Fantasy Football

Tomlin’s Tips: Super Bowl LV Bets

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Somehow we made it! Through a worldwide pandemic, the NFL never cancelled a single game and we officially are here with the Super Bowl LV bets!

In a storyline that worked perfectly for the league, we have the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady, against the most talented quarterback to ever come into the league, Patrick Mahomes. While that will dominate the headlines, you will see that those two are far from the main reason for how I see the game playing out.

I also will have my best props for the Super Bowl LV Bets, where you can wager on anything from Tom Brady’s total passing yards to the length of the national anthem.

What I say every year about prop betting though: make sure your bets tell a story. Do not have conflicting bets that are unlikely to both hit (Travis Kelce under receptions but over yards; Tyreek Hill over longest catch but no touchdown, etc.). At that point, you are just handing your bookie vig money.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The Super Bowl LV Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The Super Bowl LV Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information is up to date as of February 4th.

Tomlin’s Tips: Super Bowl LV Bets

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Best NFL Bets: 1-1 last week, 43-46-1 regular season

Each week I will pick my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping contest in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Moneyline, +150; THREE units each (Mainly because I want to get above .500 and it’s my column so my rules)

I have had the line at 3.5 for two weeks, with a little extra juice so I am buying the half-point to four. That is just for insurance. I will also be taking a significant amount on the Tampa Bay money line as well as some alternate lines that I will get to in the props section.

I say this every year before the Super Bowl: everyone wants to say they KNOW what is going to happen. Most years if you put the two Super Bowl teams against each other ten times it would end up 5-5, at most 6-4. This is definitely a 5-5 year, but there is one area that gives Tampa the edge: pass rush.

Tampa Bay has the deepest pass rush in the league with eight different guys that can truly get after the passer. It was the reason I had them beating Green Bay last week and they did just that with five sacks.

This game will be more of the same. Kansas City will (most likely, if Eric Fisher does not play, even if he does, he will be a shell of himself with an Achilles injury) have just one starting offensive lineman in the game, center Austin Reiter. The most alarming part about that is Mike Remmers will be manning a tackle spot. That is the same Mike Remmers that started for Carolina in Super Bowl 50 in which Denver had SEVEN sacks and Von Miller made a name for himself.

So Mahomes will be running for his life all day. I think the Buccaneers get out to an early lead thanks to the Chiefs’ early struggles, then Mahomes is forced into bad down and distances leading to mistakes. Give me Tampa Bay to win, 27-20.

Other NFL Games Picked: 0-0 last week, 91-79-1 season

We are going to put all of our prop bets here. The odds/numbers vary dramatically from site to site, so shop it around. If you need help with an out, hit me up on Twitter.

Length of National Anthem, UNDER 2:00

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Most years this is an auto-lock over bet for me, but this year is different. It seems like it is usually a big-voiced, ballad, female singer that wants to blow the doors off. This year it is a duet of Eric Church and Jazmine Sullivan. A duet will naturally have less vibrato and more harmonizing, meaning shorter notes. Sullivan also has been taped twice performing the anthem, both coming in well under two minutes (1:38 in 2016, 1:44 in 2014). Eric Church is more of a “get-to-the-point” type of guy as well.

Who will receive the opening kickoff? Tampa Bay Buccaneers, -140

This seems like a sucker bet, right? It’s a 50/50 chance on the coin flip and everyone in the NFL defers now. However, the Buccaneers have taken the ball the last two times they won the toss and went down and scored. Moreover, Brady starts his Super Bowls super slow. He has scored just three points TOTAL in his previous nine Super Bowl first quarters. Tampa wants nothing more than to kill some clock and hopefully get that first score so that Mahomes and company press a bit. Speaking of…

1st Quarter UNDER 10.5 Points, 1st Half UNDER 28.5 Points, Scoreless Quarter +440

Only once in Brady’s nine Super Bowls have either of these totals gone over and that was the crazy Nick Foles game. Kansas City has scored just 27 points in the first quarter over their last five playoff games as well. In the Super Bowl last season, a game that ended up with 51 total points, there were only 20 in the first half. It will be a slow starter. However…

2nd Quarter, OVER 16.5 Points

Both of these quarterbacks turn it on in the second stanza. Outside of the super weird Rams/Goff Super Bowl, the second-quarter total in Brady’s games has averaged nearly 18 points per game. In Mahomes’ last five playoff games his team has averaged 16 points per second quarter with nearly 20 points total. A big reason for these higher numbers is how great these two signal-callers are at getting that score in the last two minutes.



Tampa Bay OVER 89.5 rushing yards; Leonard Fournette OVER 10.5 rushing attempts, 43.5 yards; Ronald Jones OVER 8.5 rushing attempts, 35.5 yards

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Part of slowing the game down will be running the ball early. I think the Buccaneers will also be successful at running the ball all game against a Chiefs’ defense that will have their hands full accounting for all of the Tampa Bay receiving options. The three lowest rushing total Super Bowls of Brady’s career in both yards and attempts were two losses to the Giants and what should have been a loss to Seattle. The Chiefs do not have anywhere near the kind of front sevens those teams had. In the other six games, Brady’s teams averaged 27.8 attempts for 123.8 yards rushing. One person who will not be running…

Will Tom Brady score a touchdown? NO, -500

Everyone thinks of Brady as this QB Sneak artist, especially at the goal line. Well, Brady has had his team inside the three-yard line eight different times in Super Bowls. Six times ended in rushing touchdowns to running backs. The other two were play-action touchdown passes to Mike Vrabel, so faking it to the running back. He will not be running it in. But…

Tom Brady for MVP, +160

I think he still wins this.

Tampa Bay Sacks, OVER 1.5 (3 units), Total Sacks OVER 4.5 (3 units)

This is BY FAR the best bet right now. You have to lay -170 on the Tampa sacks total but they will have it by the end of the first half. I think they also cover the 4.5 total by themselves so that can give you another option with less juice and more options with the Chiefs’ sacks added in.

Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown? NO, -275

The juice is off on this just because people like to bet the ‘yes.’ There were only 50 total scores of this nature throughout the entire NFL season. That’s about 19.5% of games, meaning the ‘No’ should be closer to -400.

Sammy Watkins OVER 2.5 receptions, 27.5 yards

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When Watkins plays, he is featured in the offense, especially in the playoffs. In the eight games Watkins started and finished in 2020, he had at least four catches six times and at least 35 yards seven times. In his five playoff games in Kansas City, Watkins has averaged seven targets, five catches and 93 yards per game.

Travis Kelce, OVER 8.5 receptions

With the pressure that will be on Mahomes all night, he will have to check down to Kelce more than go deep to Hill.

Tampa Bay Alternative Spreads: -3 (+180), -4.5 (+215) -6.5 (+270)

I’m going to put a unit down on each of these as well because I really like the payouts.

Total Number of Players with a rushing attempt, OVER 7.5

So with two main running backs each and the two quarterbacks, you are already at six players. Then you have the third backs that get touches every now and then, and Mecole Hardman/Tyreek Hill each usually get a jet sweep. This almost seems too easy.

Manchester City Goals -0.5 vs. First Quarter Field Goals

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Man City is on a tear right now and is good for 2-3 goals. I doubt there is more than one first-quarter field goal.

How many times will the Patriots be mentioned? OVER 2 times, -160

This is not available everywhere, but it’s a lock.

James Harden points 0.5 vs. First Half total points

I already think the football game will be low scoring in the first half, but Harden will have 30 for sure against Philly.

NFL 10-Point Teaser of the Week: 1-0 last week, 12-8 season

My brother and I’s favorite bet: you take 10 points extra either off the spread or over/under. You combine three different sides with the 10 extra points and all have to hit to win.

Buccaneers +14, UNDER 65.5, and WHATEVER BASKETBALL GAME YOU LIKE MOST

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Obviously, the only way to do a three-team teaser would be both ways but I don’t like that. I love the under and Bucs’ side of this, so find your favorite few basketball games and do several teases. My best one will be the Boston Celtics on Sunday against Phoenix. The basketball lines are not out yet, so you will have to stay up to the minute with them.

Others I Like (1-0 last week, 10-1 all playoffs): Brooklyn Nets, Golden State Warriors

Game Total of the Week: 0-1 last week, 13-9 season

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs, UNDER 55.5

Brady’s Super Bowls tend to go opposite of the total. In the five games with totals at 49 or over, the under has covered four times. The only time it went over it took a 25-point comeback AND a touchdown in overtime to cover. The Bucs keep the game slowed down enough early, then take a lead and grind out late to keep it under.

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College Best Bets: 41-29-2 regular season, 16-6-1 in bowls


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About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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