Fantasy Football

Tomlin’s Tips: 2020 NFL/NCAA Football Week 9 Bets

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I grinded out another positive week last week but I’m thinking that the 2020 NFL/NCAA Football Week 9 Bets will be an even bigger winner.

I’m 0-4 on New England with my best bets and 11-9 on everyone else since Week 3. Am I over-rating Belichick? Are the trends catching up to the older coach? Or has COVID affected Cam Newton more than we are giving it credit?

So I heard someone kind of mention the COVID effects on athletes. It got me thinking about the overall parity of the NFL. About two-thirds of the teams finish between 6-10 and 10-6 most years. The worst team in the league can still beat the best team more than once out of ten times.

So what if having COVID-19 previously affects even 2-3% of your athletic and mental ability? When the difference between players is so negligible, that small decrease in performance can be massive.

Consider: if an entire data set is within a 10% range of outcomes, a 2-3% change to a single unit is really a 20-30% difference in outcome at minimum.

That’s just something to look at as move forward with the 2020 NFL/NCAA Football Week 0 Bets.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2020 NFL/NCAA Football Week 9 Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2020 NFL/NCAA Football Week 9 Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

So let’s get to the picks!

All of the information is up to date as of November 5th.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2020 NFL/NCAA Football Week 9 Bets

Best NFL Bets: 2-3 last week, 19-20 season

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
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Pittsburgh Steelers -14 at Dallas Cowboys

Either Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert will make their first career start this week against arguably the best defense in the league with arguably the worst offensive line in the league. The Cowboys also have a historically bad defense that will have loads of trouble stopping all of the offensive firepower that the Steelers throw out. The Cowboys have scored just a single offensive touchdown in the last 13 quarters of football and haven’t cleared 10 points in almost a month. Dallas is 0-8 against the spread which is also historic. Need I go on?

Carolina Panthers +10.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

It looks like Christian McCaffrey makes his return this week from his ankle/foot injury. Even though McCaffrey might be the Panther’s workhorse against the defending Champions, they remain double-digit underdogs according to Sports Betting Dime’s point spread (10.5).  Something that no one is talking about is how great Matt Rhule is as an underdog. Depending on your Week 1 number, the Panthers are 5-1 against the spread as a dog. Rhule was 13-4 against the spread as an underdog outside of his first year at Baylor. Kansas City has too much of an on/off switch, so I like Rhule getting this many points against them.

Houston Texans -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Since Week 2, Jacksonville has not come within seven points of anyone. They already lost to this Texans’ team by sixteen points a few weeks ago. Now, they are down their starting quarterback and starting a guy that I’ve never heard of. If it wasn’t for the weird win Week 1 against the Colts, we would be talking about the Jaguars in the same sentence as the Jets.
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Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens

I’ve been saying since last year that the blueprint to beat the Ravens was shown by Tennessee in the playoffs. Lamar Jackson does not have the passing chops at this point to dissect a defense that is not completely selling out to stop the run. The Colts have the best rush defense in the league and I think they can contain Lamar’s running, forcing him into passing mistakes.

New England Patriots -6.5 at New York Jets

At some point I have to be right about New England, right? Well, the underlying factor of New England’s apparent downfall besides the lasting effects of COVID on their quarterback is how hard their schedule has been. Denver is the worst team they have played at 3-4 and that was Cam’s first game back. Every other team is either in playoff position right now or went to the Super Bowl last season. That’s pretty daunting. Now they get a team that already has the Trevor Lawrence jersey ready for Draft Night. The two times that Sam Darnold has played New England that has lost by a combined score of 71-3.

 


Other NFL Games Picked: 6-4 last week, 40-38-1 season

I’ll put my picks in for all of the NFL games. Some people are in pools where they pick every game each week. Home teams are in CAPS.

Survivor Pool Plays 1-0 last week, 7-1 season

One of the most popular games now is survivor pools. You pick one winner, no spread, every week. You can never use the same team twice.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Easiest pick of the season.

Other Options:  Chiefs, Texans, Patriots

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 last week, 6-2 season

My brother and I’s favorite bet: you take 10 points extra either off the spread or over/under. You combine three different sides with the 10 extra points and all have to hit to win.

Bears +16, Steelers -4, and Steelers/Cowboys OVER 30

Chicago’s defense is too good and the Titans’ defense is too bad to make that a three-score game. I think Pittsburgh easily blows out Dallas, and will probably cover this teased total by themselves.

Game Total of the Week: 1-0 last week, 6-2 season

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Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, OVER 53

There have been at least 57 points scored in each of the last four Chargers’ games. There had been at least 53 points scored in each of the Raiders’ game until that windy, weird affair last week in Cleveland. Since Herbert took over in Los Angeles, the Chargers have played in a streak of shootouts and I think it continues Sunday.

College Best Bets: 3-2 last week, 22-16-1 season

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Air Force Falcons +6 at Army Black Knights

Betting the dog in a game between two service academies is always a good bet. In the last twelve matchups between service academies, the underdog is 11-1 Against The Spread and 7-5 Straight Up. There is more on the line in these games than any other games that Saturday. You can’t put a price on pride, and that little chip on your shoulder of being an underdog is usually the difference.

Coast Carolina Chanticleers -17 vs. South Alabama Jaguars

At some point I have to get on board with the Teal Mullets, right? South Alabama has three wins this season. The three teams they beat are a combined 2-19 (with one of those wins against each other). Coastal Carolina has beaten all of its opponents by more than two touchdowns except the solid Ragin’ Cajuns.

Texas Christian University Horned Frogs -9 vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Obligatory bet against Texas Tech inserted here. The Red Raiders have lost nine of their last ten road games both SU and ATS. In that streak they lost to Kansas. The only win was a fluky game against West Virginia, just like their only FBS win this season. If it wasn’t for that late fumble returned for a touchdown, Tech would be 1-5 with only a last-second win over FCS Houston Baptist. They might be the worst Power Five team in the country.
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Texas A&M Aggies -9.5 at South Carolina Gamecocks

I’ve been saying it for almost a month: the Aggies have one of the most likely paths to the College Football Playoff. They are currently ranked seventh in both polls, but there are likely three games left between four of the teams left ahead of them. However they will be a touchdown or more favorite every game the rest of the season, probably ending the year with 9-1 record, with just a loss to Alabama. I can also promise you that an undefeated Cincinnati is not getting in over a one-loss SEC team. Jimbo Fisher knows this too and he will go for any and all style points.



Notre Dame Fighting Irish +7 at Clemson Tigers

Clemson was definitely a little shaken without their star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. They were able to come back and beat Syracuse, but this Notre Dame team is no Syracuse. This is the biggest regular season game for the Fighting Irish since the Bush Push fifteen years ago. Notre Dame is also 5-0 against the spread and straight up as a home dog since 2014. In the last eleven matchups for top five teams, underdogs are 8-3 ATS.


That’s it for the 2020 Week 9 Football bets. Check out our Fantasy Football rankings!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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