Super Bowl LVI ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Nick Spencer

Welcome everybody to the Super Bowl LVI ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

An even 3-3 week on Championship Sunday brings the playoff record to 16-6 before the Super Bowl. With this being the last football game for roughly seven months I would just like to thank everyone for reading this season!

I wish you all the best of luck this Super Bowl Sunday!

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet, here’s what it’s all about. First, unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances each week. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly, you earn those points. The more points you earn, the more money you can win!

Super Bowl LVI ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford - 27.5 Completions - 90 Points - Under

From the lowly Lions to a Super Bowl appearance, Matthew Stafford has certainly come a long way in just a year. His move to the Rams worked out as well as any Rams fan could possibly hope.

Stafford averaged 23.8 completions per game this year, well under this 27.5 mark. In addition, he had hit this under in 16 of 20 games, a massive 80% hit rate.

Two of the four times he has hit the over were in his past two games, however, I don't believe this is truly a cause for concern.

His past two matchups were against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Francisco 49ers. Two teams who have been notoriously tough against the run this season. As a result, his passing attempts jumped. But that shouldn’t be the case here as the Bengals are fairly average against the run.

I’ll take an under with an 80% success rate any day of the week.

Cam Akers - 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns - 120 Points - Under

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Since his return, Cam Akers has carried the ball 17 times for 55 yards, 24 times for 48 yards, and 13 times for 48 yards. This is a total of 54 carries for 151 yards, or just a measly 2.8 yards per carry.

Now granted, as previously mentioned, two of these three games were against stingy run defenses. But still, those are extremely uninspiring numbers. And more importantly for this prop, he has yet to find the end zone since returning to action.

Don’t get me wrong, it is amazing that Akers is even playing this season after his injury, and I commend him for it. But he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. And on top of that, Darrel Henderson is expected to make his return in this game, further dividing the opportunities in the backfield.

In fact, Sean McVay has even said that the Rams are going to ride the hot hand this weekend between the three of Akers, Henderson, and Michel.

It seems like Thrive is giving Akers a little too much credit here, I'll gladly take the 120 points in hopes of more of the same.

Van Jefferson - 2.5 Receptions - 100 Points - Under

Van Jefferson is averaging 2.75 receptions per game this season. He has hit this under in 10 of 20 games, exactly 50% of the time. However, these numbers don’t tell the full story.

When the Rams acquired Odell Beckham Jr. midseason, Jefferson’s role began to change. Once OBJ was fully integrated into the offense, Jefferson experienced a significant drop in volume. Including playoffs, he has now hit this under in seven of his last eight games.

Jefferson just seems to be a bit of an afterthought in the offense right now, take the under here.
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Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon - 0.5 Rushing+Receiving TDs - 130 Points - Under

Mixon has not scored a touchdown and been under this mark in seven of 19 games this season (37%). He is being utilized as a workhorse back. So why am I taking the under? I believe in the Rams' defense.

The Rams are extremely tough against both the run and the pass. Football Outsiders has them as the fifth-best against the run and sixth-best against the pass. They also allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game this season. This means fewer opportunities for big plays and fewer scoring opportunities.

In addition, Mixon has cooled off in the touchdown department lately, failing to score in five of his last seven games.

Between the Chiefs’ O-line struggles and the Rams’ monster D-line, I’m willing to gamble on the unlikely but highly rewarding possibility that Mixon doesn’t score this Sunday.

Ja'Marr Chase - 7.5 Receptions - 90 Points - Under

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Ja’Marr Chase has taken the league by storm as a rookie and is already considered one of the most expensive players in the game today. But he hasn't needed a lot of receptions to do it.

Chase averaged 5.1 receptions per game this season, well below this 7.5 line. And he hit this under in 17 of 20 games this season. He doesn’t even average eight targets per game (7.8), let alone receptions, so this bar seems high.

Furthermore, he will likely be facing off against shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey for much of this game.

This is only a 90 point prop so if you want to stack it with Chase’s under on yards as well, I think that makes a lot of sense. It’s tough to bet against Chase, but this Rams’ defense is formidable and he is clearly the number one option they need to shut down in order to win.

Tee Higgins - 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns - 85 Points - Under

Tee Higgins has lost some of his star power potential with Ja’Marr Chase’s breakout but he is still a very good player in his own right.

Higgins had six touchdowns in 17 games this season for an average of 0.35 TDs per game. He hit this under in 12 of 17 games, or 70.5% of the time.

Thrive has this under-listed at 85 points, which puts it at an implied percentage of 57.5% of hitting. But based on his performance this season Thrive should've priced this prop closer to 60 points as he hit the under 70.5% of the time. And that’s not even accounting for the tough defense he will face.

A 13% edge (70.5%-57.5%) is a nice boost to our lineup, not to mention it is a very safe pick that can help to balance out some of the riskier selections in our lineup.


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