Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 3 Football Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2021 Week 12 Football Bets

Last week saw Tomlin’s Tips go profitable with every area of handicapping, so let’s keep the momentum going with the 2021 Week 3 football bets!

Every area of bets brought back a profit, and I am now dead even in my best bets, only negative any vig on them. This is quite promising to know that my process is still strong, now I just need to sift through the potential plays for the right winners.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2021 Week 3 Football Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2021 Week 3 Football Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2021 Week 3 Football Bets is up to date as of September 23rd, 2021.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 3 Football Bets

Best NFL Bets: 3-2 Last Week, 4-6 Season

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
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Kansas City Chiefs, -6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

First off, just do the home-field flip and how would you feel with basically a pick ‘em? I know, home field has been discounted to between 1.5 and 2.5 points, but I would still say Kansas City is on the upper echelon of that. There is also the trend that the Chiefs have not covered a regular-season game since November 1st, 2020. That’s a 10-game streak. I think it ends Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 at Los Angeles Rams

Since their bye week last season, the Buccaneers have not lost a game. The only team to come within a field goal was the misleading final against Dallas a couple of weeks ago. I like the Rams a lot this year, but this game might be too big for Stafford’s britches at this point. He has always had problems with the best teams, and I think Brady takes advantage.

San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers' win against the Lions looks a lot more impressive than how the actual game went. The Lions had two turnovers and got within the Packers’ 32 yard-line two other times before turning it over on downs. The 49ers dominated the same Lions team the week before but allowed the backdoor cover. I think the Green Bay team this week looks closer to the one from Week 1.
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Indianapolis Colts +6 at Tennessee Titans

It looks like Jacob Eason might play and I like betting on backup quarterbacks getting too many points. People are treating Tennessee like they are the same Titans from the past couple of years. Their defense is not good at all, giving up 34 points per game. The Cardinals blew them out and it took a crazy comeback to beat Seattle in overtime. I think his is a one-score game so I will take the near-touchdown in value.

Washington Football Team +8 at Buffalo Bills

So Buffalo gets soundly beaten by Pittsburgh, then shuts out a lowly Dolphins team with their quarterback getting hurt and now we are giving more than a touchdown with them? Washington has been in two hard-fought games and lost its starting quarterback but still put 30 points on the board last week. Most importantly, I think Washington can contain the regressing Josh Allen so the eight points are way too much.

Other NFL Games Picked: 6-5 Last Week, 10-12 Season

(HOME teams in BOLD)

  • TEXANS +8 over Panthers
  • Cardinals -7 over JAGUARS
  • Ravens -7 over LIONS
  • PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints
  • GIANTS -3 over Falcons
  • Bears +7 over BROWNS
  • STEELERS -3 over Bengals
  • RAIDERS -3.5 over Dolphins
  • Jets +10.5 over BRONCOS
  • Seahawks -2 over VIKINGS
  • Eagles +4 over COWBOYS

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 2-0 Season

Washington +18, Buccaneers +8.5, and Cardinals +3

Washington’s defense is too good to lose by that many, and I think the other two win outright.

Others I Like: Colts +16, Eagles +14, Seahawks +8, Patriots +7.5, Seahawks/Vikings OVER 44, and Packers/49ers OVER 39.5 (5-1 Last Week, 11-1 Season)

Game total of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 1-1 Season

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets, UNDER 43

Neither one of these teams is looking to score too much with slow, methodical offenses. There is also a chance that the Broncos’ defense shuts the Jets out completely.

College Best Bets: 4-3 Last Week, 6-6 Season

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Texas A&M Aggies -5 vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)

Humor me: what is the line of this game if the Arkansas/Texas game never happened? Is it two touchdowns? I know, you cannot completely discount a game that was played. But if Texas and Arkansas were to play again this Saturday, what is the line? Pick ‘em? Arkansas by a field goal, at best?

So we can all agree that that game was skewed toward Arkansas being significantly better than Texas when they are in fact closer to even. An unranked Texas. A&M’s defense is one of the best few in the country, giving up just 17 points in three total games. The Razorbacks gave up 17 points to Rice, alone. I don’t care who is at quarterback for the Aggies, they will be able to score and they will stop Arkansas.

Ohio Bobcats +15 at Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern is 1-2, and their single win was over Indiana State. They were beaten soundly by Michigan State and Duke. Ohio is 0-3, with a loss to FCS Duquesne. That was a false final though, as Ohio was a 2-point conversion away from winning. In reality, I just refused to give up more than two touchdowns with a team as bad as Northwestern.

Nebraska Cornhuskers +6 at Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State has been boosted in the rankings for a 3-0 start. Well, one of those wins was against the hapless Northwestern Wildcats, one was against an FCS team and the other was against the formerly ranked, 1-2 Miami Hurricanes. It is the old “you beat a ranked team so we rank you now instead of looking at said team should have been ranked in the first place.” Nebraska’s defense is really coming around, giving up just 10 points in their two wins then holding the explosive Oklahoma offense to just 23 points. Michigan State is also 1-12 Against The Spread as a home favorite in their last 13 games. I think this is a field goal game for sure, look towards the under as well.
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Texas Longhorns -7 vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders are a little bit of fool’s gold at 3-0. Defensive touchdowns opened the door in both of their FBS wins, games that were 50/50 until said scores. They escaped with a narrow victory over an FCS school. Texas is +78 in their two wins and looks to have figured out their quarterback room. As I have already mentioned, if that Arkansas/Texas game never happened, what would the line be here? Probably two touchdowns? Take the value.

Akron Zips +50 at Ohio State Buckeyes

This feels gross, but Chris “The Bear” Fallica had a good nugget. According to his research, FBS teams favored by 49 or more points over other FBS schools are 1-12 ATS since 1996, and 2-16 ATS since 1993. It is just too many points.

UTSA Road Runners +4 at Memphis Tigers

A lot of people I really trust think that this UTSA team is the real deal and might run the table. Well, they will have to cover getting more than a field goal to come close to going undefeated.

That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips, 2021 Week 3 Football bets! Check out our Fantasy rankings!

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