Daily Fantasy Sports

NHL DFS Picks 12-6-18

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It has been three weeks since my last article, and for that – I apologize.

Life comes at you fast. I should be more available moving forward.

We are back though for a big 11 game slate on a nice Thursday night, so let’s break it down.


NHL DFS Picks 12-6-18

Vegas

GAMEAWAY GOALIEHOME GOALIE
CBJ @ PHI -110, 6uBobrovskyUNDECIDED
NYI @ PIT -190, 6.5uGreissUNDECIDED
DET @ TOR -290, 6uHowardAnderson
COL @ FLA -128, 6uVarlamovUNDECIDED
MON -125 @ OTT, 6.5uPriceAnderson
BOS @ TB -168, 6uRaskUNDECIDED
MIN @ CGY -145, 6uDubnykSmith
WAS -113 @ ARI, 6uHoltbyUNDECIDED
NSH -185 @ VAN, 5.5uRinneMarkstrom
CHI @ VGK -225, 6uCrawfordFleury
NJ @ LA -120, 5.5uKinkaidQuick

Lots of undecided goalies at the time of me writing this, so make sure you check closer to lock, as always! This is just an unfortunate circumstance of having to write everything early enough to get out to the public. Just pay attention to what is going on.

Key Statistics

LINETOICF%HDCF/60HDCA/60
CBJ126551.8610.419.5
CBJ220452.631010.29
PHI122460.989.378.83
PHI29506.6620
NYI11265015.7113.33
NYI210544.59.7112
PIT111364.3518.055.3
PIT23854.0512.6311.05
DET11646.1511.2511.25
DET24653.135.2113.04
TOR133651.0914.2811.25
TOR213149.1211.4513.74
COL140952.0111.4411
COL21854.5516.6613.33
FLA13254.8413.129.37
FLA21862.0706.66
MON128564.0717.268.42
MON214850.7214.5915
OTT14432.9710.915
OTT210053.4514.48.4
BOS13357.3510.910.9
BOS23257.697.55.62
TB13051.61104
TB210052.1713.215
MIN118653.9717.747.09
MIN25951.9613.226.1
CGY130356.0713.2614.05
CGY210657.0711.328.49
WAS19250.579.1312.39
WAS23156.9217.4117.41
ARI13848.6515.7817.36
ARI23443.6610.5815.88
NSH12752.9417.7717.77
NSH21962.515.7812.63
VAN11934.219.476.31
VAN21069.2300
CHI12843.410.7115
CHI21043.751212
VGK134155.4410.388.62
VGK295013.336.66
NJ120652.7516.318.44
NJ23752.384.868.1
LA123445.718.468.46
LA28058.3316.512

As far as rest goes, we have the Blackhawks on a back-to-back, and the Predators playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Other than that, rest should not be an issue for anyone.

Line Matching

PLAYERSLINEPLAYERSOPP LINE
Giroux-Couturier-KonecnyPHI1Atkinson-Dubois-PanarinCBJ1
Van Riemsdyk-Patrick-SimmondsPHI2Foligno-Jenner-AndersonCBJ2
Guentzel-Crosby-SimonPIT1Nelson-Lee-EberleNYI1
Pearson-Malkin-HornqvistPIT2Beauvillier-Barzal-BaileyNYI2
Hyman-Tavares-MarnerTOR1Athanasiou-Nielsen-VanekDET2
Marleau-Matthews-KapanenTOR2De La Rose-Glendening-RasmussenDET3
Lindholm-Kadri-BrownTOR3Nyquist-Larkin-AbdelkaderDET1
Huberdeau-Barkov-HoffmanFLA1Rantanen-MacKinnon-LandeskogCOL1
Dadanov-McCann-VatranoFLA2Jost-Compher-WilsonCOL2
Batherson-Duchene-DzingelOTT1Tatar-Danault-GallagherMON1
Tkachuk-White-StoneOTT2Drouin-Domi-ShawMON2
Gourde-Stamkos-PalatTB1Wagner-Kuraly-BackesBOS3
Johnson-Point-KucherovTB2Marchand-Cave-PastrnakBOS1
Killorn-Cirelli-MillerTB3Donato-Krejci-DebruskBOS2
Gaudreau-Monahan-LindholmCGY1Koivu-Parise-CoyleMIN2
Tkachuk-Backlund-BennettCGY2Zucker-Staal-GranlundMIN1
Galchenyuk-Schmaltz-KellerARI1Eller-Burakovsky-Smith-PellyWAS3
Fischer-Stepan-PanikARI2Vrana-Kuznetsov-ConnellyWAS2
Hinostroza-Richardson-KempeARI3Ovechkin-Backstrom-WilsonWAS1
Virtanen-Horvat-GranlundVAN1Hartman-Johansen-FialaNSH1
Leivo-Pettersson-BoeserVAN2Tolvanen-Jarnkrok-SmithNSH2
Smith-Karlsson-MarchessaultVGK1Fortin-Strome-DebrincatCHI3
Tuch-Eakin-LindbergVGK2Kampf-Kahun-KaneCHI2
Bellemare-Reaves-CarrierVGK4Saad-Toews-PerliniCHI1
Iafallo-Kopitar-BrownLA1Hall-Hischier-PalmieriNJ1
Clifford-Carter-ToffoliLA2Johanssen-Zacha-NoesenNJ2

Just a warning, we only have one sample of Arizona home games with Nick Schmaltz in the lineup, so I am far from 100% confident of those matches – that is just what they did 5 days ago against the Blues.

Same with Tampa Bay, they move their lines around so much all the time, and none of them are really dedicated shutdown guys (outside of Killorn maybe, he is just a pest), so another word of caution there.

Finally, Vegas has been doing some weird stuff with their lines, and it could have been matchup dependent. They put the big guys out against Ovechkin last home game and put the screws to them. Chicago is a team they may not want to get as physical with, but really Kane is the only one on that line that can burn them with some speed, so it’s hard to say. I think they are still keeping Karlsson’s line away from top opposition, so if it’s not VGK4 on CHI1, it will likely be VGK3. Worst case is VGK2 takes CHI1, and VGK3 takes CHI2. This is going to be one to pay attention to going forward, just to see how much Gallant is playing the matchups.

GPP Stacks

I am mostly a single entry player for hockey, so that causes my player pool to be reasonably narrow. I would love to multi-enter the low stakes contests on DraftKings, but the sizing is so poor that it has no real incentive other than “practice” if I ever become bigger time and multi-enter the $8 or the $33. Still, quite a ways to go before I reach that level.

Considering this is an 11 game slate, I could name tons and tons of plays that may all have reasonable implications of doing well tonight. On big slates, you have to take a stand on the plays you like the best, and not spread yourself too thin. Unless you are entering 150 lineups in a contest, I would narrow down your pool considerably. My plays listed here will likely be all the stacks I consider playing tonight.

Power (Popular) Plays

TOR2 – Auston Matthews, Patrick Marleau, and Kasperi Kapanen ($17600)

Toronto loves having Matthews back – now when they are at home, they get to match however they please and have their way with their opponent even more than usual. Kadri takes the top line regardless of what “line” he is on, so that leaves the 2nd line to Tavares, and the 3rd line to Matthews, which in most cases just isn’t even fair. While I will have some Tavares line exposure, I lean Matthews here as Detroit’s depth falls off drastically after their top line. If you want more PP1 exposure (as Matthews is the only participant there), you can pair up with Morgan Reilly if you can find the salary relief elsewhere. Either way, fire them up.

Another warning – check to see if Nylander makes his season debut, it may very well be on this line in place of Kapanen.

PIT1 – Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Dominic Simon ($16600)

Hard to deny that Crosby has been on absolute fire lately, and getting a home matchup against the Islanders should bode well for Crosby and the Penguins. Malkin’s line is in play here, too, for sure, especially while Hornqvist is also on fire. Letang is an excellent option for an add-on defenseman that gives you more PP1 exposure.

COL1 – Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog ($22700)

I rarely resist the urge to roster them every night, because they can go ballistic any night, any week, against any opponent. Though they are on the road, the Panthers are struggling to find any sort of cohesion among their lines, especially after the devastating Trocheck injury. They are prohibitive in price, at least, so maybe they won’t be more than 20% owned, but its hard to ignore them on any slate. Finding value will be the key to fitting them in.

Mid-Range/Value Dump-Ins

MON1 – Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, and Tomas Tatar ($15900)

While not nearly as flashy as MON2 as far as pure goal scoring goes, they have maintained a ridiculous 64% CF over a very long sample, and that is hard to argue with. They are matched up against what may be the worst CF% on the slate in OTT1 (much smaller sample), and they are $2600 cheaper than their second line counterpart. Can fit pretty easily with something like PIT1 or TOR1. I will have some exposure here.

VGK1 – William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith ($16400)

Not traditionally a value play by any means, Vegas is one of those teams that plays a tight 3-2 type game, or they obliterate their opponent 7-2. If the latter happens, VGK1 is usually the reason why. I consider this a value in comparison to what they were doing last season when each guy was ~$1200 more expensive and still worth rolling with every night. The second line has been the one that has been hot lately, but they just lost Max Pacioretty to injury. Look for Vegas to lean on their top line tonight. I have them matched against CHI3, featuring newcomer and old sieve, Dylan Strome. He has been productive but is still giving up those high-danger chances. I have a hunch on this one, and at this price, could be a slate breaker.

Contrarian Corner

MIN1 – Eric Staal, Jason Zucker, and Mikael Granlund ($17200)

Hardly a mid-range line on a normal night, these guys always have that possibility of going off. They get to see CGY2, which is normally a shut-down line, but the absence of Frolik hurts the fabric of that line more than is showing on the stat sheet. At this price, with the other options on this slate, this may go totally overlooked. I will have at least some exposure to this line, and possibly also MIN2 if I end up multi-entering.

NJ1 – Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier, and Kyle Palmieri ($18500)

Most people don’t go after the Kings as a team to target, as they tend to limit the damage. They aren’t a great team, but they rarely get blown out of the water. It’s the lowest total on the board with Jersey traveling all the way west – this is normally a stay-away spot. They will have to deal with Kopitar and that shut down line also. Because of all of these things, they should go relatively unowned. This one is high-risk.

Goaltending

As usual, I generally correlate my goalie to one of my stacks, but here are my top ones for tonight:

Garret Sparks (TOR) – $8300 – Biggest favorite on the board at home against the hapless Red Wings, coming off allowing only 1 goal in the last two games on 73 shots. Easy cash play, definite GPP upside.

Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK) – $8300 – Second biggest favorite, Vegas is heating up and Chicago is cooling down.

Casey DeSmith (PIT) – $7900 – Speaking of heating up, the Penguins are amidst trying to turn it around, and are home favorites here. This one is more of a risk. GPP Only.

Jonathan Quick (LA) – $7500 – Quick rarely gives up more than 2-3 goals, you are more banking on LA’s ability to score enough goals to actually win. Saves will give a safe floor, but the win is far from guaranteed.

Finishing

Big slates always present big problems, as there are just so many options. Again, I would suggest making hard stands on plays and playing tight on big slates. They tend to get away from you and you play too much of your bankroll.



I should have these articles out more regularly than the last few weeks. Maybe I will finally get around to writing those non-picks articles.

Until then, stay frosty.

About Kevin Walsh

Kevin Walsh hails from Pittsburgh, PA and has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years and DFS for 5 years. He is a huge football fan and and even bigger hockey fan. Perfect blend of sports fan and math nerd. Try to look past the Steelers/Penguins bias. Follow him on twitter @FuryOTStorm

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  1. Pingback: NHL DFS Picks 12-13-18 - Fantasy Six Pack

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