Tomlin’s Tips: Super Bowl LVII Football Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2023 NFL Week 18 Football Bets

We enter the Super Bowl LVII football bets with a very intriguing matchup.

As long as Jalen Hurts and Pat Mahomes are the top two in the MVP voting, this will only be the fourth time in Super Bowl history that the top two MVP candidates have faced off in the Super Bowl.

The first three times: Ken Anderson vs. Joe Montana in Super Bowl XVI, Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees in Super Bowl XLIV, and Matt Ryan vs. Tom Brady in Super Bowl LI. That is a 5-point game, a game between two HOF quarterbacks in their prime in which Peyton Manning was driving to send the game to overtime when Reggie Wayne ran the wrong route, and the craziest Super Bowl of all time.

Needless to say, I think this could go in that pantheon of all time great Super Bowls.

The conference championships were rough with a -1.7-unit deficit dropping me to a 33.3-unit profit on the season. That would mean if you placed a $100 wager on every one of my picks, you would be up exactly $3,330 for the season.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The Super Bowl LVII football bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The Super Bowl LVII football bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the Super Bowl LVII football bets is up to date as of February 9th.

Tomlin’s Tips: Super Bowl LVII Football Bets

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The Tomlin Lock of the Week (0-1 Last Week, 15-8 Season, +12.4 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles -120 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

There are so many factors pointing to the Chiefs that I simply cannot get out of my head as to why they are the underdog.

The Eagles schedule looks atrocious now, especially considering the opposing quarterbacks they have faced. Mahomes looked healthy while Jalen Hurts still has not had to prove his shoulder is 100%.

The head coach/quarterback Super Bowl experience is a chasm in favor of the Chiefs. Kansas City was rated higher by Vegas the whole second half of the season, and was the 1.5-point favorite in the lookahead line WITH concerns about Mahomes’ ankle. So why is Philly favored?

When Philadelphia Has the Ball

The Eagles will be able to run the ball on Kansas City. The generic stat is that Kansas City has not given up that many rushing yards all season.

However, if you go further, you realize they simply were not run on that much. Opponents ran the ball the third fewest number of times in the league against Kansas City.

This is due to the Chiefs getting a lead and being so hard to come from behind against. Kansas City was 24th in the league in yards per attempt on the ground.

I think Philly will be able to grind out the Chiefs and get an early lead with a healthy combination of Hurts, Miles Sanders, and Kenneth Gainwell. You will see their names pop up again in my prop bets running the ball.

This will also mean that the Eagles will not want Jalen Hurts to speed up the game throwing the ball. You will also see that show up in my props.

Lastly, the Chiefs are the second worst team in the league in Red Zone defense. The Eagles have the third-best offense at converting touchdowns. If Cincinnati can covert either of their Red Zone field goals, they win last week. I think Philly gets it done when they are in deep.

When Kansas City Has the Ball

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The obvious and square argument is that the Eagles top-rated pass rush will be able to get to a hobbled Mahomes. Well Kansas City has given up the second-fewest sack rate in the league. Even on a bad ankle, Mahomes is able to get rid of the ball and avoid the back-breaking sacks.

I am more concerned about the way that the Eagles will bend but not break. As I said earlier, I think the Eagles get a lead early. I am worried that Mahomes will try to press the issue to get back into it because of how the Tampa Bay Super Bowl went down. He waited too long and it was too late.

The Eagles know this too. So I am envisioning a baiting 4-deep, man-under hybrid zone that is daring Kansas City to get 4-yard runs or dump offs to the running backs and Travis Kelce. It sounds dumb, but make the most talented quarterback in the history of the game drive the field on you.

Why the Moneyline?

I am taking the Eagles moneyline as the added juice is not as big of a factor as giving more than a point. This game has the highest odds of any NFL game every of finishing with a one-point difference because of the new overtime rules.

Should a team score a touchdown first, the opposing team gets to respond. However, should they tie it, it goes to sudden death. I would bet the Chiefs would go for a two-point conversion in that situation, a la a single point difference either way.

The Prediction

The thing is, it really is not dumb to make Mahomes drive the field. Limit the chunks to small chunks and not big chunks. Do you want to get in a big-play shootout with Pat? Heck no!

I also am humble enough to know that there are people just flat out better at football betting than me. The majority of these people you will never hear their name, because that is how they get the most action.

These are the people that made this line happen. The head linemaker at Southpoint admitted that the lookahead line they put out “was a bad line and [they] had to adjust.” What makes a ‘bad’ line?

Remember: a betting line is NOT the prediction of the game; it is trying to get 50% of the action on both sides. That means that an OVERWHELMING amount of money came in on Philadelphia last week.

Makes sense, right? Get in on Philly as a dog before seeing Mahomes’ ankle status? Well, if that was the case… would this line not go towards the Chiefs after Mahomes looked nearly 100%?!

If something seems too obvious in betting then it is a trap. What are the reasons for betting the Chiefs? Quarterback, head coach, weak Philly schedule, experience, etc. Every one of those reasons is widely known to even the most amateur of better.

In what should be a tight, back-and-forth game, I think the underlying factors favor the Eagles. Jalen Hurts is unphased by big moments. Nick Sirianni is just crazy enough to think he is the better coach. Hassan Reddick is on an all-time heater at providing pressure. And someone very smart and connected knows something that almost no one else knows. Give me the Birds, 24-20.

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That’s it for the Super Bowl LVII football bets! Be sure to check out our weekly Fantasy Football rankings as well!

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