Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 17 Football Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2021-22 NFL Super Bowl LVI Football Bets

Well, the second week of bowls took an upward turn and we start the Fantasy Football Championships in the 2021 Week 17 Football Bets.

Overall, the bowls are an absolute crapshoot though. There is much less regulation on COVID positives, so you have games like my best bet on Mississippi State where almost 20 guys were out five minutes before the game.

So take my picks on bowls with a grain of salt and keep up with the last-second updates on COVID issues.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2021 Week 17 Football Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2021 Week 17 Football Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2021 Week 17 Football Bets is up to date as of December 30th, 2021.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 17 Football Bets

Best NFL Bets: 3-2 Last Week, 43-37 Season

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
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Las Vegas Raiders +7 at Indianapolis Colts

This is dependent on if Carson Wentz plays or not. At this point, it looks like it is a no, and you can get them at this number now. Even if he plays, it is still not a terrible spot for Las Vegas.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 at New York Jets

I think this is the point that the Jets lay down for a better draft spot and Tom Brady turns it on to get on a roll for another playoff run.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Washington Football Team

I mean, have you watched Washington the past few weeks? They are horrendous right now. The Eagles beat bad teams (8-1 against sub-.500 teams, seven wins by at least 10 points).
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Minnesota Vikings +7 at Green Bay Packers

We have arguably the unluckiest team Minnesota (2.5 wins below average, 30% in coin flip games) against the luckiest team Green Bay (2.5 wins above average, 83% in coin flip games). Those types of things should even out over time, and I think that time is Sunday. How many games this season has Green Bay beaten a team with at least seven wins by more than a touchdown? That would be zero.

Cleveland Browns -2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I just think the Steelers are a bad team. There is the bump for Big Ben’s last home game, but he has been pretty bad all season. The Steelers are a Titans’ fumble, Ravens’ missed two-point conversion, a Lions’ missed field goal, and a Bears’ missed field goal from being on an eight-game losing streak. Going further, in every win that the Steelers have, their opponent either missed a game-winning field goal, turned it over in the Steelers’ territory when driving for the win, or the Steelers had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has zero non-coin flip wins.

Other NFL Games Picked: 6-5 Last Week, 88-73 Season

(HOME teams in CAPS)

  • Giants +6 over BEARS
  • BILLS -13.5 over Falcons
  • Cardinals +5.5 over COWBOYS
  • Panthers +7 over SAINTS
  • BENGALS +5 over Chiefs
  • PATRIOTS -15 over Jaguars
  • TITANS -3 over Dolphins (BB if Wentz plays)
  • CHARGERS -6 over Broncos
  • Texans +13 over 49ERS
  • Lions +8 over SEAHAWKS
  • Rams -2.5 over RAVENS

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 0-1 Last Week, 10-6 Season

Eagles +7, Vikings +17, and Giants/Bears UNDER 49

The Eagles are for sure winning this game. The Vikings have not lost by double-digits all season and the last game is just a rock fight.

Others I Like: Buccaneers -3, Patriots -5, Cardinals +15.5, Bills -3.5, Packers/Vikings UNDER 58, and Browns/Steelers UNDER 52 (4-2 Last Week, 86-10 Season)

Game total of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 12-4 Season

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, UNDER 48

This game will be in the single digits with windy conditions. I also need a bunch of Fantasy Points from Aaron Rodgers, so you know that he will tank.

College Best Bets: 10-4 Last Week, 14-16 Bowls, 59-54 Regular Season

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14 vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Rutgers has not played in three weeks, thought the season was over but is just filling in.

Washington State Cougars -7 vs. Central Michigan Chippewas

In another mixed-up bowl game, I will take the Power 5 to adjust better.

Arkansas Razorbacks +2 vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn St. has lost five of seven and has some big-time opt-outs. Arkansas has only lost to good teams and keeps it close against non-CFP teams.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2.5 vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

We have a dream crusher for the Cowboys, who were a 4th-down conversion from the Playoff. Notre Dame’s players love their new coach and have the sneaky continuity for a team that switched head coaches between the regular season and the bowls.

Kentucky Wildcats -2.5 vs. Iowa Hawkeyes, UNDER 47

Iowa loses its best playmaker in Tyler Goodson who opted out of the game. They just will not be able to score.

Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 vs. Utah Utes

This line has taken a nosedive as receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson (among a couple of other starters) opted out for the NFL Draft. I would like to argue that the guys behind the opt-outs are not that much worse. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the field even if the opt-outs played and C.J. Stroud is still behind center for the Buckeyes.

Mississippi Rebels -1 vs. Baylor Bears

I don’t have much on this game, just making a forced pick, but I do think that Mississippi is just better than a smoke-and-mirrors Baylor.

LSU Tigers +4 vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Quarterback Max Johnson entered the transfer portal leaving LSU without a rostered, scholarship quarterback. However, they have top-ranked recruit Garrett Nussmeier, who they might burn his redshirt. Nussmeier is the son of the Dallas Cowboys’ quarterbacks’ coach, and I can tell you from watching him in high school that his potential is limitless. If he plays, LSU wins.

College Football Playoff Semifinals

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Georgia Bulldogs -7 vs. Michigan Wolverines

This is the lowest point for Georgia all season as far as perception, and the highest point in over a decade for the Wolverines. That is a great time to buy low on a team. I have heard it said a few times and I completely agree: Georgia is just a better version of Michigan. They play similarly on both sides of the ball, except Georgia has better players at almost every position. This one should not be close.

Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Alabama has won its last five semifinal games by 17, 11, 18, 17, and 38. The teams they beat were Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Clemson, Washington, and Michigan State. Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson are just a couple of the quarterbacks they have blown out. Nick Saban just owns this round now with almost a month to prepare for a team. Cincinnati just is not on the same level as any of those teams. The Bearcats got unlucky that Alabama beat Georgia, putting Cincy in this matchup.

That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips, 2021 Week 17 Football bets! Check out our Fantasy rankings!

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