Tomlin’s Tips: 2022 NFL Season-Long Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2023 NFL Week 18 Football Bets

Welcome back for another season of Tomlin’s Tips! We start off with some 2022 NFL Season-Long Bets as well as some Week 1 college action!

What I try to bring you every week is some solid trends and analysis to give you the best NFL and NCAA football bets.

I’ve had three straight profitable seasons in both the college and pro, so hopefully, I can keep the streak alive!

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2022 NFL Season-Long Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2022 NFL Season-Long Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2022 NFL Season-Long Bets is up to date as of September 1st, 2022.

Tomlin's Tips: 2022 NFL Season-Long Bets

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Philadelphia Eagles
OVER 9 Wins -145
NFC East Division Winner +145
NFC #1 Seed +1600

Dallas Cowboys
UNDER 10.5 Wins -150
NO to make Playoffs +215

These two sets of bets work in tandem. First, the obvious: Dallas is a markedly worse team than last season. They were already down three starting offensive linemen, then their Hall of Fame left tackle Tyron Smith tore his hamstring and broke his kneecap. They lost Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup is still working back from an injury. Their defense was extremely lucky with turnovers but also lost Randy Gregory.

The Eagles are markedly better. They added A.J. Brown at receiver. They added two of the best defensive players in the draft,  Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean.

No team has won the NFC East back-to-back seasons since 2004. Washington and the Giants are awful. So, if the Eagles can get past the Cowboys, they have a path to the top overall seed at really good odds.

Chicago Bears UNDER 6.5 Wins -125

This team is devoid of offensive talent around Justin Fields. Their defense is not good either. The NFC North is surprisingly tough as I do think the Lions will be much better. Speaking of…

Detroit Lions OVER 6.5 Wins -130

I may be buying too much into the Hard Knocks Hype, but sign me up for some Dan Campbell. The Lions are the opposite of the Bears with a wide array of skill position players to attack with. Their defense was better as the season went and added a couple of solid pieces in the draft. They will compete each week for sure.

New England Patriots OVER 8.5 Wins -110

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Bill Belichick to just be above .500? Yes, please.

Denver Broncos UNDER 10.5 Wins +105

They are in the toughest division in the history of the NFL when it comes to starting quarterbacks and there is a chance they have the worst one of the bunch. The Broncos do not have the best positional group at any spot in the division. Those are two coupled problems. They won’t be terrible, but I just do not see a path to 11 or more wins.

Brandin Cooks OVER 940.5 receiving yards -120

Only two wide receivers in the league have had at least 1,000 yards in six of the last seven seasons. Cooks is still the top target on a team that will have to throw a lot.

Cooper Kupp UNDER 12.5 Touchdowns -105

Last year was ridiculous when it came to his touchdown percentage, Allen Robinson should eat into that some.

D.J. Moore OVER 86.5 Receptions -120

He had 93 catches last year with Sam Darnold.

Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 1,025.5 Yards -120

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Matt Ryan will be able to get the ball downfield more than Carson Wentz was able to last year.

Austin Ekeler UNDER 1500.5 Rush/Receiving Yards -125

With Sony Michel added to Isaiah Spiller, the rushing yards just will not be there.

Breece Hall UNDER 850.5 Rushing Yards -125

He is not even the starter.

Derrick Henry UNDER 1395.5 Rushing Yards -115

This is just ridiculously high. Any time missed and he is not getting it.

Aaron Rodgers OVER 4000.5 Passing Yards -110

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If he’s healthy, he will clear it easily.

Derek Carr OVER 27.5 Passing Touchdowns -145 and OVER 4425.5 Passing Yards -130

Derek? Do you remember your old college buddy Davante?

Matthew Stafford, UNDER 35 Touchdown Passes +100

Touchdown regression is coming for him as well.

Justin Herbert, Most Passing Yards +500 and MVP +900

I think he ascends this year.

Long Shot Super Bowl Matchup
LA Chargers vs. Philadelphia Eagles +10000

If you play this season out 100 times then this matchup happens at least a few times, making the odds decent.

My Pick for Super Bowl Matchup
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens +5500
Bucs to Win +900

Tom Brady does it again.

Week 1 College Football Bets

For more College Football bets check out OG Analytics Week 1 Picks!

Friday Night

Illinois Fighting Illini +3 at Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana surprised everyone during the COVID 2020 season, going undefeated Against The Spread (ATS). Last season, they had just a single win over an FBS squad. They also went 1-11 ATS last year. I do not think the Hoosiers should be giving points to any FBS team, let alone a Power 5 squad.

Saturday

Notre Dame Fighting Irish +17.5 at Ohio State Buckeyes

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It is pretty rare to have a Top-5 matchup with a spread this big, especially without Alabama involved. Ohio State has to reload at wide receiver, although the talent is there with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. C.J. Stroud and TreVeyon Henderson give Ohio St. arguably the best quarterback/running back duo in the country.

With all that said, it is just too many points. New Irish coach Marcus Freeman has been harping on this underdog role since the summer. He will have Notre Dame prepared and ready to at least keep it close.

USC Trojans -31 vs. Rice Owls

There will be tons of pressure on Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams to run this one up on the lowly Owls. The gas will not be lifted until this is a no-doubt cover and there’s a 50-burger on the board.

Alabama Crimson Tide -42 vs. Utah State Aggies

This will probably be an auto-Bama bet each week until otherwise. I mean they are going to have a winning ATS record and I do not want to miss any of it.  The Tide have covered four straight vs. non-conference foes with at least a 35-point spread.

Mississippi State Bulldogs -16 vs. Memphis Tigers

The Bulldogs were a sneaky-good team last season that was marred by a COVID-induced blowout loss in their bowl game. They lost by a total of 18 points in their four other non-Alabama losses, including by two to these Tigers. This was one of the most misleading finals of the year, as the Tigers had a 49-yard fumble return and a 94-yard punt return both go for touchdowns. Mississippi State out-gained the Tigers 468 yards to 246 yards. They had 14 more first downs and doubled them in time of possession. Memphis gets pounded this year.

Arkansas Razorbacks -6 vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Arkansas matched another stellar recruiting class with one of the best transfer wide receivers in the country, Jadon Haselwood from Oklahoma. KJ Jefferson is back behind center and that is where the Hogs have the massive advantage. The Bearcats lost Desmond Ridder and replace him with his former backup after a year at Eastern Michigan, Ben Bryant. Bryant was solid last year with 3,121 yards but he is a statue that will be under duress all night.

LSU Tigers -3 vs. Florida State Seminoles (New Orleans Superdome)

Brian Kelly has won 40 straight games in which his team was the favorite. I still think there is just an overall talent discrepancy and LSU pulls this one out.


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