PlayLine NFL Week 1

by Keith Lott
2021 Fantasy Football My Guys

NFL Week 1 is nearly impossible to predict for numerous reasons. Now imagine trying to predict stats on PlayLine for cash!

However, thanks to Big Guy Fantasy Sports new Prop Bet Consistency Tool, we have a better chance of winning some money!

Each week I will focus solely on that Thursday Night Football game.

The NFL kicks off the 2019 season on September 5th at 8:20pm EST at Soldier Field in Chicago with the Chicago Bears hosting the Green Bay Packers.

PlayLine NFL Week 1

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We have two different contests that we are going to focus on in NFL Week 1 action on PlayLine - Welcome to the Jungle QBs and Cut The Cheese. In both contests, you have to predict what each player's final stat line will look like. We will do this using Big Guy Fantasy Sports new Prop Bet Consistency Tool to guide us towards our final predictions.

Welcome to the Jungle

Pass Attempts
Pass Yards

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers is at his best against a GOOD pass defense, according to the Prop Bet Consistency Tool Success Matrix with the Pass Yards slider set to 250. That's a good place to start when playing the Chicago Bears on the road.

With a new head coach and offensive system in place this season, it will be interesting to see just how the Packers operate on offense.

If you care at all about preseason stats, the Packers average the fifth LEAST amount of yards per game on offense. They are one of six teams attempting less than 30 passes per game.

Last year in Week 1, Rodgers only need 30 pass attempts to throw for 286 passing yards and three touchdowns. However, in a Week 15 loss, Rodgers threw the ball 42 times for just 243 yards, no touchdowns and one of his two interceptions thrown in 2018.

In what we should expect to be a low scoring, close game, I don't see Rodgers blowing up for a huge game here.

I plan on setting my PlayLine predictions for him somewhere in the 255-265 Pass Yards range with 30-35 attempts and near 25 completions.

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears

Trubisky has thrown for 220+ yards 11 times in the last two seasons, with six of them coming at home, including both games against the Packers at Soldier Field.

The Packers are considered a BAD pass defense, according to Big Guy Fantasy Sports, and in six games against BAD pass defense, Trubisky has gone for 220+ pass yards 66.7% of the time. He went over 330 yards against the Patriots, Lions and Bucs last year at home.

But before you get too crazy with your PlayLine predictions, the over/under for this contest is just 46 points and the Bears have an implied total of 26 points.

Chicago averaged 62 plays in their two games against the Packers last year and averaged 28 rushing attempts per game in 2018. That would leave 34 pass attempts for Trubisky which is right about his average attempts at home last season with 19 completions.

I mentioned preseason stats in the Rodgers section, so only fair I do the same here. The Chicago Bears are running the ball just 20 times per game in the preseason, tied for the third-lowest in the NFL! However, they are also attempting less than 30 pass attempts per game, thanks to a 23.3 first down percentage. Only the Denver Broncos pass attack has moved the chains less often!

Cut The Cheese

Receiving Yards

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

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Adams averages were better on the road last season, but both of his multi-touchdown games came at home in Green Bay.

Against the Bears last year, Adams caught five passes for 88 yards and touchdown in Week 1, at Lambeau. In Week 15, he caught eight passes for 119 yards but did not score a touchdown.

According to the Prop Bet Consistency Tool Success Matrix, Adams is more likely to go over 75 receiving yards on the road against a GOOD pass defense than at home against a BAD pass defense.

There is no reason to believe Davante Adams can't go for 7 catches, 90 yards and a score.

Pro Football Focus ranks the Bears secondary second overall coming into the 2019 NFL season with a top 10 pass rush too.

Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears

Last year, Robinson caught seven passes for 115 yards and no touchdowns, combined, in the Bears two games against the Packers. In Week 1, he led the team with four catches for 61 yards, at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football. In Week 15, at home, Robinson was limited to just 54 yards on three receptions. He was targeted seven times in both contests.

With the prop bet slider set to four receptions, we should expect Allen Robinson to finish UNDER, against a BAD pass defense at home. The Packers are considered a BAD pass defense.

He has caught at least four passes in 50% of games in the last two seasons.

Last year at home, Robinson only went for four or more catches three times! He also only caught a touchdown pass in two home games.

I suggest setting your PlayLine predictions for Robinson at three or four receptions, somewhere around 40 yards and no touchdown.

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Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers

Graham caught just five passes against the Bears defense last year in the two games. He totaled just 40 yards and did not catch a touchdown.

On the road in 2018, Graham went over 50 yards just twice. One of the six other road games was better than 34 yards!

Over the last two seasons, Graham has caught four or more passes in just 37.5% of his games played and gained 40+ yards in just 34.4%.

Odds are, Jimmy Graham is going to catch no more than 4 passes for about 35 yards and will not score a touchdown.

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