Fantasy Football

Tomlin’s Tips: 2019-20 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Football Bets

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As we enter the 2019-20 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Football Bets, Tomlin’s Tips have gone completely in the green! If you bet $100 on every one of my best bets, you would be up over $500 now.

Betting the NFL Playoffs is almost a completely different handicapping style than the regular season.

In the regular season, you are factoring in motivation, bye weeks, travel time, rest, revenge factors, among many other things.

In the playoffs, there definitely is not a motivation factor; unless a team coached by Jason Garrett sneaks in. The playoffs also generally are going to have more even teams than your average NFL game.

It seems simple and dumb to say that, but it is definitely a factor in the handicapping of the game.

Most importantly to me though, is that there are so few games. The Las Vegas books are better at setting lines than almost anyone else is at doing anything. Seriously. There’s a reason the hotels are so high here. They are nearly perfect at getting 50% action on both sides.

When you get to the playoffs and there are four or two games for the whole weekend, they are even better. So you need to find the matchups within the game that can be exploited.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2019-20 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Football Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2019-20 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Football Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

So let’s get to the picks!

All of the information is up to date as of January 2nd.

2019-20 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Football Bets

Best NFL Bets:  1-4 last week, 39-45-1 overall

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend.  This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets around a million bucks.

New England Patriots -5 vs. Tennessee Titans

Saturday evening do you want to have the regret of missing out on betting on Tom Brady at home against Ryan Tannehill in a playoff game? I know, Brady has not looked great and lost at home to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. However, Brady and Belichick off of a home loss are 14-4 against the spread.

Tennessee led the league in Red Zone touchdown percentage at 75.56%. I know that seems like a random stat, but the difference between them and second place was roughly the same as the difference between second place and thirteenth. That screams of regression, especially against one of the best defenses in the league.

On that note, the Patriots were sixth in the league in sack percentage of drop-backs at 8.06%. The Titans were 32nd or you know, dead last in sacks allowed at 11.11%. So once out of every nine times Tannehill drops back he is getting sacked against an average team, now he is facing an elite defensive unit.

The one factor that scares me is that you can run on New England. The Patriots faced top tier or RB1 Fantasy backs four times. Those four players averaged 117 yards per game on nearly six yards per carry. However, I think that the 31 totes that the Titans force-fed Derrick Henry to win him the rushing title will take a toll.

New England should be getting Edelman back to full strength and with Brady’s security blanket keeping the Titans’ offense off of the field, the running game will be neutralized.

New Orleans Saints -7 vs. Minnesota Vikings

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Pro Football Focus has amazing statistical rankings across every major category of the game. They have Overall offensive/defensive rankings, as well as advanced metrics for passing and rushing, pass and run blocking, receiving, pass-rushing, coverage, run defense, tackling and special teams.

The Saints are ranked lower than seventh in just two of those metrics. (And in those two they are 17th in coverage and 14th in rushing, so still above average.)

This is about as well-rounded of a football team that you can have in today’s NFL. They only turned the ball over eight times ALL SEASON. This shattered the previous record of 12 giveaways. New Orleans also did all of this despite starting a backup quarterback for several weeks.

The Saints are also on a roll, covering eleven of their last fourteen games and winning six of their last seven outright with just the coin flip loss to San Francisco. In the last three seasons, the Saints are 19-9 against the spread after scoring 30+ points and 21-8 against the spread after an ATS win.

I just think New Orleans will be too much for the Vikings. They will get up on them early and be able to hold the ball. The Saints are 3rd in the league in time of possession and the Vikings are 26th. Drew Brees will force-feed Michael Thomas enough that Kirk Cousins will force mistakes.

Other Games Picked: 6-5 last week, 80-77 overall

I’ll put my picks in for all of NFL games. Some people are in pools where the pick every game each week.
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Buffalo Bills +3.5 at Houston Texans

Buffalo has lost three of four coming into the playoffs, but it’s a bit deceiving. They did not play their starters in Week 17 and the other two losses were coin-flip games to the Patriots and Ravens. Houston on the other hand is a terrible favorite. They are 1-6 against the spread this season as a favorite, not covering in that spot since Week Five.

I think Houston’s defensive shortcomings will lose the game for them. The Texans are 31st in defensive 3rd down percentage at 48.51% and 32nd in defensive Red Zone percentage at 71.43%. So Houston gives up a first down on almost half of the third downs it faces and a touchdown on nearly three-quarters of its opponents’ Red Zone trips.

Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

There are two areas that I think the Eagles have a massive advantage: when they run the ball and when they rush the passer.

The Seahawks were 30th in the league per Pro Football Focus in pass blocking.

The Eagles were sixth in the league in rushing the passer.

Seattle was also 29th in the league in tackling and against the run.

The Eagles were first overall in run blocking.

Philly is getting the seventh-most yards in the NFL before contact. Miles Sanders will be back and he will have a monster day.

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 0-1 last week, 12-6 overall

My brother and I’s favorite bet: you take 10 points extra either off or on the spread. You combine three different teams with the 10 extra points and all have to hit to win.

Patriots +5, Saints +3, and Saints/Vikings OVER 38

I don’t think either of these two will lose and the Saints might cover that number by themselves.

Game Total of the Week: 1-0 last week, 8-9 overall

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New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings OVER 48

The Saints are scoring 30 without breaking a sweat right now. Kirk Cousins is the king of the garbage time stats and backdoor cover attempt.

College Best Bets: 7-3 last week, 58-51-1 overall

Other Bowl Games, 10-4 last week, 24-12 all bowl picks:

  • Ohio Bobcats -8 vs. Nevada Wolfpack
  • Tulane Green Wave -7 vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
  • UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns -14 vs. Miami (OH) Redhawks

That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips: 2019-20 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Football Bets! Be sure to check out my first podcast as well as our playoff rankings!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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  1. Pingback: Tomlin’s Tips: 2019-20 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Football Bets - Fantasy Six Pack

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