Welcome back to Tomlin’s Tips with the 2021 Week 1 Football Bets! I hope to give you all the information you need to make the most money possible wagering on football each weekend.
Last season, we were quite profitable here at Tomlin’s Tips. My college best bets went 57-35-3 including bowl games, for an 18.5-unit profit.
In the NFL, my game total bets went 14-9 for a 4.1-unit profit. My teaser bets went 13-8 for a 4.2-unit profit. Although my NFL best bets were 44-46-1 for a 6.6-unit loss.
Overall, if that is a 20.2-unit profit. That means if you bet $100 on every one of my bets, you profited over two thousand dollars.
As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2021 Week 1 Football Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.
The 2021 Week 1 Football Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.
All of the information for the 2021 Week 1 Football Bets is up to date as of September 9th, 2021.
Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 1 Football Bets
Best NFL Bets: 44-46-1 Last Season
Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
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Washington Football Team PK vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The best front seven in the league gets a Chargers team that has the most turnover on their offensive line of anyone in the league. Justin Herbert was also one of the best under-pressure quarterbacks in the league last year. It was so extreme that regression is coming for the young signal-caller and it starts Week One.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 at Tennessee Titans
The Titans lost one of their organization’s most valuable commodities in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. He has been the one to utilize Derrick Henry to perfection. They also are getting over-valued for their shiny new toy, Julio Jones. Arizona on the other hand has gotten bigger and stronger on defense, fitting this game perfectly.
Minnesota Vikings -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
How many passes did Joe Burrow complete in the preseason? You know, the Joe Burrow that enters his second season coming off major knee reconstruction? Zero you say? Oh, and who are the coaches in this matchup? Zak Taylor, arguably the worst head coach in the league against the best coach in the history of football (against the spread) Mike Zimmer? Yeah, I’ll take that.
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Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 at Houston Texans
Honestly, fading the Texans is an auto-pick until one of two things happen: either the books catch on and inflate the line too much, or Houston shows that they aren’t tanking. Also, I think the Jaguars might have been playing possum in the preseason with their scheme.
New York Jets +4.5 at Carolina Panthers
Look, I am a believer that Sam Darnold can turn it around. The guy is barely older than some of the rookies this season. I just do not like the pressure of this spot against his former team, especially giving more than a field goal.
Other NFL Games Picked: 91-79-1 Last Season
(HOME teams in BOLD)
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BUCCANEERS -9.5 over Cowboys
(I’ll Tweet it out as well, would have been a best bet)
Steelers +7 over BILLS
Eagles +4 over FALCONS
COLTS +3.5 over Seahawks
LIONS +8 over 49ers
CHIEFS -5.5 over Browns
PATRIOTS -3 over Dolphins
GIANTS +3 over Broncos
Bears +8 over RAMS
Saints +4 over Packers
Ravens -4 over RAIDERS
NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 13-8 Last Season
Steelers +17, Washington +10, and Cardinals +13.5
I don’t think any one of these three games gets out of hand enough to be double-digit margins.
Others I Like: Buccaneers +0.5, Eagles +14, Patriots +7, Bears +18, Chiefs/Browns OVER 44, and Packers/Saints OVER 39.5
Game total of the Week: 13-9 Last Season
Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints, OVER 49
The Saints had to make some serious offseason changes to get under the cap and I think the defense takes the brunt of it. I also think their offense will be exponentially more explosive (while also having more turnovers which leads to more total points) with Jameis Winston at the helm.
College Best Bets: 41-29-2 Regular Season, 16-6-1 Bowls last season
Iowa Hawkeyes +6 at Iowa State Cyclones
Do you know that the last time that Iowa State beat Iowa by more than three points the current players were not even in pre-K yet? This is almost always a close game… unless the Hawkeye blow out the Cyclones. There is too much rivalry for the big brother to get nearly a touchdown.
Texas Longhorns -6.5 at Arkansas Razorbacks
Don’t let the final score last week fool you, the Razorbacks really struggled with Rice. Texas looks to have their offense figured out: give the ball to Bijan Robinson as much as possible. Arkansas’ defense will not be able to contain him.
Washington Huskies +7 at Michigan Wolverines
What is Jim Harbaugh best at? Losing games when he has the momentum on his side from beating bad teams or getting lucky. The game against Central Michigan was another misleading final as the Wolverines struggled mightily early on. Washington had their own issues, but they are too well-coached to lay two duds in a row. By the way, why would this line be only seven points after Washington lost outright to an FCS team and Michigan won by multiple touchdowns? #suckerlineoftheweek
California Golden Bears +10.5 at TCU Horned Frogs
Speaking of teams that like to beat up on the bad competition, I’m still not sold on the Horned Frogs. A team I am sold on is the Nevada Wolfpack who California had down two touchdowns early. There is a chance that Nevada finishes 12-0 or 11-1 and that game will look much better. I think the Golden Bears keep it close in Fort Worth.
Texas A&M Aggies -17 at Colorado Buffaloes
The Aggies have not lost to a non-Top-10 team since early November of 2018. So they are winning the game for sure, use them in your money line parlays. Now, will they cover? Well, Colorado has not played a ranked team since 2019, and the last two times they did, they lost by 30 and 42 points respectively. There is just a difference in opponent competition here that the Aggies know how to take advantage of.
That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips, 2021 Week 1 Football bets! Check out our Fantasy rankings!