After another good week with the college picks, I feel like I’m gaining steam as we head down the home stretch. With the 2019 Week 12 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips, I am trying to keep the train rolling!
While the college picks were great, I had a subpar week in the NFL. Overall, my picks are five games above .500, but a small loss with the vig. A great week here can get me fully on the right side though!
As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2019 Week 12 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them. The 2019 Week 12 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.
So let’s get to the 2019 Week 12 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips. All of the information in the Week 12 Tomlin’s Tips is up to date as of November 21st.
NFL Week 12 Football Bets
Best NFL Bets: 2-3 last week, 27-27-1 overall
Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets around a million bucks.
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New England Patriots -6 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott has played like a possible MVP as he tries to get a new contract. That is, if you just look at his numbers. Prescott has been bailed out on bad throws time and again by Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. They will not be able to do that against the Patriots' stellar defensive backs. Tom Brady had the "is he washed?" crowd out in full force last week. He shuts them up against a defense that gave up nearly 30 points to Jeff Driskel last week.
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 5-0 in coin flip games. They have just a single win by more than seven points, and it was early in the season against rookie Kyler Murray. Philadelphia is 1-3 in coin flip games. At some point, these numbers will regress back to the mean and I think it's this week.
Cincinnati Bengals +7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I know, the Bengals are the worst team in the league. I'm here to tell you that Pittsburgh is not 10 points better than them though. At least they are not that much better missing key pieces on their offensive line.
Between suspensions and injuries, the Steelers offense will be crippled (and they should be out a starting quarterback, but Mr. Choir Boy Rudolph somehow went unscathed for trying to take a man's helmet off, kicking him in the groin, and charging him). I think the Bengals keep this within a score with interior pressure.
Oakland Raiders -3 at New York Jets
Show me a team that blew out the Dwayne Haskins-led Redskins and I'll show you a team getting over-rated. With Haskins under center, the Redskins are the worst team in the league. The Raiders have won five of their last seven games, with the only losses being a coin flip on the road in Houston and unlucky on a bounce in Green Bay. They beat non-playoff teams and the Jets are a non-playoff team.
Detroit Lions -3 at Washington Redskins
Speaking of the dreadful Redskins, how depressing is it that the Lions have a 6th-round journeyman at quarterback and he looks better than Haskins? I'm laying whatever with whomever against Washington going forward.
Other Games Picked: 4-4 last week, 52-44 overall
I’ll put my picks in for all of NFL games. Some people are in pools where the pick every game each week. Home teams are in CAPS.
- Buccaneers +4 over FALCONS
- Broncos +4 over BILLS
- BEARS -6.5 over Giants
- BROWNS -10 over Dolphins
- Panthers +10 over SAINTS
- Jaguars +4 over TITANS
- 49ERS -3 over Packers
- RAMS +3 over Ravens
Survivor Pool Plays: 1-0 last week, 9-2 overall
One of the most popular games now is survivor pools. You pick one winner, no spread, every week. You can never use the same team twice.
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Cleveland Browns
I’m trying to go away from the best teams since if you are still alive you have probably already used them. This is a good spot for Cleveland, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is due for a bad game. I think the team rallies around the Garrett suspension and distraction, and Nick Chubb goes nuts.
Other Options, 2-0 last week, 21-4 on the year: New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots
NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 last week, 9-2 overall
My brother and I’s favorite bet: you take 10 points extra either off or on the spread. You combine three different teams with the 10 extra points and all have to hit to win.
Saints PK, Patriots +4 and Buccaneers/Falcons OVER 40
The Saint are not losing that game. The Patriots are not losing that game. Since the Week 2 Thursday matchup with an injured Carolina, Tampa Bay has not had a game total under 50. They had scored more than 20 in every game since until this past Sunday when a couple of calls/bounces went against them. This is probably my favorite teaser so far.
Game Total of the Week: 1-0 last week, 4-7 overall
N.Y. Giants at Chicago Bears, UNDER 41
I’m betting the under on the Bears’ offense until the end of the season. They are turning every game into a long-winded, try not to lose early, low-scoring, let’s try to win at the end contest. If Trubisky plays, I’m even more confident.
College Best Bets: 4-2 last week, 30-37-1 overall
Indiana Hoosiers +10 vs. Michigan Wolverines
The past three seasons, Michigan is 0-3 against the spread the week before they play Ohio State. Indiana is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against ranked teams. Since the Hoosiers lost to arguably the best team in the country, Ohio State, their only other losses are on the road to a ranked Michigan State and ranked Penn State, both by less than ten points.
Arizona State Sun Devils +14.5 vs. Oregon Ducks
Herm Edwards is 8-5 against the spread and 6-7 straight up as an underdog at Arizona State. He is 2-1 ATS and 1-2 SU as a double dog of double digits. The Sun Devils have just one loss by more than 10 in the past two seasons, and that was on the road at Top-10 Utah. They haven’t lost a home game by more than 7 since 2017.
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Oklahoma Sooners -17.5 vs. TCU Horned Frogs
I couldn’t believe it when I heard the stat that TCU is 11-24 in Big XII play against the spread over the last four seasons. So since the year they got snubbed by the College Football Playoff committee, betting against Gary Patterson’s group is one of the most profitable bets in sports. Oklahoma knows that they need style points or they have no shot at the CFP, so they will not stop scoring here. TCU can’t keep up.
SMU Mustangs +4 at Navy Midshipmen
Navy has played only three teams all season long that currently have a winning record. They were blown out against both Memphis and Notre Dame. They squeaked by Tulane with a three-point victory at home. I think the Mustangs are markedly better than Tulane.
Kansas State Wildcats +3 at Texas Tech Red Raiders
College Football Anti-Transitive Property: Texas Tech blew out West Virginia, who then went and beat Kansas State on the road. However, West Virginia started their backup quarterback who looked better than the starter. Kansas State’s quarterback Skylar Thompson also threw an interception in the end zone that ended the game. It was just his third pick all season.
That’s it for the 2019 Week 12 football bets in Tomlin’s Tips! Be sure to check out our staff rankings!
