Fantasy Football

Tomlin’s Tips: 2019 Week 14 Football Bets

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As we head toward the 2019 Week 14 Football Bets, Tomlin’s Tips are reaching a profit! My best bets for college, NFL, game totals and teasers are at exactly even. When you factor in my other games picked, I’m showing a small profit as we head towards the post-season.

On that note, with the college conference championship games this weekend, I am loving the college slate. I’m making the bold prediction that if my college picks are not profitable then I will retire from picking college games…. for a couple of weeks until the bowls start.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2019 Week 14 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them. The 2019 Week 14 Football Bets : Tomlin’s Tips will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit. With that said, if you need a new option for betting, tnbets.com is a solid option. It provides you with all the updated news you need to know about betting in Tennessee, including the best places to place them.

So let’s get to the 2019 Week 14 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips. All of the information in the Week 14 Tomlin’s Tips is up to date as of December 5th.

NFL Week 14 Tomlin’s Tips

Best NFL Bets:  2-3 last week, 30-34-1 overall

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend.  This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets around a million bucks.
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Washington Redskins +13 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay sneakily has the fifth worst rush defense per Pro Football Focus. Washington is ranked in the top half for rush offense, and that is mostly without Derrius Guice.

The second-year back from LSU has shown his explosiveness averaging almost eight yards per touch and scoring three touchdowns over the past three games. Washington will be able to shorten the game and keep it close.

Buffalo Bills +6 vs. Baltimore Ravens

There is officially a Lamar Jackson-tax. When you flip the lines with both of these teams’ home field boost, this is saying that Baltimore would be a 13-point favorite at home. I think another team is the driving force of this line: New England.

The Patriots have only played four of the top-20 pass offenses per PFF. They got Cleveland and Dallas in terrible conditions with torrential downpours. Houston and Baltimore blew them out.

Buffalo does not rely as much on the pass, but still was a blocked punt from beating the Patriots as well. I know that’s the scenic route to say that these teams are not as far apart as this line in indicating.

Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Arizona is coming off one of the toughest stretches of five games of any team in the league. They lost all five, but they were to the 49ers (2X), Saints, Rams and Buccaneers. That’s three of the top teams in the conference and a last-second coin flip game to Tampa.

The Steelers have won six of seven against inferior competition. All of their wins but one were close, either-or type games as well. I think the difference in competition is worth the field goal with the home dog.
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Oakland Raiders +3 vs. Tennessee Titans

It is pretty rare for an NFL team to lose two straight games by 31 points. I feel like it is the ultimate buy-low spot on Oakland. It is also a sell-high spot for Tennessee after a super fluky win over Indianapolis.

Combine that outcome with the previous lucky spots against Kansas City, Tampa Bay and the Chargers, and Tennessee is riding high. Just two weeks ago this line would have been at least flipped, if not Oakland by four, so I feel like we are getting value.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of regression with luck in games, Tampa had been one of the unluckiest teams I can remember in non-quantifiable data.

Between their kicker missing chip shots, referees completely botching game-altering calls, and Jameis having some of the unluckiest bounces on interceptions, the Buccaneers were caught in a downward spiral. The Buccaneers might be one of the best 5-7 teams ever.

Other Games Picked: 5-6 last week, 62-53 overall

I’ll put my picks in for all of NFL games. Some people are in pools where the pick every game each week. Home teams are in CAPS.

Survivor Pool Plays: 0-1 last week, 10-3 overall

One of the most popular games now is survivor pools. You pick one winner, no spread, every week. You can never use the same team twice.
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Minnesota Vikings

If you’re still alive then congrats to you! Last week was definitely the roughest week possible. The Vikings are the best bet though as you may not have used them yet.

Other Options, 2-1 last week, 26-5 on the year: Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 0-1 last week, 10-3 overall

My brother and I’s favorite bet: you take 10 points extra either off or on the spread. You combine three different teams with the 10 extra points and all have to hit to win.

Cardinals +13, Raiders +13 and Patriots/Chiefs OVER 37.5

So we put two home dogs in that I think might be the better team in both games and throw in the healthy Chiefs’ Over. That should be good to go, right?

Bonus 10-Point Tease: Packers -2, Vikings -2.5, and Eagles +1

Last week was the week of big upsets. This week the big favorites pull it out.

Game Total of the Week: 1-0 last week, 6-7 overall

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, OVER 42.5

The Ravens have been scoring on everyone. The Bills have found a groove on offense, scoring almost 28 points per game over the past three weeks.

Josh Allen has been fantastic since the bye week and I think this game is closer to a shootout than anyone looking at the team names would think.

College Best Bets: 4-2 last week, 37-39-1 overall

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Utah Utes -6.5 vs. Oregon Ducks, UNDER 47.5 (Santa Clara, CA)

The best bet here is the under. It looks like there will be some weather in NorCal on Friday night and the field for San Francisco is not the best footing already.

I also think Utah will play conservatively and shorten the game as they know a win probably means a trip to the CFP.

Baylor Bears +9 vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Arlington, TX)

Both of these teams are frauds compared to their records. Oklahoma is a blown four-touchdown lead, a missed 2-point conversion and a Red Zone interception from being 8-4.

Baylor is TWO missed field goals, an abhorrently atrocious officiating call that would have ended a game in overtime (yes, I’m still bitter), and a miraculous overtime catch from being 7-5.

With that said, Matt Rhule is 33-14 against the spread as an underdog and I think he keeps it close.

Central Michigan Chippewas -6.5 vs. Miami (OH) Redhawks (Detroit, MI)

This is probably the game I feel least confident about, but wanted to give a pick on each game. Miami (OH) will be playing their backup quarterback who was quite bad last week.

Central Michigan has been on a roll scoring at least 45 points in three straight games. The Redhawks can’t keep up.

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns +7 at Appalachian State Mountaineers, UNDER 57

ULL is 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games as an underdog of a touchdown or less. I think the best bet on the game is the under, so going with an under on a lower total is usually good for the team getting the touchdown.

Florida Atlantic Owls -7 vs. UAB Blazers

UAB had the easiest schedule in the country this year. I think they were on the inferior side of the conference and that has boosted their win total.

Throwing the records out, this spread should be closer to two touchdowns than one. Lane Kiffin will keep it full throttle into the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati Bearcats +10 at Memphis Tigers

Memphis was only able to beat Cincinnati by this exact spread last week when the Bearcats started their backup quarterback. Their starter will be back this week and it is just too hard to beat a team two weeks in a row.

Hawaii Warriors +14 at Boise State Broncos, OVER 63

So these two teams played on this same field in Idaho just a couple of months ago and Boise St. won by 22.

Since then, Hawaii has lost twice more while Boise comes in on a five-game winning streak. So why wouldn’t this line be higher? Sucker. Bet. Of. The. Week.

The previous game was a false final, meaning fumble luck helped the Broncos. Hawaii fumbled THREE times in the first half and lost all of them.

They still managed to put up 37 points, so I think we have a high-scoring shootout that is well within two touchdowns.
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Georgia Bulldogs +7 vs. LSU Tigers (Atlanta, GA)

LSU has scored 42 points in ten of their games, and at least 36 in all but one contest.

However, they have not played a defense anywhere near the talent of the Bulldogs’ unit. Georgia has only given up more than 17 points once this year and that took double-overtime.

I think Georgia will be able to score more on the weaker LSU defense and LSU will score less on the staunch Georgia defense than the line is giving credit for.

Georgia is 5-0 against the spread and 3-2 straight up in their last five games as an underdog.

Wisconsin Badgers +16 vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Indianapolis, IN)

The immediate take here is that Ohio State will win going away. They are the markedly better team and they need margin to hold onto the top spot in the CFP rankings.

However, Wisconsin is 6-2-1 in their last nine postseason games as an underdog. Their style can take over in these instances and I think they hold it close.

Clemson Tigers -28 vs. Virginia Cavaliers, Clemson -16.5 1st Half (Charlotte, NC)

THIS is the game where a team will put the hammer down when it comes to margin.

Clemson is somehow a sneaky defending National Champion. All everyone wants to talk about is the North Carolina game.

Well if not for a couple of meaningless, last-second scores the Tigers are 11-1 against the spread. Clemson is 16-2 against the spread in its last 18 games against the ACC, covering by almost 10 points per game. That’s 10 points ABOVE the three to four touchdown spreads they have on average.



They are the best team in the country and I think people start to find out Saturday night.


That’s it for the 2019 Week 14 football bets in Tomlin’s Tips! Be sure to check out our staff rankings!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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