I had another up-and-down week, but I think I have figured Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out as we get to the Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets. Not only do I have the best spread and total bet for the game, but I have some of my best prop bets for the Super Bowl, including Taylor Swift, Usher, Gatorade color, along with player props as well.
The main thing that I stress to anyone betting on the Super Bowl every year: create a narrative. You need a game script for how the actual game will unfold, and then you pick your props from there.
Overall, my combined best bets are up 37.2 units. That means if you bet $100 on every pick then you would already be up $3,720 this year.
As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.
The Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.
All of the information for the Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets is up to date as of February 8th, 2024.
Tomlin’s Tips: Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets
Best NFL Bets
Each week I will play my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping content in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
Super Bowl LVIII Narrative
When San Francisco Has the Ball
When I started thinking about how this game will unfold, one over-arching theme really stuck out to me: the 49ers will not want to throw the ball. I know, I am not totally reinventing the wheel here, but hear me out.
First off, Brock Purdy is still extremely inexperienced. Purdy has the sixth-fewest starts for any quarterback starting the Super Bowl ever. He has the fewest starts of any quarterback who went into the season as the starting quarterback. And it shows.
Purdy was terrible to start in both of their playoff games. He was also atrocious in their biggest regular season game against Baltimore. The key factor in all three of those games was the 49ers trailing early. Purdy has not been good playing without the lead.
How can Kyle Shanahan avoid getting down early? Running the ball with the best back in the league, Christian McCaffrey.
More importantly, what has happened to Kyle Shanahan in the two biggest games of his coaching career (offensive coordinator for Atlanta in Super Bowl LI, and head coach of San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV)? The offenses Shanahan has led gave up 25- and 10-point leads respectively. How did that happen?
With the Falcons, once they were up 28-3 in the second half, they ran the ball just five of their final seventeen plays. Think a bout how insane that is to do. Against the Chiefs a few years back, the 49ers ran the ball just three of their final sixteen plays after going up double digits.
I think he will make it a point to not make the same mistake again and they will run the ball all night long.
When Kansas City Has the Ball
Obviously, when Kansas City has the ball the most talented quarterback in the history of the game has the ball. We all know what Mahomes can do. I am more worried about his surrounding cast and the trajectory of the entire offense.
Patrick Mahomes has just a single 300-yard passing day in the Chiefs’ last 13 games. He crossed 307 yards once all season. Since Tyreek Hill was traded, Mahomes has averaged 236 passing yards per game in the playoffs (mind you they are undefeated in said playoff games).
This is just a different Chiefs’ team than the one that was scoring 40 points a game and slinging it around for 400 yards passing a game. In their three playoff games, there has been a combined 31 points scored in the second half by both teams.
Kansas City has already shown how they will try to win this game with their offense: the same exact way they won the previous three. The Chiefs will try to get an early lead and hold on for dear life until Pat can make one play in the fourth quarter to seal it.
This has brought me to the realization that Andy Reid knows that outside of quarterback his team has been out-matched at almost every other positional group.
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