Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 6 Football Bets


I changed up my way of selecting picks and it worked out to a positive week! Now let’s see if I can keep the momentum with the 2021 Week 6 football bets.

I added more college games to my picks as I was leaving meat on the bone earlier in the year. This led to an overall +1.3-unit week (so you won $130 if you bet $100 per pick) and I was a Texas collapse from being even better.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2021 Week 6 Football Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2021 Week 6 Football Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2021 Week 6 Football Bets is up to date as of October 14th, 2021.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 6 Football Bets

Best NFL Bets: 2-3 Last Week, 9-16 Season

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
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Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins (London)

If Damien Harris does not fumble going into the end zone Week 1 and Miami loses to New England, are the Dolphins not right there with Jacksonville for the worst team in the league? Miami simply cannot score. They have the second-fewest points in the league and only managed 17 points against Tampa with guys off the street in the secondary. It’s tough to lay more than a field goal with a team that cannot score more than 17 points.

Houston Texans +10 at Indianapolis Colts

Woof, these first two are gross, but sometimes you need to take the ugly side. Could Davis Mills actually be decent? The rookie went 21-29, for 312 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions against the fifth-best pass defense in the league. The Colts just gave up 442 yards passing to Lamar Jackson. It is really hard to cover a double-digit spread when you can’t defend the pass.

Green Bay Packers -4 at Chicago Bears

The Bears have played two teams likely to make the playoffs and have lost by twenty points both times. I think they are a fraud, especially without David Montgomery.
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Carolina Panthers +2 vs. Minnesota Vikings

This pick is dependent on Christian McCaffrey playing, which looks like he will. The Panthers really missed him last week when they needed to put the game away on the ground. Sam Darnold had to force a little more without his safety valve, which will be huge against the roller coaster that is Minnesota. They have three of the wildest finishes of the year, which lends itself to a 1- or 2-point game (which they have had both of already). I’ll take the value along with the chance CMC goes wild.

Buffalo Bills -5.5 at Tennessee Titans

I’m still bitter at Tennessee for losing the Jets. Nevertheless, the Bills are on an absolute tear winning each of the last four games by at least 18 points with an average margin of victory of nearly 30 points per game. They have a bye next week, so you won’t catch them looking ahead.

Other NFL Games Picked: 6-5 Last Week, 24-31 Season

(HOME teams in BOLD)

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 4-1 Season

Chiefs +3.5, Rams -0.5, and Steelers +5

The Chiefs are not going 2-4, Daniel Jones/Mike Glennon is not beating the Rams and Geno Smith is not beating the Steelers. Easy enough, right?

Others I Like: Patriots +13.5, Packers +6, Bills +4.5, Panthers +12, Chiefs/Football Team UNDER 66.5, and Browns/Cardinals UNDER 60.5 (6-0 Last Week, 27-3 Season)

Game total of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 4-1 Season

Washington Football Team vs. Kansas City Chiefs, UNDER 56.5

All anyone wants to talk about is the Chiefs’ defense. Do you know what the cure for a bad defense is? Playing the Washington Football Team. I think this game is slowed down compared to the past few weeks for Kansas City.

College Best Bets: 5-4 Last Week, 16-17 Season

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Army Black Knights +14 at Wisconsin Badgers, UNDER 40.5

In what should be a slow-moving slog-fest, I’m taking the points and the under. Army has covered 75% of the time against Power Five teams over the past five seasons, winning 25% of the time outright.

Michigan State Spartans -4 at Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana has had one of the toughest schedules in the country, going 1-3 against Power Five opponents. All three of those losses were to Top-7 teams. However, none of those losses was particularly close. Michigan State is right on the edge of a Top-10 team so I think they can win by a touchdown.

Boston College Eagles +3.5 vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack

Both teams are propped up by playing Clemson closely. The Wolfpack won while the Eagles lost a squeaker. However, N.C. State won at home, first while Boston College went to Clemson the week after. There is obviously a massive difference between playing at one of the toughest stadiums in the country, but to play them off a loss that well was even more impressive.

Nebraska Corn Huskers -3 at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Speaking of tough schedule stretches, the Corn Huskers have lost three of four, but those three teams are a combined 18-0. Nebraska lost those games by a combined 13 points. Two of those were on the road. Minnesota has played no one of note since Week 1. There is a massive difference in prior opponents, leading me toward the Nebraska side.

Arizona State Sun Devils -1 at Utah Utes

Arizona State has just one loss at a tough BYU team who still had their starting quarterback, at the altitude of Provo. Besides that, no one has been within 18 points of them. Utah lost to the same BYU team with the same quarterback in the same altitude with almost the same exact score. However, they also lost to another mediocre Group of Five team and have less impressive wins around it.
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TCU Horned Frogs +14 at Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners have not beaten an FBS team by more than a touchdown this season. That includes a five-point win over Tulane and a three-point win over 2-4 West Virginia. TCU is just a couple of plays from being 5-0 against some decent competition. The Horned Frogs have really figured out their offense, scoring at least 27 in every game this season and averaging almost 40 points a game. The Sooners have given up almost 100 points just the last two weeks and just benched a possible first-round NFL draft pick at quarterback.

Florida Gators -10 at LSU Tigers

If the home team was named “Mississippi State Bulldogs” with everything else equal, this line would be closer to three touchdowns.

Kansas State Wildcats +7 vs. Iowa State Cyclones

The Wildcats just only lost to Oklahoma by six at home, so now we think Iowa State is better than the Sooners? Iowa State has two blowouts over two of the worst teams in FBS, a close win over a decent FCS team, a double-digit loss to a good team, and a close loss to Baylor. They are still propped up by preseason hype, while Kansas State always plays them well, winning 11 of 12 before last season, with the only loss by four points.

Nevada Wolfpack -14 vs. Hawaii Warriors

How good does that Nevada win at Boise State look now? With just the single loss against an (as I just laid out) under-rated Kansas State team, Nevada is one of the best Group of Five teams. Hawaii is one of the most up-and-down teams in the country, losing at home to San Jose State then beating the ranked Fresno State Bulldogs just a couple of weeks later. On the road, I think the Wolf Pack takes care of business.

That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips, 2021 Week 6 Football bets! Check out our Fantasy rankings!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog,, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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