Daily Fantasy Sports

NHL DFS Picks 11-8-18

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First, I apologize for not having something out for all of you Tuesday. I had a bit of life happen, on top of being sick.

I selfishly admit I am glad that I didn’t write an article, because that slate was not pretty for me, and most of my plays were duds.

Since we got them duds out of the way, let’s hit this 9 gamer hard!


NHL DFS Picks 11-8-18

Vegas and Special Teams

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As usual – all goalies listed are merely probable, and all spreads are opening lines. Always check the news for goalie changes, shaking up of lineups, or line movement. Always!

TEAMVEGASPROBABLEPP/GPP%PK/GPK%
Edmonton6uTalbot3.622.23.2673.5
Florida-135Luongo4.54203.4568.4
Vancouver5.5uMarkstrom2.9319.13.6281
Boston-250Halak3.1429.53.1479.5
Arizona6uUNDECIDED2.9215.83.1590.2
Philadelphia-153Pickard3.415.73.6669.1
Buffalo5.5uHutton3.7319.6377.8
Montreal-133Price3.9315.33.683.3
NY Islanders6uGreiss3.1420.53.1479.5
Tampa Bay-215Vasilevskiy3.6625.53.7389.3
Vegas-143Fleury3.411.82.6682.5
Ottawa5.5uAnderson3.227.13.3370
Carolina6uDarling3.7312.53.5369.8
Chicago-128Crawford3.33143.1376.6
San Jose-118Jones3.1321.33.4686.5
Dallas5.5uBishop2.7324.43.0680.4
Minnesota5.5uDubnyk3.2819.63.8585.2
Los Angeles-110UNDECIDED3.4216.72.9282.9

Key Statistics

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For the first time in a while on these big slates, we have no teams playing back-to-backs. The only rest issue is Florida, who is flying back from Europe, so really more of a jet-lag issue than a rest one. Teams have been known to come out flat after these intercontinental flights (small sample obviously). That is the only caution tonight.

I have incorporated my line matching into the chart with my key stats. There is also a column for Corsi Difference, which is just the difference in CF% between the lines that should be matched up against each other. The bigger the number, the better, just make sure you mind the sample sizes on some of these lines (any with less than 25 minutes TOI together).

I waited as long as I could to try and get updated and correct lines, but if the last couple nights are any indication, things can change at ANY moment. Sometimes even the most reliable sources are dead wrong. Last night was bad for that, and there were only three games. I hope tonight goes a little smoother on that front.

LWCRWLINETOICF%HDCF/60HDCA/60OPP LINECF% DIFF
SchallerHorvatVirtanenVAN11536.6749.81BOS1-22.54
GoldobinPetterssonErikssonVAN25357.6723.779.36BOS2-4.06
MarchandBergeronPastrnakBOS115559.2111.2218.24VAN122.54
NordstromKrejciDebruskBOS24861.738.751.94VAN24.06
PanikGalchenyukKellerARI13449.1514.114.88PHI1-5.73
PerliniStepanFischerARI24345.1211.1611.96PHI24.21
GirouxCoutourierKonecnyPHI19054.886.6615.3ARI15.73
LindblomPatrickVoracekPHI27040.9113.7120.53ARI2-4.21
Nugent-HopkinsMcDavidRattieEDM16751.648.0511.61FLA124.72
RiederDraisaitlCagguilaEDM21154.1710.90FLA221.23
DadonovBarkovHoffmanFLA11626.923.7511.14EDM1-24.72
HuberdeauTrocheckVatranoFLA21132.9407.28EDM2-21.23
SkinnerEichelPominvilleBUF19861.3820.212.7MON218.17
ShearyMittelstadtOkposoBUF2250300MON1-16.88
TatarDanaultGallagherMON115066.881823.32BUF216.88
DrouinDomiHudonMON24143.2111.712.49BUF1-18.17
MarchessaultKarlssonSmithVGK119059.1211.6824.35OTT225.35
PaciorettyEakinTuchVGK228000OTT132.26
DzingelDucheneStoneOTT17347.749.8621.36VGK2-32.26
BoedkerTierneyRyanOTT23833.774.7324.87VGK1-25.35
LeeNelsonBaileyNYI11064313.5832.09TB2-6.39
BeauvillierBarzalEberleNYI26245.3712.5823.8TB1-11.77
MillerStamkosKucherovTB17157.146.7610.5NYI211.77
GourdePointJohnsonTB26949.3918.2614.57NYI16.39
FerlandAhoTeravainenCAR115056.171638.45CHI14.43
FoegeleStaalWilliamsCAR214767.8917.1421.21CHI317.89
MartinookWallmarkSvechnikovCAR311065.2419.0913.79CHI228.88
DebrincatToewsSaadCHI11351.749.235.79CAR1-4.43
SchmaltzAnisimovKaneCHI23636.36518.15CAR3-28.88
KunitzKampfKahunCHI38507.51.2CAR2-17.89
KanePavelskiDoonskoiSJ12844.2612.859.48DAL1-5.74
MeierCoutureLebancSJ21751.3510.584.67DAL310.17
SorensonThorntonGoodrowSJ3885.7122.50DAL224.17
BennSeguinNichushkinDAL1165011.256SJ15.74
JanmarkSpezzaShoreDAL21261.5450.97SJ3-24.17
ComeauFaksaPitlickDAL34641.182.613.11SJ2-10.17
PariseKoivuGranlundMIN112548.6810.0825.88LA11.51
GreenwayFehrCoyleMIN2846.6703.85LA2-8.65
IafalloKopitarBrownLA15347.175.665.08MIN1-1.51
KovalchukCarterToffoliLA22955.328.274.33MIN28.65

One thing I will say about the line matching that came up in my research is that teams do not match lines exactly the same as they are listed on Daily Faceoff or Left Wing Lock.

Perfect example: On DFO, the Barzal line is listed as NYI2. When checking to see how teams match against 2nd lines, you are going to see that when they play the Islanders, they match the Nelson line, NOT the Barzal line. Coaches know that in reality, Barzal is the first line center, even if they aren’t producing as well right now and he may be listed there – they are matching to him, not to how the lines come up “officially” on the team’s website. There are a couple other teams where this happens (Minnesota comes to mind when they are healthy), so just pay attention to the “matchup” when it comes to Barzal specifically.

For instance, tonight, I have that TB2 likes to match with NYI1. I know this is backward in my chart, but I *think* TB2 will match against Barzal’s line, which in my chart is NYI2. For today, I will leave it that way to prove the point here. Some teams are just different with matching. Tonight will confirm my suspicions one way or another. If it turns out to be true all the time, I will alter it in my future charts. Just a heads up.

GPP Stacks

Popular Plays

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TB1 – Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and J.T. Miller ($19200)

Its hard to argue against playing this line any night, but now their price finally matches their production. Pair that with the fact that TB2 is actually MORE expensive by $600, and people are going to go here tonight without even blinking (and maybe make TB2 VERY contrarian). If you are pairing with a defensemen, Ryan McDonagh has been incredible in Hedman’s absence.

EDM1 – Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Ty Rattie ($19200)

I know, I know – death, taxes, and Connor McDavid being popular are the true 3 certainties in life. They are on the road, but Florida just got home from Helsinki. Not sure if they are going to come out flat or not, but its hard to argue the jet lag narrative. Florida’s PK has been total garbage. Barkov is good defensively, but he is currently skating with Hoffman, who isn’t great defensively and is also a bit slower than the rest of the line. McDavid could blow the doors off of these guys if he can escape Barkov.

BOS1 – Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak ($21400)

Probably the most expensive line of the night, and for good reason. I wonder about the matching, if they play against Horvat or Pettersson, but they are a huge favorite and are liable to blow up any night of the year. Can’t argue with this one.

Mid-Range/Value Plays

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MON1 – Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, and Tomas Tatar ($17500)

Though Danault does not have much of a floor, its hard to argue against their on-ice dominance as far as possession goes. They get a matchup against BUF2 that has no sample together really, but Sheary isn’t much of a possession guy, and Mittelstadt is still coming into his own. Montreal plays well at home, also, so I can get here for sure tonight.

VGK1 – William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith ($17500)

This was a staple for me last year when they were going off constantly, but this year has not gone their way. They could get a break tonight going against OTT2 who is giving out high danger chances like candy on Halloween. Ottawa is still overachieving a little, and that detrimental cabbie video is bound to take a toll eventually. Though Karlsson has been removed from PP1, his line needs a breakout badly. I am in on them tonight. Pair with Shea Theodore if you want a defenseman.



LA2 – Jeff Carter, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Tyler Toffoli ($14400)

What in sam hell is this pricing? LA doesn’t exactly have a lot of scoring opportunity, but Kovalchuk is finding his groove, and Toffoli is not scared to just shoot the puck. This should probably be chalk, but I am not so sure it will be. This is a slam dunk if Eric Staal misses and MIN lines are all bojangled. Makes a nice pairing with EDM or BOS. Pair with Doughty if you want to go there.

Contrarian Corner

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VGK2 – Cody Eakin, Max Pacioretty, and Alex Tuch ($14200)

If you DON’T believe in VGK1 coming alive tonight, you can certainly go here. Eakin is replacing Haula after his gruesome injury the other night, so that makes this line a little cheaper. Tuch and Patches play on the PP1, so I can pair Theodore with this line also. I don’t know exactly how contrarian this will be, but I can’t imagine people enjoy rostering Cody Eakin too much. Leave him off if you are mini-stacking.

TB2 – Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, and Brayden Point ($19800)

I alluded to this before, but how many people are really going to see that this line is more expensive than Stammer and Kuch and still choose to play them? This could be the ultimate contrarian play. Both lines have solid matchups against lines that give up a lot of high danger chances – variance could make it so this line goes off and TB1 does nothing. It could happen easily. I would not go heavy here, but I am going to fit this in somewhere and have some exposure.

Goalies

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I apologize for never including a section for this here. I typically correlate my goalies with one of the lines I am stacking, but I will have a small list here with my favorite 3-4 goalies on the night.

Jaroslav Halak ($8200) – Biggest favorite on the board, at home, against a beat up team with 1 real line. As much as I like Pettersson, Boston should be able to handle them just fine.

Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8400) – Another big favorite, against a floundering team that is struggling to find their rhythm and identity. I will probably only go here on my Stamkos teams.

Jack Campbell ($7500) – This price is still criminal for a defensive minded team. Assuming he starts, I will be firing him up, especially with my Kovalchuk exposure.

Outside of these 3, it’s hard to be in love with any of the other goalies outside of just correlating them with your line stacks.

Breakaway

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First, I hope all my readers out there are enjoying the article as it progresses and evolves throughout the season. I think I am getting better just by trying to display what I do for these slates. I have all of you to thank for that.

Second, if anyone has any questions, concerns, ideas, or thoughts about my work, or how to improve it, display it, etc – I urge you to contact me and tell me what you’re thinking or ask me some questions. I would love to answer. Twitter is probably the easiest method, hit me @furyotstorm and I will get to you ASAP.

Lastly, I always hope my plays do well, but on big slates, there will always be lots and lots of choices. Trust your own research, look over the numbers, and draw your own conclusions.

Making your own choices will always provide a better process, even if the results don’t line up. Trust your instincts.



I should be back Tuesday for the next big slate, and hopefully, I can get to a non-picks style article next week also.

Until then, stay frosty.

About Kevin Walsh

Kevin Walsh hails from Pittsburgh, PA and has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years and DFS for 5 years. He is a huge football fan and and even bigger hockey fan. Perfect blend of sports fan and math nerd. Try to look past the Steelers/Penguins bias. Follow him on twitter @FuryOTStorm

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