Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bets

by DFSx42
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bets

Welcome to the Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Playoffs: 49-51 +4.5665u
Regular Season: 275-226 +31.385

Official Record: 324-277 +35.9515
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 107-107 -.558u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

We went 9-13 for a loss of 2.08 units in the Conference Championships. A disappointing result but that's part of the process. Looking at our totals for the year, you can get a good idea of just how deceptive it can be when you see people post w-l records that don't account for unit sizing and vig. Despite having more losses than wins in the playoffs, we are still profitable because we're winning more of the larger wagers.

Likewise, you can see that in our degen bets where we are flat betting, we have an expected result of exactly as many wins as losses, and yet, we'd need to go 6-0 just to get back into profitability for the year, an incredibly unlikely result. Even if we have our implied edge of 54%, we're only going 6-0 about 2% of the time. So although you could argue "we've done alright" in those, alright is nowhere near good enough to make money in this venture. This is precisely why I included a degen category this year, to show that tiny edges are not enough to be profitable in this high-vig adventure.

This week is going to be different. I normally scrape the online odds for Super Bowl stuff (I'll still be doing that) but I happen to be on a road trip all of this week and will be hitting up several different brick-and-mortar sportsbooks and casinos across the USA. Therefore, I'm going to be including stuff found at those places for the first time.

Furthermore, the Super Bowl is a special time and place for prop betting. While we're normally restricted to such things as receptions and yards, this week we can bet on things like what outfits people will be wearing. If I were not going to be scouring lines and betting it myself, this would be a very daunting task of finding all the value this week.

I also want to address things like leaks. If I find out something like the color of the Gatorade or the length of the National Anthem, there is no point in sharing it here. If a small timer like me knows it, then assuredly thousands of others already know it as well and it'll be gone before I edit the article to include it and post to Twitter that there is an update.

So there aren't going to be any "true myspace locks" found here because that'll just be stat padding since the books will have taken the markets down before I can even finish publishing.

If I do post something like the color of an outfit or drink, be assured that is a purely speculative bet that I believe is +EV but not the result of a leak.

Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

This one opened at San Francisco -3 and 47 and moved to -1 before getting bought back to -2. I am not 100%, but do believe that RAS released San Fran, which resulted in the line moving the line to -2. The total has been largely unchanged, with a few books bumping it up half a point to 47.5.

RAS has not had the greatest year (especially in NCAAB) but their track record is solid so if you wanted action and didn't care who won then perhaps a bet on the 49ers -2 would be decent. Having said that, this one is so close to a pick'em that it's really a "bet who you like" kind of situation.

I currently have no bets on totals or sides, but will probably bet small in a vig-free situation. Check out Tomlin's Tips for some more game action!

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