Fantasy Football

Tomlin’s Tips: 2019 Week 3 Football Bets


Week 2 of Tomlin’s Tips was a solid success! My best bets for college/pros went 7-2-1 with a couple of unlucky moments still. Let’s try to keep this rolling with the 2019 Week 3 Football Bets.

My one “push” in my best bets was that crazy ending of the Broncos/Bears game. I was about a 98% favorite to win the pick with less than a minute left, but it’s still better than a loss.

The teaser from last week covered easily as well as my survivor picks. The game total missed because I was not ready for Matt Ryan to develop a sudden penchant for throwing it to the other team when the Falcons are driving to score.

I also switched my pick on the Browns/Jets once Trevor Siemian was announced as the starter. Speaking of that, you will see a theme in my NFL picks this week. There is always an over-reaction to backup quarterbacks and you can see it in the lines.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The Week 3 Tomlin’s Tips will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them. Week 3 Tomlin’s Tips will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

So let’s get to the Week 3 Tomlin’s Tips. All of the information in the Week 3 Tomlin’s Tips is up to date as of September 19th.

NFL Week 3 Tomlin’s Tips

Best NFL Bets: 3-1-1 last week, 6-3-1 overall

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend.  This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets around a million bucks.
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Jets +23 at Patriots

Gulp. The case: Bill Belichick has been a 20-point favorite five times and is 0-5 ATS, averaging 13 points less than the number per game. The Patriots will be without two of their starting offensive linemen with a third gimpy. Last week’s 43-0 blowout of the Dolphins was pushed along by two pick-sixes in the fourth quarter while the Jets had to go to Luke Falk who had basically zero practice reps. The number is just too high.

Steelers +7 at 49ers

If you were Pittsburgh and your starting quarterback goes down for the season, why would you risk trading your top pick for the next draft? Would you not be concerned it could be a top-5 pick? What this shows me is that not only are they expecting that pick to be in the back half of the first round, but they do not think they need to take a new quarterback. The 49ers are being boosted by playing two crappy teams to start the season.

Texans +3.5 at Chargers

The Texans have not lost a regular season game by more than a field goal since Week 3 of last season. No matter how bad their offensive line is, DeShaun Watson keeps them in games. The Chargers are dealing with cluster injuries in their secondary as well as more kicking woes and it makes me like the Texans in a close game.

Browns +3 vs. Rams

The Rams have beaten the broken down and injured Cam Newton and Teddy Bridgewater coming in mid-game. They have yet to face a healthy quarterback with a week of practice as QB1. Neither one of those guys pushed the ball downfield, which Baker Mayfield is not afraid to do. I think it is a last-score-wins type of game, so I will take the field goal of value.

Falcons +1 at Colts

Turnovers in the NFL are all about regression. Atlanta has had six turnovers over the first two games and sits at a -3 differential. Matt Ryan has thrown five interceptions already after throwing just seven total in both 2018 and 2016. The Colts have just two turnovers and are even in differential with a backup quarterback playing. I think all of these regress to what is more expected and the Falcons run away with this one.

Other Games Picked: 4-6 last week, 10-10 overall

I’ll put my picks in for all other NFL games. Some people are in pools where the pick every game each week. Home teams are in CAPS.
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  • Broncos +8 over PACKERS
  • EAGLES -6 over Lions
  • Ravens +6.5 over CHIEFS
  • Bengals +6 over BILLS
  • Raiders +9 over VIKINGS
  • Dolphins +22 over COWBOYS
  • BUCCANEERS -6.5 over Giants
  • Saints +4 over SEAHAWKS
  • REDSKINS +4 over Bears

(I will Tweet out my pick for the Panthers/Cardinals game once Cam Newton’s status is clarified and the line is adjusted)

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Survivor Pool Plays: 1-0 last week, 2-0 overall

One of the most popular games now is survivor pools. You pick one winner, no spread, every week. You can never use the same team twice.
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Dallas Cowboys

This is probably the best week to use Dallas. You get to go against the worst team in the NFL and your team is at home. The next home game that I would really feel comfortable using Dallas would be Week 13 against Buffalo if not Week 17 against Washington. Your pool very likely will be over by then anyway, so take the Cowboys and survive.

Other Options: Patriots, Vikings

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 last week, 1-1 overall

My brother and I’s favorite bet: you take 10 points extra either off or on the spread. You combine three different teams with the 10 extra points and all have to hit to win.
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Texans +13, Falcons +11, Ravens/Chiefs OVER 41

The Texans have not lost a game by more than seven points since the 2017 season and Watson has never lost a game by double digits. While the Colts have looked strong the first couple of weeks, I just do not see an offense that can beat a solid team by a couple of touchdowns. Lastly, the Chiefs over will be a weekly staple of this bet going forward.

Game Total of the Week: 0-1 last week, 0-2 overall

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys, UNDER 47.5

I mean can you really trust Miami to score more than 10 points against anyone? Especially this week, as they draw a young Cowboys’ defense that is really coming together. This has 24-7 written all over it as the Cowboys just try to get in and out with an easy win.

College Best Bets: 4-1 last week, 6-5 overall

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Texas A&M Aggies -3 vs. Auburn Tigers

Auburn has a true freshman quarterback in his fourth start ever and first true road game. They are going into the ever-unfriendly confines of Kyle Field in College Station, TX. Auburn is having to seriously step up in class after the past couple of weeks against terrible teams. They are being over-rated as a team because of their win against Oregon, where they were down 21-6 late in the third quarter before the Ducks let up on the gas. A&M’s quarterback Kellen Mond is much better at home, totaling 30 touchdowns to just six interceptions over their last ten home games.

Northwestern Wildcats +9.5 vs. Michigan St. Spartans

I was fooled by the Spartans’ offense going into last week and it bit me in the butt. I’m not falling for it again. Michigan St.’s offense has not scored more than three touchdowns against a Power Five team since 2017. They have only scored more than twice just a couple of times in that span. The total for the game is just 38 points. In the last 30 years, teams laying more than a touchdown with a total of 43 or less cover just 42% of the time. Northwestern is also 13-4-1 with 10 wins in their last 18 games as an underdog, including 7-1-1 ATS and 6-2 SU last season.

Utah Utes -3 at USC Trojans

The last 13 times that USC has been an underdog they are 1-12 straight up and 2-11 against the spread. Clay Helton’s bunch just is not good as the dog. I’m starting to come around that Utah might be the best team in the Pac-12 and a win here could cement that status.

Georgia Bulldogs -14 vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Since 2000, Notre Dame has the fifth worst record in the country against Top-5 teams at 1-17 straight up. Georgia’s offensive line averages almost 60 pounds more than Notre Dame’s defensive line. I would believe that the Bulldogs wear down Notre Dame throughout the night and pull away for an easy cover in the fourth quarter.

Washington St. Cougars -18 vs. UCLA Bruins

Chip Kelly might have just lost it. The Bruins have not scored more than 14 points this season against three teams that are not exactly known for their defense. Washington St. on the other hand has no problem scoring. I just do not see UCLA keeping up.

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Pittsburgh Panthers +12 vs. UCF Golden Knights

I’ve been riding UCF for the early weeks of the season, but I think the tides have turned. This is just too many points for the Knights on the road against a solid Power Five team. Pitt showed that they can hang with the big boys coming within some bad coaching from pushing Penn State to overtime. I think the Pitt defense can slow down UCF enough to keep this within double-digits.

That’s it for the Week 3 Tomlin’s Tips! Be sure to check out our staff rankings!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog,, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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