Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 7 Football Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2021 Week 12 Football Bets

Picking and handicapping games on Thursdays is quite difficult. So with the 2021 Week 7 football bets, keep in mind that a lot can change between Thursday and Sunday.

Carolina was one of my favorite plays when it looked like Christian McCaffrey was going to play. When he was put on IR the next day, I dropped it as a best bet and replaced it with the Chiefs.

So make sure to follow me on Twitter (@Tomlin3) to see any changes. Overall it was a profitable week, with a +2.3-unit win.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2021 Week 7 Football Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2021 Week 7 Football Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2021 Week 7 Football Bets is up to date as of October 21st, 2021.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2021 Week 7 Football Bets

Best NFL Bets: 3-2 Last Week, 12-18 Season

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.
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Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Eagles have played the three best offenses in the league (Dallas, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay) but have the lowest explosive plays against them in the league. They do allow a ton of rushing yards, but that’s by design: limit the big plays, make teams drive on you. The Raiders have one of the worst running games in the league. I think Vegas was able to rally last week in the face of turmoil but hit a flat spot this week.

New England Patriots -6.5 vs. New York Jets

What are the chances that the Patriots start 0-5 at home? Pretty much zero. We also just saw this same matchup a few weeks ago in New York and the Patriots won by 20. The Patriots were a 6-point favorite then, so why would the line be effectively the same in New England? They still have one of the best defenses in the league and will be able to shut down the Jets. Also, you should always take Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks.
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New York Giants +3 vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are 0-3 straight up and against the spread since Christian McCaffrey went down. Sam Darnold looked like a Pro Bowler with him in and has turned into Jets’ Darnold since he went down. As bad as the Giants have looked, I don’t think the Panthers should be road favorites against anyone.

Houston Texans +18.5 at Arizona Cardinals

This slate is ugly, this line is ugly, the Texans are ugly. I just can’t let an 18.5-point spread slide by in the parity-driven NFL. The Cardinals have the Packers next week and are a little beat up, so I don’t think they run this one up.

Cincinnati Bengals +7 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is an every-other-week team. They lost to the Raiders outright, then beat the Chiefs. They need a 66-yard field goal to beat the terrible Lions and follow it with a blowout of Denver. The next week they needed a miracle comeback against Indy, then blew the Chargers out the last week. Well, this is the riding high point that they have been hitting dead spots. The Bengals are a couple of kicks from being 6-0. They will also treat this game like the game of the season to get over the Baltimore hump while the Ravens see it as a walkover.

Other NFL Games Picked: 1-8 Last Week, 25-39 Season

(HOME teams in CAPS)

  • Broncos +2 over BROWNS
  • Football Team +8 over PACKERS
  • TITANS +6 over Chiefs
  • DOLPHINS +2 over Falcons
  • Lions +15 over RAMS
  • BUCCANEERS -12.5 over Bears
  • Colts +4.5 over 49ERS
  • SEAHAWKS +4.5 over Saints

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 5-1 Season

Buccaneers -2.5, Patriots +3.5, and Panthers/Giants UNDER 54

The first two teams are winning outright, no question. The other is my favorite total of the week…

Others I Like: Broncos +12, Football Team +18, Eagles +13.5, Titans +16, Titans/Chiefs OVER 44, and Patriots/Jets UNDER 54 (6-0 Last Week, 33-3 Season)

Game total of the Week: 1-0 Last Week, 5-1 Season

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants, UNDER 44

Christian McCaffrey is out and Saquon Barkley is questionable. Both teams have not been bastions of scoring this season. Both teams will probably play not to lose, leading to a close, low-scoring game.

College Best Bets: 5-5 Last Week, 21-22 Season

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SMU Mustangs -14 vs. Tulane Green Wave (Thursday Night)

Since this won’t post until Friday, I’ll Tweet this pick out. Everyone is so worried about whether Cincinnati will get in the College Football Playoff, but SMU is lurking. The Mustangs have scored at least 31 points in every game this season and will have a string of blowouts leading up to the showdown with the Bearcats.

Clemson Tigers +4 at Pittsburgh Panthers, UNDER 49

So we are at the point that a Pittsburgh team that lost outright to Western Michigan is giving points to Clemson. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS this year but their defense is arguably the second-best in the country. I mean the only reason they lost to Georgia was a pick-six. They pull the win out here in a game you should bet the under.

Army Black Knights +3.5 vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The Black Knights are now 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Power 5 competition. I’m going to ride them again this week against an over-rated Wake Forest.

UTSA Road Runners -6.5 at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

UTSA is flat-out scoring points. Louisiana Tech’s Austin Kendall has not looked right and is playing through injury. The Road Runners are ranked and looking to get style points any way they can to help their bowl bid.

 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -14 at FIU Panthers

The Hilltoppers might be the best 2-4 team in the country. They lost close games to quality teams in UTSA, Army, and Indiana, as well as hanging with Top-10 Michigan State. If they play teams of their level or lower, they blow them out because they are another team that can score some points (At least 31 points in every game this season). The Panthers have given up an average of 47 points per game over the past month. Western Kentucky may hit the over by themselves.
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Air Force Falcons -3 vs. San Diego State Aztecs

The last 24 times that an unranked team is favored over a ranked team, the unranked team is 16-8 ATS. San Diego St. is a leaky 6-0. They have played three of the worst teams in the country, the worst Power 5 team in the country, and an FCS team. The linemakers know this, the squares don’t and that’s why they will be on the Aztecs, so go the other way.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7 vs. USC Trojans

The only reason this line is not double digits is that it’s “Notre Dame vs. USC.” If this was “Purdue vs. UCLA” with the same resumes, then it would be 14 points or more. This is not your typical USC team though. Take the Irish and the value.

Fresno State Bulldogs -3 vs. Nevada Wolfpack

Fresno State has two losses, one on the tough Hawaii trip and another single-score loss to Top-10 Oregon. Nevada’s loss was a blowout to Kansas State, who we see now is a middle-of-the-road team. I think the Bulldogs show emphatically they are the better side here.

Hawaii Warriors -17 vs. New Mexico State Aggies

Speaking of that tough trip to Hawaii, you get arguably the worst FBS team in the country making that tough trip. These teams actually played in Las Cruces a few weeks ago. Hawaii won easily by 20 points. So now we are supposed to give less with the Warriors at home?

That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips, 2021 Week 7 Football bets! Check out our Fantasy rankings!

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