Fantasy Football

Tomlin’s Tips: 2019 Week 16 Football Bets

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With the 2019 Week 16 football bets, we enter into bowl season! Betting college bowl games is almost a different type of handicapping than the regular season.

With bowl matchups, you can find that records are almost meaningless. I look more towards the level of opponents as well as against the spread records (ATS). With that, you can also find disparity in certain key statistics like 3rd down and Red Zone percentages.

I’ll give my best bets for the bowls in the upcoming week as well as picks on the other games. I’ll still have my normal NFL bets as well.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2019 Week 16 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them. The 2019 Week 16 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit. With that said, if you need a new option for betting, tnbets.com is a solid option. It provides you with all the updated news you need to know about betting in Tennessee, including the best places to place them.

So let’s get to the 2019 Week 16 Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips. All of the information in the Week 16 Tomlin’s Tips is up to date as of December 19th.

NFL Week 16 Tomlin’s Tips

Best NFL Bets:  2-3 last week, 34-40-1 overall

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend.  This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets around a million bucks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Houston Texans

I don’t know why but I just can’t quit Jameis. Even without his top two, Pro Bowl receivers I think he can still get it done against a playoff team. A sneaky factor of this game: Tampa has a better defense. The Buccaneers have better percentages in the Red Zone and on third down, as well as a better opponents’ completion percentage. They give up 0.7 yards per play less, which may not sound like a lot but it is a sizable margin. Winston will be able to score still so I will take more than a field goal in a shootout.
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New England Patriots -6 vs. Buffalo Bills

This is the biggest divisional game that the Patriots have had in over a decade. If they lose this, not only do they kiss a Round 1 Bye goodbye, but they have a do-or-die game in Week 17 for the division. Luckily for the cheaters up Boston way, the Bills will not be able to pass. At all. Buffalo has the 25th-ranked passing offense per Pro Football Focus, behind the likes of Jacksonville, Chicago, Miami and the Giants. The Patriots have the top-ranked passing defense that really knows how to take advantage of weak offense. This will never be close.

New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Tennessee Titans

Lost amid the egregious stat chasing by Drew Brees and Michael Thomas Monday night was the fact that the Saints have an inside route to the top seed in the NFC. Green Bay is a sizable underdog on the road at Minnesota Monday night and should lose. If New Orleans and Seattle win out then the Saints will have the top seed. Tennessee has also been a little smoke and mirrors with an easy schedule. After the luckiest win of the decade against the Chiefs (I mean seriously a blocked kick AND a botched snap in the last minute of the game) the Titans beat up on three free falling teams, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Oakland. Ryan Tannehill did not somehow become Aaron Rodgers.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 at Miami Dolphins

This line has moved almost a field goal since opening in the direction of Cincinnati. The Bengals are an NFL-worst 0-6 in coin flip games. In a matchup of the two worst offenses per PFF, I think the Bengals sizable edge on defense will win out. They have been feeding Joe Mixon as much as he can handle and he will run all over the Dolphins’ second-worst rush defense.

Philadelphia Eagles +2 vs. Dallas Cowboys

So switching home field here would make Dallas an 8-point favorite. On what planet should the Cowboys be an 8-point favorite in a de facto Division Championship Game? I mean, have you seen Jason Garrett clap or Dak Prescott throw? I promise you that this is not a reverse jinx. Hell, I kind of want the Cowboys to lose so that Garrett can be fired sooner.

Other Games Picked: 5-5 last week, 70-65 overall

I’ll put my picks in for all of NFL games. Some people are in pools where the pick every game each week. Home teams are in CAPS.

Survivor Pool Plays: 1-0 last week, 12-3 overall

One of the most popular games now is survivor pools. You pick one winner, no spread, every week. You can never use the same team twice.

Seattle Seahawks

Once again, I’m not sure what options you have if you are still alive.

Other Options, 2-1 last week, 30-8 on the year: New England Patriots

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 0-1 last week, 12-4 overall

My brother and I’s favorite bet: you take 10 points extra either off or on the spread. You combine three different teams with the 10 extra points and all have to hit to win.

Patriots +4, Seahawks +1 and Buccaneers/Texans OVER 39

This one seems easy enough. The Patriots and Seahawks are both fighting for their first-round byes and as for the total…

Game Total of the Week: 0-1 last week, 6-9 overall

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, OVER 49

As I’ve already stated I think Tampa can still score on Houston. Deshaun Watson should still put up four touchdowns on the Buccaneers as well.

College Best Bets: 1-0 last week, 47-44-1 overall

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Charlotte 49ers +7 vs. Buffalo Bulls

Charlotte has the most fraudulent seven wins in the country. They beat an FCS team along with three of the worst five FBS teams (UMass, Old Dominion and UTEP). Their best win was over Marshall who is easily the biggest underdog of the bowl season. On the other hand, the MAC was mediocre this year with ten of the twelve teams finishing with between five and seven losses. The MAC is also 2-15 straight up in the last three years and 3-8 against the spread in the last two years of bowls.

Kent State Golden Flashes +7 vs. Utah State Aggies

Utah State has arguably the best non-Power Five player in quarterback Jordan Love. However, Love has already declared for the NFL draft where he is seen as a 2nd-3rd round prospect. He also was recently cited for marijuana possession. There has not been a word on his suspension, but even if he plays I doubt he will be 100% focused. Toss in the fact that Kent St. has covered its last six games as an underdog to non-Power 5 teams with three straight up wins and I like the Golden Flashes.

San Diego State Aztecs -3 vs. Central Michigan Chippewas

The Aztecs have just three losses by a combined 13 points to three respectable bowl teams. They also had solid non-conference wins over UCLA and BYU. Central Michigan was built up by the weak MAC. They did not beat a team with a winning record all year and all five of their losses were by five points or more with a few massive blowouts. I just can’t get past that MAC trend in bowls so I guess give me the points.

Georgia Southern Eagles -4 vs. Liberty Flames

Liberty is the worst 7-win team in the country. They built their record by beating not one but TWO FCS teams, the worst team in the country UMass, another terrible team in New Mexico, and somehow beat New Mexico State twice. Georgia Southern has three phenomenal performances beating Appalachian State, blowing out rival Georgia State and hanging with Minnesota to lose by a field goal. This is just a difference in class here.

FIU Panthers +3 vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves

FIU’s coach Butch Davis is 8-1 against the spread in his last nine bowl games. The only loss was when his quarterback was injured in the first quarter in 2017. Arkansas St. has the 127th ranked defense (only 130 teams in FBS) allowing almost 500 yards per game.

Appalachian State Mountaineers -16.5 vs. UAB Blazers

UAB is another example of a misleading record. The Blazers won 9 games but just one of those wins was against a team with more than four wins. Their strength of schedule was 127th in the country, especially regarding the weak offenses they have played. That has boosted their overall defensive numbers. The Mountaineers 12-1 record is much more legit with wins over both SEC and ACC teams. Only Clemson had more wins against the spread than Appalachian St. They will be able to score all day on the Blazers.

UCF Golden Knights -17 vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

In the last fifteen years, every favorite of 17 points or more in a bowl game has covered. UCF is getting basically a home game in Tampa, and the Knights are 7-0 in the state of Florida winning by over 29 points per game with no margin less than two touchdowns. Their ATS record was not the strongest, but I feel like there was a bit of a tax on UCF, pushing spreads that would normally be 17 into the 21-24 range.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +7 vs. Miami Hurricanes

The Hurricanes are dead last, 130th, in the country at converting third downs with just a 25% conversion rate. Louisiana Tech is in the top third of the country in both converting and stopping third downs. Miami is also 1-8 straight up in its last nine bowl games, 2-9 ATS in its last 11 bowls.

Other Bowl Games:

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Hawaii Warriors +2 vs. BYU Cougars

This game is being played in Hawaii’s home stadium, which I think is even more of a factor for BYU. I mean, imagine if you have just gone through a winter in Utah and now you’re heading to Hawaii. How focused would you be? There really aren’t many trends or stat advantages, so I’m just going with that.

Eastern Michigan Eagles +11 vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Pitt has not won a game by more than 10 points all season. While I don’t think Eastern Michigan and the MAC are very good, I also think EMU can keep it close. In their last two bowl games, they are 2-0 ATS with the games being decided by a combined six points.

FAU Owls +3 vs. SMU Mustangs

FAU went 9-1 against unranked teams winning all nine contests by more than ten points. However, they lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Mississippi. It’s always tough to gauge a team’s readiness and motivation when a coach leaves. SMU went 10-0 against teams that ended the season unranked. Their only two losses were by a single score, on the road, to Memphis and Navy. Both teams can score with anyone though as well as having suspect defenses, so take the OVER.

Boise State Broncos +4 vs. Washington Huskies

In what should be an emotional game as it’s the last that Washington head coach Chris Peterson coaches for the Huskies against his former team, I think there will be a ton of points scored. Both teams are ranked in the Top 30 in Red Zone offense as well as Boise State being 10th in third-down conversions. Neither defense has played up to snuff. Boise is 7-2 ATS as a dog in bowls and won 5 of 6 against the Pac-12. The Pac-12 is 4-17-1 ATS in its last 22 bowls, including 4-12 straight up the past two years. I think the game is close and a coin flip, so Boise gives you more than a field goal of value.

BONUS DRAFT KINGS LINEUP: 182.42 points last week

QB: Ryan Tannehill

RB’s: Christian McCaffrey, DeAndre Washington

WR’s: D.J. Chark, Devante Parker, Darius Slayton, Greg Ward

TE: Jacob Hollister


DST: Raiders


That’s it for the 2019 Week 16 football bets in Tomlin’s Tips! Be sure to check out our staff rankings!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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