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Tomlin’s Tips: 2021-22 Super Wild Card Football Bets

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With the College Football Playoff National Championship over, we can now focus on the professional playoff bracket with the 2021-22 Super Wild Card Football Bets.

I will add a quick note to wrap up the college football season. It ended up with my picks being above .500, and about even after juice. I will take that with how badly the bowls started because of COVID happenings.

Now we shift our entire focus to the senior circuit. With the full regular season wrapped up, there are certain statistics that I like to use to measure the difference between playoff teams. You will see me reference yards per play, points per play, 3rd-down conversion percentage, and red zone conversion percentage, as well as the opponents’ numbers in all of those.

The yards and points per play stats help show how good a team really is on a play-to-play basis without pace or score involved. The percentage stats are good for differentiating teams that are extremely close in talent. Can you get off the field (or stay on) on third down and can you convert (or stop) touchdowns in the red zone?

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2021-22 Super Wild Card Football Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2021-22 Super Wild Card Football Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2021-22 Super Wild Card Football Bets is up to date as of January 13th, 2022.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2021-22 Super Wild Card Football Bets

Best NFL Bets: 4-1 Last Week, 51-39 Season

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
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Las Vegas Raiders +6 at Cincinnati Bengals

This is an awful spot for Las Vegas with having to go from a late-night- overtime game on the west coast to the early Saturday game towards the east coast. However, there is one massive trend in Vegas’ favor: strength of schedule.

By Jeff Sagarin’s SOS ratings, in the Wild Card round, teams with a harder strength of scheduler are 48-22-2 ATS. If that difference is more than ten spots, as it is in this game, then the team with the tougher schedule is 28-6-2 ATS. I am not going against a trend that strong.

New England Patriots +4.5 at Buffalo Bills

Of all six matchups this weekend, this one is the most even to me. They both have really good defenses, and one team runs well while the other passes well. With the temperature around zero degrees on Saturday night, I would say the passing team, Buffalo will be affected more. Also, I will take points with Bill Belichick in the playoffs any chance I get.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

That leads us to the biggest mismatch of the weekend. The Eagles went 0-6 against playoff teams this season. Tampa went 4-1 against playoff teams. The Buccaneers were ranked second in points per play, red zone touchdown percentage and third-down conversion percentage. The Eagles were 19th, 29th, and 23rd, respectively, in those categories. Brady has a big day and the Bucs run away with this one.

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys’ defense has seemed like an elite unit because of turnovers, especially interceptions. There were four games in which Dallas did not have an interception. They lost three of them and needed a last-minute touchdown to win the other over a non-playoff team. Kyle Shanahan knows this.

The 49ers are 7-0 with no interceptions thrown and 3-7 when they throw an interception. Shanahan also knows that his team is the best in the league at yards per play. The Cowboys’ defense is susceptible to the run game (see the Broncos game) but has been hidden by big leads. San Francisco is also best in the league at converting touchdowns in the red zone, which I think they do to win outright.
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Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Since 2003, every single home favorite of at least ten points has covered the spread in the first round of the playoffs. A 100% trend is really hard to go against. If you need more, Kansas City has massive advantages at yards per play, both offensive and defensive points per play, and Pittsburgh was the luckiest team in the league this season, winning almost three games more than they should have.

Los Angeles Rams -4 vs. Arizona Cardinals

This is another close matchup, but these two teams are quite familiar. In fact, Sean McVay is 9-1 straight up against the Cardinals since taking over. The Rams are fourth in the league in offensive yards per play and fifth in the league in offensive points per play, while Arizona ranks 18th and 16th, respectively, in those categories. Arizona won just once in its last five games and it was a lucky win against Dallas. Stafford gets his first post-season win.

Other NFL Games Picked: 7-4 Last Week, 101-81 Season

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 0-1 Last Week, 11-7 Season

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49ers +13, Chiefs -2.5, and Buccaneers +2

I don’t see any path for a Cowboys’ blowout on Sunday and the other two are definitely winning outright.

Others I Like: Raiders +16, Patriots +14.5 Raiders/Bengals UNDER 59.5, and Patriots/Bills UNDER 55 (4-2 Last Week, 95-13 Season)

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Game total of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 14-4 Season

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots, UNDER 45

Bill Belichick knows that he is probably not winning a shootout with Josh Allen and the Bills. With the low temperatures too, I doubt there will be many big passing plays.

College Best Bets: 0-1 Last Week, 20-21 Bowls, 59-54 Regular Season, 79-75 Overall


That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips, 2021-22 Super Wild Card Football bets! Check out our NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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