tinkering with their lines while experiencing life without Radulov, and they may get exposed tonight. Going to have to find value to fit them in though.

EDM1 – Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Drake Cagguila ($19,200)

Another line I should never have to mention, but I am sure they will be popular tonight. Backstrom’s line isn’t an ideal spot, but the Capitals in general let up a lot of high danger chances, and McDavid does it all all of the time. Hard to have no exposure at all here.

PIT2 – Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Carl Hagelin ($17,800)

I know Pittsburgh is struggling. I’ve seen it. Maybe this is the homer in me, but they need to get right quickly, and with Sullivan behind the bench, they have bounced back time and time again after let-down performances. They have a chance to get their PP going here also because NJ takes the most penalties of any team on the slate. I can pair with Letang if I have the money, or add Crosby for the super power-play stack. High risk.

Others: NJ1, WAS1

Midrange/Value Options

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EDM2 – Leon Draisaitl, Tobias Rieder, and Alex Chiasson ($13,300)

Not sure if this ends up being popular, but the current iteration of WAS1 is giving up the most HDCA/60 and they have a pretty poor Corsi. Maybe they end up moving Vrana out of the line, but Kuz-Ovi have been giving them up regardless. This could be fairly contrarian. Maybe pair with Klefbom so you have two pieces of the EDMPP1 also.

BOS2 – David Krejci, Danton Heinen, and Jake DeBrusk ($10,200)

It is hard to recommend these guys, as they don’t generate a lot of high danger chances, but they have solid Corsi numbers, and DAL2 has been pretty abysmal so far as a line. My main problem with this line is that there is no PP1 exposure, but they are extremely cheap and have a chance to get some chances against this line at home.

ARI1/2

I cannot make up my mind on which of these lines I want. I want to lean on ARI1, but I hate rostering Richard Panik. ARI2 is also a bit cheaper, but ARI1 has been matching against 3rd and 4th lines some of the time. Arizona is favored at home, has a great PK, Brian Elliott is not a good goalie – there is a lot going here in our favor. I will likely have exposure to both.

NYI2 – Matthew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, and Jordan Eberle ($14,000)

The Islanders have been heating up a bit after some confidence boosters against the Penguins, and they like to have Barzal avoid the top two opposing lines when possible. Granted MON3’s Corsi numbers are decent, they don’t normally see this kind of competition. Barzal needs to get fired up here sometime soon, and he won’t be this cheap for very long. I will have some exposure here for sure.

Finishing Up

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I wanted to get a little bonus content out there today while I had some time to put something together. I hope the game theory section was helpful to somebody out there.

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There will be an article tomorrow for the nine game slate, and talk about what I did right and wrong for this slate…if time allows.

Until tomorrow, stay frosty.

About Kevin Walsh

Kevin Walsh hails from Pittsburgh, PA and has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years and DFS for 5 years. He is a huge football fan and and even bigger hockey fan. Perfect blend of sports fan and math nerd. Try to look past the Steelers/Penguins bias. Follow him on twitter @FuryOTStorm

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