Fantasy Football

Six 2021 NFL Player Prop Bets

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The 2021 NFL season is right around the corner!  Dynasty, redraft, and best ball leagues are all ramping up, DFS is almost here as well. Another way to have some fun this season is getting into some player prop bets.

I’ve listed six over/unders I like going into the 2021 NFL season, via the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting lines move frequently, so keep in mind these lines are up to date as of the time of writing.

Six 2021 NFL Player Prop Bets

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Adam Thielen 9 Receiving TDs – Under

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In his career, Adam Thielen has only caught 9 or more touchdown passes twice, and last year was one of them. In 2020 Thielen caught 74 passes for 925 yards and 14 TDs. In 2016, a year with similar reception and yardage stats, he caught only 5 TDs. During his years as a higher-volume target in the Vikings offense in 2017 and 2018, he had a combined 13 TDs. I’m feeling a big regression in the touchdown department is coming for Thielen.

Joe Burrow 4,200.5 Passing Yards – Over

Smash that over. During Burrow’s injury-shortened 2020 season, his 16 game pace was 4,300 yards.  If you take out the injury game, that number jumps up to a pace of 4,435 yards. With an upgrade in his receiver room and the new 17 game season, I think he should easily hit that mark of 4,200 yards.

Chase Edmonds 650.5 Rushing Yards – Over

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Chase Edmonds may be in a timeshare, but I’m taking the over with confidence. According to an article on Pro Football Network, Edmonds is likely the lead back in Arizona. Edmonds averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season and has an average of 4.4 YPC over his career.

With so many carries vacated in Arizona after Kenyan Drake’s departure, even if he leads a 60/40 split with new backfield mate James Conner, I can see Edmonds getting to 650 rushing yards quite easily.

Darnell Mooney 705.5 Receiving Yards – Over

The Bears WR2 doesn’t have a big name, but I think big things are in store for Mooney this year.  He had a solid rookie year with room for much more. Quarterback play for the Bears in 2020 was not good, to say the least. For instance, in an article on PFF, Jarad Evans stated Mooney had an astounding 17 out of 22 deep targets deemed uncatchable. 

With the upgrade at QB through Andy Dalton or Justin Fields, as the number of catchable passes improves, so will his yardage. With Allen Robinson still there drawing top coverage, I’m liking Mooney’s chances to impress this year.

Carson Wentz 24.5 Passing TD – Over

Wentz suffered through one of the worst possible seasons a quarterback could suffer in 2020.  The entire offense was decimated by injury, and his confidence was at the basement level.

Now with the Colts, I’m willing to bet that Wentz is about to have a bounce-back season. A better offensive line, pass catchers, and a great running back room should give Wentz everything he needs to get back on track. If you need numbers, Wentz either surpassed or was on pace to beat the 24.5 line 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Kyle Pitts 7 Receiving TDs – Under

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Thought I’d end on a spicier take. Pitts would have to have one of the best seasons of all time for a rookie tight end, which is entirely possible. That’s also not to say he won’t have a great season, just recently Darren Waller and George Kittle have had incredible TE seasons with only a handful of touchdowns.

However, Matt Ryan has struggled in the past without Julio Jones, who is no longer there. Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst are still there and more established. Russell Gage could have himself a breakout season as well.  With so many mouths to feed in Atlanta, it may be challenging for Pitts to get 7 TD’s.


Please check out the rest of our 2021 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers!

About Garrett Ball

Love me some fantasy football! After having played fantasy football for a few years, I decided to write about my hobby to help others in the fantasy community! The only things I love more than winning fantasy championships are God and my wife and two daughters. But fishing comes close too.

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