Fantasy Football

Tomlin’s Tips: Super Bowl LIV Football Bets


After a strong conference championship weekend, my picks sit just a game below .500. Let’s make a few good bets here in the Super Bowl LIV Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips and make it a profitable season!

My college picks closed with a tidy profit and my overall NFL picks were on the winning side as well. My game total picks reached .500 so now we just need to get the best bets to come around.

The two conference championship games went almost exactly like I laid out last week. The 49ers were able to shut down the Packers’ receivers, get a big lead, and sustain long drives for an easy victory. The Titans were able to get out to a lead in a high-scoring game and were a bogus pass interference from driving for a backdoor cover.

The biggest take away from the two games: we head into the Super Bowl LIV Football bets with the best two teams still playing. That definitely does not always happen, re: Eli Manning’s Hall of Fame case. Everyone was blinded by the new shiny toy in the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, but when Patrick Mahomes is healthy the Chiefs are still the best team in the AFC. I mean, they are four inches of Dee Ford’s helmet from playing in back-to-back Super Bowls.

Nevertheless, we have a solid game to look forward to! I will give you my pick as well as enough props to make every moment of the game exciting! Speaking of props, my strategy for props is you need to find the narrative and game script that you think is going to happen first. Once you know how you think the game will end and flow, then you can decipher which props fit the script.

So if you think the Chiefs blow the 49ers out, then you go over on Mahomes props and probably under on all of the 49ers’ backs’ props. If you think it’s a tight, low-scoring game, then you take under on all of the TD and yardage props.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The Super Bowl LIV Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them. The Super Bowl LIV Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit. With that said, here’s a list of the best sites that you can get your bets in with that are safe.

So let’s get to the Super Bowl LIV Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips. All of the information in the Super Bowl LIV Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips is up to date as of January 27th.

Super Bowl LIV Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips

Best Bets: 3-1 Last week, 44-50-1 Overall

San Francisco 49ers +1.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

These are easily the top two teams in the NFL per Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. They did not get here by accident either, as both played above-average schedules in difficulty and the 49ers were 7-2 against other Top-10 teams while the Chiefs were 4-2 in such games. No other team in the league was better than these two in that category.

As for the actual matchup, Kansas City comes in with an eight-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread (depending on your closing number with the Chargers). They have covered those eight games by nearly ten points per game. That’s over the SPREAD, not just the game.

The 49ers have won their playoff games rather easily, with 17-point margins of victory in both. They are covering the spread by nearly a touchdown a game themselves over the past month. San Francisco is also 5-0 against the spread, 4-1 straight up as an underdog this season, covering the spread by more than 12 points per game in such situations.

In-Game Matchups

Embed from Getty Images
Obviously both teams are great and there are no end-all, be-all trends. This will come down to individual matchups, and that’s where I see several distinct advantages for San Francisco.

The most glaring advantage is defensively. San Francisco is the second-best unit per Pro Football Focus as well as DVOA. Kansas City is 24th and 14th respectively. Both offenses are Top-Six units, with San Francisco surprisingly a couple of slots higher.

When San Francisco has the ball, the 49ers are best in the league at getting open as receivers and the Chiefs are 18th in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. San Francisco is fifth-best in running the ball and run blocking, while Kansas City is 29th at stopping the run. All of this helps lead to a massive time of possession advantage for San Francisco (4th to Kansas City’s 21st ranking).

I think this game ends up similarly to the last two San Francisco playoff games. They will get out to a solid lead as the 49ers are third-best in the league in first quarter-scoring while the Chiefs are 28th in allowing points in the opening stanza. San Francisco will then use their stable of running backs (I’m working on the knowledge that Tevin Coleman plays, I dislocated my shoulder several times and it’s usually a two-week recovery) to keep Pat off of the field, and George Kittle makes the plays in the passing game when he has to.

The difference is that this week, San Francisco is too good on defense for Mahomes to work his magic in a comeback. I think they fall just short, and the 49ers win 33-29. If you like the 49ers, don’t be afraid to sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well, since it’s basically the same bet but you are getting plus-odds.

Game Total of the Week: 1-0 last week, 10-10 overall

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs, OVER 54.5

These are two of the three highest-scoring teams in the league; right around 30 points per game each. I don’t think the Chiefs can stop the 49ers from reaching their thirty-mark, and the Chiefs have scored less than 23 just once all season.

I also like the over for the 1Q, 2Q and 1H. The first quarter is currently 10 right now, and the second quarter is not out, but it should be around 16. The First half over/under is currently 26.5. I already showed that San Francisco will be able to get out to a lead in the first quarter, but both teams are top-five in the league in second quarter and overall first-half scoring as well.

The Fantasy Six Pack staff mostly agree with the over as well. Check that out and more in the 2020 Staff Predictions.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 Last week, 13-8 Overall

My brother and I’s favorite bet: you take 10 points extra either off or on the spread. You combine three different teams with the 10 extra points and all have to hit to win.

Chiefs +8.5, 49ers +11.5, OVER 44.5

Some places won’t let you tease both ways, but online you usually can. I think this is actually a strong bet with a close game almost guaranteed.

Super Bowl LIV PROPS

Embed from Getty Images

Demi Lovato National Anthem, UNDER 124.5 seconds

Let’s get it started with the first bet you can get paid on! Here’s Demi at the 2015 World Series (1:58), the World Series in 2011 (1:49) and the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight in 2018 (2:10). She has the poise and restraint to pause a lot in the song, however, she does not really hold notes out. That’s not her singing style in general, especially live, without autotune. The Mayweather/McGregor anthem is the longest I think she could ever go, and that still barely cleared the over.

Moreover, I think that the fact that the boxing match was inside in an arena with better acoustics pushed that total length. This number is also 17.5 seconds higher than last year’s over/under, and almost half a minute more than just a few years back. In a stadium with nearly 100,000 people, outside, I think she shortens it. ****Note: last year, the afternoon of the game, word leaked of the rehearsal that Gladys Knight was clearly going over 1:47 (she went 2:01). I Tweeted it out and will again if I see any info that changes it, so be sure to follow me @Tomlin3 on Twitter*****

Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (+103), UNDER 18.5 Completions (+142), UNDER 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+108)

Jimmy G has hit the over on any of these marks just twice in the past eight games. Since Garoppolo threw that interception in the Minnesota game a few weeks ago, the 49ers have run the ball 72 times and passed 14 times. Their offensive line creates gashing holes for their three electric running backs to exploit. If the 49ers get out to a lead then Jimmy G is not hitting these marks.

George Kittle OVER 5.5 Receptions (+142), OVER 73.5 Yards Receiving (-102), MVP (+1200)

However, when Garoppolo does throw, I think it is going Kittle’s way almost exclusively. The Chiefs gave up the fourth-most yards and second-most catches to tight ends this year. The five times Kansas City faced Top-13 Fantasy tight ends, they averaged almost seven catches for 73 yards. George Kittle is much better than Darren Waller, Hunter Henry or Mark Andrews, and is much more crucial to the 49ers’ offense.
Embed from Getty Images

Patrick Mahomes 2nd Q TD Pass (-122), 2+ TD Passes in a Quarter (+250), OVER 30.5 Rushing Yards (+115)

Mahomes has seven passing touchdowns over his last four second quarters (and was 51 seconds away from an eighth). As I have repeatedly said, I think San Francisco gets out to an early lead. That will mean Mahomes will be playing comeback already in the second quarter, again. Because of the length of San Francisco’s drives, I like the odds that Mahomes gets two scoring throws in a quarter as he has to play quickly before the half.

I also think the San Francisco pressure provided by their front four will force Mahomes out of the pocket and into more rushing attempts.

Damien Williams UNDER 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)

Darwin Thompson UNDER 1.5 Rushing Attempts (-133)

I do NOT think the Chiefs will have many rushing attempts from their running backs. San Francisco is fifth in the league against the run per Pro Football Focus. Once again, if Kansas City is coming from behind then they will not be calling nearly as many running plays.

Daniel Sorensen OVER 5.5 Tackles (-110)

Tyrann Mathieu OVER 5.5 Tackles (+115)

San Francisco’s offensive line is arguably the best in the league at reaching the linebackers. The two safeties for the Chiefs will have to come up and make stops in the run game, as well as the times they are matched up with Kittle.

49ers Score First (-110)

I mean I need to just go all-in with my game script, right?

2-Point Conversion Attempted (+125)

There had been five 2-point attempts in the three Super Bowls leading up to last year’s snoozefest. Eight of the last ten Super Bowls have seen an attempt made. These odds are skewed because these two teams went for two less than almost any other team in the league. I think this is more because they blew out so many opponents that they were not necessary.

UNDER 1.5 Yards Shortest TD (-150)

I don’t like the added juice here, but this feels like a solid bet, mainly because of the pass interference probability in the end zone on one of these two elite tight ends.

Yes, Score in Last 2 Min of 1st Half (-350)

This juice is absolutely killer, but it’s the biggest lock of the day. I get not wanting to lay it, but I can almost guarantee it will hit.

Total Punts UNDER 6.5 (+135)

Both of these teams are more aggressive on fourth down than most and they punted less than almost anyone.

Total Players With a Pass Attempt UNDER 2.5 (-150)

Both of these coaches are known for their creative offensive schemes, not trickery. There were only three passing attempts by non-quarterbacks in their 36 combined games.

SF 3rd Down Conversions OVER 5.5 (+115)

SF Total Rushing Yards OVER 137.5 (-105)

I think the way that San Francisco will gash the Chiefs’ run defense will set up plenty of easy third-down conversions. I feel like I’m being had by this 137.5 number, as I would take the over even if it was past 150.

KC Total Rushing Yards UNDER 88.5 (-105)

I think the only way this loses is if Pat or Damien Williams breaks a long one. The 49ers longest rush allowed all season was 40 yards. They only gave up two touchdown runs longer than 8 yards.

49ers win by 4-6 points (+1200)

Everyone likes to give their score prediction out, well I like to put my money where my mouth is. I mean, what’s better if you are spot on with the game: kudos, or 12 to 1 cash?
Embed from Getty Images

Chiefs +4.5 over Luka Doncic Points vs. Atlanta Hawks

76ers 1stQ Points +2.5 over Jimmy Garoppolo Pass Attempts

These are a couple of fun, cross-sport props. Luka is averaging a smidge under 30 points per game, so this feels off, to begin with. Kansas City is projected to score 27 by the line. I think the Mavericks will have a sizable lead on the Hawks and Luka will not have to do much in the fourth quarter.

I’ve already said I think Jimmy G does not have that many pass attempts. Furthermore, Philly could blow up for 40+ points in a quarter. If they do that, there’s almost no way that Jimmy G can catch them.

That’s it for the Super Bowl LIV Football Bets: Tomlin’s Tips! Be sure to stay tuned for the Podcast, and follow me on Twitter to see any late bets I find!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog,, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

Recommended for you

1 Comment

  1. Pingback: 2020 Super Bowl Predictions: A Six-Pack of Picks - Fantasy Six Pack

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.