Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 5 Football Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2021 Week 12 Football Bets

It was still not a profitable week, so I am going to change things up for the 2021 Week 5 football bets.

I left some of my best college plays on the table by trying to only do 5-6 picks. Well, I am giving all of my solid options from here on out.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2021 Week 5 Football Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2021 Week 5 Football Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2021 Week 5 Football Bets is up to date as of October 7th, 2021.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 5 Football Bets

Best NFL Bets: 2-3 Last Week, 7-13 Season

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
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Miami Dolphins +10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Would you not say that the Dolphins and Patriots are about equal teams? I mean Miami beat New England in a coin flip game just a few weeks ago. I get that Tua got hurt and Jacoby Brisset is in, but they still lost a close game against the Raiders. The Bucs’ defensive backfield is a catastrophe right now, and the last thing I want to do is lay double digits with a bad secondary. Another factor is how Belichick slowed down Tampa. His closest protege is on the sidelines coaching the Dolphins. Toss in the hangover from the biggest regular-season game of the season, and I think Tampa just squeaks out a win.

Tennessee Titans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is simply a fade of the Jacksonville locker room and Urban Meyer. A.J. Brown is trending towards playing and should be in all of your DFS lineups with Derrick Henry.
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Green Bay Packers -3 at Cincinnati Bengals

There has been a trend that homefield is only counting for 1.5-2.5 points now depending on the field. Cincy is definitely on the lower end there, so if this game was at Green Bay it would only be the Packers by a touchdown? Against the team that Trevor Lawrence just dissected. With no Mixon in the game, Cincinnati will be one-dimensional with no answer for the Packers’ offense that is on fire right now.

New England Patriots -9 at Houston Texans

You have Bill Belichick against a rookie quarterback and an auto-fade of the Texans.

San Francisco 49ers +5.5 at Arizona Cardinals

Each week there are a couple of teams that looked amazing the week before then pedestrian the week after. The variance and parity in the league are too high that no team can look great every week. The 49ers are starting rookie Trey Lance, who will bring a massive rushing element against the worst rushing defense in the league per PFF.

Other NFL Games Picked: 6-5 Last Week, 18-26 Season

(HOME teams in BOLD)

  • Rams -2.5 over SEAHAWKS
  • Falcons -3 over Jets (London)
  • Eagles +4 over PANTHERS
  • FOOTBALL TEAM +2 over Saints
  • VIKINGS -8 over Lions
  • Broncos PK over STEELERS
  • RAIDERS -5.5 over Bears
  • CHARGERS -2 over Browns
  • Giants +7.5 over COWBOYS
  • Bills +3 over CHIEFS
  • RAVENS -7 over Colts

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 3-1 Season

Buccaneers PK, Bills +13, and Patriots/Texans UNDER 50.5

Tampa will still win and the Bills won’t get blown out as bad as Kansas City’s defense is.

Others I Like:  Titans +6, 49ers +15.5, Broncos +10, Football Team +12, Falcons/Jets UNDER 57, and Cowboys/Giants OVER 40 (6-0 Last Week, 21-3 Season)

Game total of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 3-1 Season

New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (London), UNDER 47

Calvin Ridley is not making the trip and Russell Gage is already hurt for the Falcons. The Jets have a bad rookie quarterback traveling overseas. This will be a low-scoring, ugly game.

College Best Bets: 2-4 Last Week, 11-13 Season

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Texas Longhorns +3.5 vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Dallas, TX)

I have to pick the Red River Shootout, right? Well, Texas is a very public team in every game except when they play Oklahoma. The perception is OU has just dominated the Longhorns for a decade. In reality, Texas has covered seven of the last nine meetings and won three outright, all as an underdog. Oklahoma is getting credit for a “really good” defense, yet they have given up more than 30 points to Kansas State and Tulane. Get your Bijan Robinson 40-1 Heisman tickets in now.

Charlotte 49ers -3 at Florida International Panthers

Charlotte is a decent team, beating an above-.500 Power 5 team in Duke and hanging with another on the road. FIU is terrible, with just a single win over a bad FCS school. They give up tons of points and have not been able to score on bad defenses. The 49ers run away with this one.

North Carolina Tar Heels -17 vs. Florida State Seminoles

So Florida State beats Syracuse and they are back on track, right? I doubt it. The Tar Heels’ offense has turned it on since their opening loss to the Hokies. They are averaging 45 points per game since that game. Florida State does not have the quarterback play to hang with them.

Syracuse Orange +7 vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This line just smells with Wake being undefeated and ranked only giving a score to the Orange that just lost to Florida State.

BYU Cougars -5 vs. Boise State Broncos

BYU was favored by this exact line AT Boise State last year. They won that game 51-17. They also look even better this year, beating three Pac-12 teams and two other good mid-majors. The Broncos are under .500. Give me the Cougs.

Nebraska Corn Huskers +4 vs. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan will be exposed at some point and I will be there on the other side winning money.
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Alabama Crimson Tide -17 at Texas A&M Aggies

What has the 2021 version of the Texas A&M football done to impress you? They have lost to Arkansas by double digits (which does not look as strong now), lost at home to a mediocre Mississippi State team, and struggled to beat a bad Colorado team. Bama is going to roll them. The Tide have won 100 straight games against unranked foes, including their last 19 against SEC teams by at least 15 points.

UTSA Road Runners +4 at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This game will be an absolute shootout, so I like getting more than a field goal. The Road Runners have a legit chance to jump into the mix for a big bowl game with a win here.

Iowa Hawkeyes -1.5 vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Both of these teams have looked impressive enough this year, winning comfortably each week against quality competition. Iowa is 14-1 in its last 15 games as a favorite of four points or less, while James Franklin is 0-9 straight up in road games against Top-10 teams. What I see though is a dream-maker game for Iowa. If the Hawkeyes pull this out, they will be a double-digit favorite in every game the rest of their regular season. They will have an inside track to the Big Ten Title Game and a solid chance at the College Football Playoff. They get it done.


That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips, 2021 Week 5 Football bets! Check out our Fantasy rankings!

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1 comment

NFL Football Betting - Week 5 - Sports Betting Rundown October 8, 2021 - 9:24 am

[…] names the best Week 5 NFL bets to help you win some cash on […]

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