We have the first big surprise of the MLB offseason. Toronto Blue Jays Trade Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle Mariners.
In return, the Blue Jays received reliever Erik Swanson and minor-league pitcher, Adam Macko. On paper this trade looks very lopsided, but Ken Rosenthal brings up some very good points.
When assessing this deal, keep in mind that Hernández is under club control for only one more season with a projected salary in arbitration of $14.1, per @mlbtraderumors. That mitigates the return. https://t.co/h9fvw7ZSY6
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 16, 2022
The arbitration number for Hernandez was $4 million more than he made last year. You also have to remember they will have increasing salaries for superstars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. too.
Also, bullpen help is something they desperately needed. They were middle of the pack in bullpen ERA and got shelled in the playoffs against this exact Mariners team.
Toronto Blue Jays Trade Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle Mariners
Teoscar Hernandez Fantasy Impact in Seattle
This is a great trade for the Mariners offense.
Over the last three seasons, Hernandez has a slash line of .283/.333/.519. That is among the league's best. Their batting order has some pretty major holes in it especially with consistency to get on base so this is going to help.
Right now Roster Resource has Teoscar Hernandez projected to bat fifth, which is where he typically batted for the Blue Jays. This gives a boost to the run potential of anybody ahead of them. So those hoping for superstar Julio Rodriguez to score more runs next season, might get their wish.
Teoscar Hernandez Departure Impact on Toronto
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Pretty obvious that this is a big hit to the Blue Jays offense.
Teoscar Hernandez has been a top-30 player in offensive WAR and wRC+ over the last three seasons. Losing that kind of production is going to be hard to replace.
However, one thing that I don't see talked about yet regarding why the Blue Jays thought they could do this trade is a deal the Blue Jays made this past season. They acquired Whit Merrifield from Kansas City.
Merrifield does not have the pop Hernandez does, but if he can get back to how he played before 2022, then this will limit the impact of losing Hernandez.
If he can do that, Merrifield would easily move to the top of the lineup and help the big three be able to produce plenty of runs.
Final Thoughts
This is a slight downtick for Hernandez in my opinion.
He went from being in a lineup with Guerrero, Bichette, and George Springer, to now being in a lineup with Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and Eugenio Suarez. Yes, Rodriguez is a bonafide superstar, but that overall drop in talent is pretty large.
There is also the ballpark factor to be considered here. The Rogers Centre played as more of a neutral field for offense last season and the T-Mobile Park was negative. In fact, it was dead last in 2022 and if you average 2020-2022 according to Baseball Savant.
The good news is his power converts to T-Mobile Park. Also according to Baseball Savant, he would have hit 31 home runs if he played there, as opposed to the 28 he did playing in Toronto. Not a huge increase, but hey we'll take it.
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