Tomlin’s Tips: 2023 NFL Week 1 Football Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2023 NFL Week 18 Football Bets

Pro football is back, baby! We have the 2023 NFL Week 1 football bets ready for your consumption, free of charge! I mean, how many football betting tippers give you picks that were over thirty units profitable for free?

So, I want to promise you one thing: we start the 2023 NFL Week 1 football bets profitable or your money back!

Seriously though, there is a massive trend I am getting behind. Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 15-2 Against The Spread (ATS) since 2012, 21-4 ATS since 2009. That is a meaty trend.

It makes sense, too. The familiarity of the opponent overcomes a noticeable talent gap earlier in the season.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2023 NFL Week 1 football bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2023 NFL Week 1 football bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2023 NFL Week 1 Football bets is up to date as of September 7th, 2023.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2023 NFL Week 1 Football Bets

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Best NFL Bets

Each week I will play my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping content in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.

The Tomlin Lock of the Week

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Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Pittsburgh Steelers as an underdog are one of the best long-term bets in sports. Pittsburgh is 53-30-4 ATS as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. As a home underdog, Tomlin is 16-4-3 ATS.

Furthermore, with T.J. Watt in the lineup last season, the Steelers were 8-2 both ATS and Straight Up (SU). Everyone was too busy bowing down to Brock Purdy that they did not see Kenny Pickett and the Steelers crush the end of the season in 2022.

Pittsburgh finished the year covering seven straight games. They were 6-1 straight up in that stretch and I think they start the year hot.

Other Best NFL Bets

Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Carolina Panthers

Ten times since 2002 has the top overall pick in the draft been a quarterback and he was the starter in Week 1. Not once since 2002 has that player won his first start. Bryce Young was the top pick this year and is starting Week 1. The team around him is a disaster. Who is his best receiver? The corpse of Adam Thielen? The offensive line is a mess and Bijan Robinson will have a field day running all over Carolina.

Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

This is the first game with the trend of the week in play. We have a home underdog getting a full field goal.

Besides just playing the trend blindly, I do like the Browns in this spot. I feel like this is a free roll on Deshaun Watson. If Watson is the sub-par quarterback we saw last year, this line is about right. If he is anywhere closer to the guy from Houston, this is a touchdown off.

Indianapolis Colts +6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Do not get me wrong, taking a rookie quarterback in Week 1 is not my cup of tea. However, this does go with that home divisional dog trend so I do not want to miss out on it. I think the Jaguars were a bit of fool’s gold last year. They had a few ridiculous comeback wins, including in the playoffs against the Chargers.

The bottom line is I am not giving a touchdown on the road with Jacksonville against anyone.
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New York Giants +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

I think the Giants’ pass rush will get to Dak all night. I cannot emphasize enough how much of a downgrade in pass blocking Tony Pollard and company are compared to Zeke. If you rush Dak, he farts and falls down. Lastly, this is the another game with a divisional home underdog.

Best Bets for the Rest

Home teams in CAPS

  • Lions +4.5 over CHIEFS
  • RAVENS -10 over Texans
  • Buccaneers +6 over VIKINGS
  • SAINTS -3 over Titans
  • COMMANDERS -7 over Cardinals
  • Packers +1 over BEARS
  • BRONCOS -3 over Raiders
  • Dolphins +4 over CHARGERS
  • Eagles -3 over PATRIOTS
  • SEAHAWKS -5 over Rams
  • JETS +3 over Bills

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week

Ravens PK, Commanders +3.5, and Giants +14

I really want to fade the Texans and Cardinals early in the season. They should be the two worst teams in the league unless the Rams purposefully tank as well. The Giants are not getting blown out by two touchdowns against the Cowboys at home.

Game Total of the Week

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins, OVER 50

If Tua can keep from getting knocked out of the game, this game should blow past this number. I know this number is high, but plug your nose and be ready for the fireworks.

College Best Bets (4-2 last week, +1.8 units, 52-37-1 in 2022, +11.3 units)

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Colorado Buffaloes -3 vs. Nebraska Corn Huskers

I was completely ready to fade the Buffs this week. That win over TCU was a massive false final. TCU had seven possession that entered Colorado territory without any points.

However, I heard A.J. Hoffman make a great point at He basically said that this is the most important game of Colorado’s season. They lose this, last week means nothing. I think they can ride that adrenaline rush for one more week. If they pull it off, I can promise you they will be fade next week.

Utah Utes -7 at Baylor Bears

I mean, did you see that game against Texas State? Baylor has zero home-field advantage. They also do not have enough talent, especially at backup quarterback which they have to turn to again this week.

Oklahoma Sooners -15.5 vs. SMU Mustangs, OVER 67.5

Like I said last week, the Sooners will run up leads all season. Their backup quarterback would start for all but two teams in the country, and I am including OU on that list. Jackson Arnold is the real deal so I am not afraid to lay big numbers both on the spread and total as Arnold vies for QB1.

Oregon Ducks -6.5 at Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is why we can’t have nice things. Everything was setup for a massive matchup in the desert. Instead, Tech stops playing after the first quarter, losing straight up at Wyoming.

That was the ever-so-rare dream crusher in Week 1. I will be in the house, but I have a bad feeling that the Red Raiders will come out flat, which is not a good thing against a team that scored 81 points last week.

Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5 vs. Texas Longhorns

Both teams were caught looking ahead just a bit, failing to cover last week. That can be a source of motivation for the right head coach to pounce upon. Nick Saban is that right kind of coach. Steve Sarkisian is not.

That’s it for Tomlin’s Tips: 2023 NFL Week 1 Football Bets. Check out our award-winning Fantasy Football rankings!

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