Tomlin’s Tips: 2022 NFL Week 1 Football Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2023 NFL Week 18 Football Bets

It’s Christmas morning for the sports betting community! We finally have a full weekend of football and Tomlin’s Tips is here with the best 2022 NFL Week 1 football bets!

Last week I gave out my favorite preseason NFL season-long bets as well as started the college season. Boy did it start hot too with a 5-1-1 start, the only loss being LSU with their blocked extra point.

As some of you will notice, only F6P members will be able to see all of my picks this season. While you may not be happy about that, consider the profit that you can make by becoming an All-Access Member!

Last season, my NFL Best Bets were 58-44, or +9.6 units. That means if you only bet $10 on every bet, then you were up $96 for the season.

My NFL Teasers were 15-7 and game totals were 16-6, combining for a +6.7-unit profit. My college best bets were down a bit, but still above .500 with a 79-75 mark.

If you are going to bet then I am giving information that is worth reading.

As always, a simple disclaimer: Sports betting should be entertainment. 2022 NFL Week 1 football bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2022 NFL Week 1 football bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2022 NFL Week 1 football bets is up to date as of September 8th.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2022 NFL Week 1 Football Bets

Best NFL Bets

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.

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The Tomlin Lock of the Week

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Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

The trend I like this most in Week 1: intra-division underdogs are 29-9-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in Week 1 over the last eight years. This best bet fits that bill perfectly. There is also another trend that is going for the Steelers here. The previous Super Bowl loser is 4-18 ATS in the next season’s opener.

On top of all that, Mike Tomlin (great name) is 45-23 ATS as an underdog. (Thanks to Pregame for some of these trends!) So, add all of that up and you have a division opponent getting an inflated line because of the end of last season with a superior head coach in underdog situations.

X’s and O’s wise, I think the quarterback disparity is not as big as given by the line. Mitch Trubisky is a laughingstock for going over Pat Mahomes in the NFL Draft. In reality, his overall numbers are not horrific. He operates with a mostly 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a quarterback rating around 90. I know, neither is All-Pro, but look at his situation. He will have the best running back and best overall receiving group he has ever had. He will also play with the best coaching staff he has ever had, by far.

Joe Burrow is living off the Joe Cool nickname after his post-season run. However, how many 300-yard passing games did Burrow have in the first eleven weeks last season? That number is just two. In 2021, 21% of Burrow’s yards and 23% of his touchdowns came in the last two games of the season.

Before those last two games, he was a 260-yard-a-game passer with less than two touchdowns and an interception per game. Sounds an awfully lot like Trubisky. Take the points and the Steelers.


That’s it for the 2022 NFL Week 1 football bets! Be sure to check out our weekly Fantasy Football rankings as well!

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