Daily Fantasy Sports

NHL DFS Picks 3-15-19

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After a bit of a hiatus, I have returned on this 10-game slate.

Despite not having any material out to you, I have still been relatively active, and I may be on the brink of something here.

With only 10-12 games left for each team, we are almost done with this NHL season, so let’s make that money before playoffs.


NHL DFS Picks 3-15-19

Vegas/Special Teams

TeamVegasProbablePP%PP/GPK%PK/G
Philadelphia6.5uHart17.12.8877.92.87
Toronto-180Anderson22.92.5680.32.54
Carolina6uMrazek17.43.2581.93.04
Columbus-130Bobrovsky15.22.8384.82.63
Vegas-128Fleury17.22.981.82.83
Dallas5.5uBishop19.82.5682.73.01
NY Rangers6oLundqvist19.42.8778.33.23
Calgary-300Rittich21.83.479.73.1
Anaheim5.5oGibson162.6379.53.3
Colorado-168Varlamov22.43.5777.43.47
New Jersey6uSchneider183.1383.83.21
Vancouver-150Markstrom14.93.1680.73.14

As usual, note that the goaltenders may change during the day from what I have listed here, as well as watching line movement.

Hot Streak

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These are the lines that have had the most even-strength success over their last 10 games:

LineGFGACF%PDO
CAR17459.1101.8
VGK17556.1101.1
VGK25359.4100.2
CGY25357.9102.5
PHI15064.1116.7
CAR25257.1113.1
CGY14556.796.5

GPP Plays

Popular (Chalk) Stacks

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CGY1 – Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Elias Lindholm – Add-On Defensemen – Mark Giordano

Anyone with a brain can look at Calgary’s late game firestorm the other night, then look to see their opponent today, and just jam this into their lineup. This line at home against the flailing Rangers is as easy as a slam dunk as you can get on paper – but their price is going to be prohibitive. Finding the right value to pair with them is going to be the key if you go this route.

TOR1/TOR2/TORPP1 – Add-On Defensemen – Morgan Rielly

Looking at this the night before, it’s hard to say which of these lines will be MORE popular, but playing against the Flyers at home in the highest total against a team that is on the wrong side of a back to back makes one of these lines chalk – if not both. I particularly like TOR2 so long as Nylander stays on it, just because he is finally finding his form and earned a spot next to Matthews finally. Both of these lines went off in their 5-4 loss to Chicago, so playing a PP stack here is also very viable.

Mid-Range/Value Plays

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VGK1 – William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith – Add-On Defensemen – Colin Miller

I couldn’t stomach putting them in my gut calls again, only to make me look foolish again. However, their recent numbers are encouraging. They have scored 7 even strength goals in the last 10 and they still have a barely above average PDO over that stretch – it means they are doing the right things to put goals on the board. I will take a stab somewhere with them where most others will go to VGK2 (who are also viable).

CAR1 – Sebastian Aho, Justin Williams, and Nino Niederreiter – Add-On Defensemen – Justin Faulk

While this is hardly a “mid-range” play, they may end up a bit overlooked with all the Calgary and Toronto love. Columbus has been better of late, but can still give up goals to strong teams, and Carolina is certainly a contender. These two teams are fighting for their lives and a Carolina win puts them pretty far ahead of Columbus, so they are looking to win here. This is a big game. Play accordingly. This is crunch time now.

VAN2 – Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Josh Leivo – Add-On Defensemen – Alexander Edler

This line has been relatively cold lately, as Vancouver continues to sink in the standings. It doesn’t help that Pettersson keeps getting targeted out there. However, we are talking about a home team and a strong line against a team that is so decimated with injuries playing a bunch of young guys and other nobodies. Jersey has been putting up a fight, and they still play at the glacial pace, but this line is every bit as explosive as any and could light up the scoreboard in that late night hammer.

Contrarian Corner

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CGY2 – Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, and Michael Frolik

While everyone scrambles to play CGY1 and the majesty that is Johnny Gaudreau, this line has no real competition here either. Vegas expects the Flames to score a lot of goals, and provided Gaudreau doesn’t score all of them, this line could end up being the slate breaker. Take a shot here on an easy pivot off the chalk.

Gut Call (1-3-3)

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I just continue to die on the VGK1 hill. I think its time for me to get off. Vegas has become such a complete team, it’s hard to target one line to score multiple goals anymore. While they didn’t blow up your lineup last time, they didn’t win you any big tournaments either, so I will count that one as a draw.

CBJ2 – Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Josh Anderson

Columbus is showing how deep their scoring can be, with the current line configuration having Bjorkstrand on the 4th line, which is just criminal. In the meantime, we have this Duchene-Dzingel duo that has some experience playing with each other. Add in the workhorse that Josh Anderson is, and we have a chance at multiple points here while Carolina is trying to corral the CBJ1 super-line.

I need a gut call to hit one of these times. I have decided its tonight. Let’s make all the money with this line.

Netminders

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As usual, I typically correlate my goalies with my lines, but my top 3 on raw points:

David Rittich

Frederik Andersen

Sergei Bobrovsky (GPP Only)

Finishing Up

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As always, you should be cognizant of what you are entering – size, payouts, and your personal bankroll management – at all times. With that in mind, in the interest of full disclosure, I will tell you that towards the end of the season, I tend to go off the rails a little bit with what I am playing and the amount of which I have in play.

I do not advise that anyone do as I am doing in this manner.

I have been multi-entering the low stakes stuff on DK, but if you have never done so, I would not suggest trying it now unless you really want a taste of doing so. Using an optimizer to make 150 lineups is a whole different animal than single-entry construction.


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Let’s make some money tonight so we can blow it during the playoffs on some degen slates.

Until then, stay frosty.

About Kevin Walsh

Kevin Walsh hails from Pittsburgh, PA and has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years and DFS for 5 years. He is a huge football fan and and even bigger hockey fan. Perfect blend of sports fan and math nerd. Try to look past the Steelers/Penguins bias. Follow him on twitter @FuryOTStorm

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