Fantasy Football

Week 17 DFS Guide: Next Man Up

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Welcome to the final week of the regular season! Congratulations are in order to those who won their championships in Week 16. To those of you who are still competing in Week 17, you’re doing it wrong and this year shows exactly why.

Every year, inevitably, there are teams that have clinched their playoff spot or have no shot of making the playoffs; and therefore no incentive to have their stars play.

This year, there’s an especially long list. The Cowboys, Steelers, Giants, and Texans all have their spots locked up. At this point, 18 other teams have also been eliminated from playoff contention. Not only are a lot of offensive stars sitting, but we have to consider that defensive players will also not be playing, altering some of the defensive matchups. All this uncertainty makes this the hardest week to forecast anything concrete, but as long as there’s DFS slates to play, we’re going to give it a shot.


Each week, this guide is going to list the best VALUE plays of the week. That means this won’t be strictly a list of the cream-of-the-crop (Brady, Bell, Beckham, etc). This guide will focus on guys with spectacular matchups that are likely to exceed expectations. We’re looking for the best bang for our buck, no matter the name.

Now let’s make some money!

Week 17 DFS Guide

In each of the tables accompanying the position analysis, you’ll find some of the most important factors to consider when choosing DFS plays. Prices, fantasy points per game (FPPG), opponents’ fantasy points per game allowed, and the projected Vegas Over/Under are all listed and ranked. You’ll also find the FantasyPros.com Expert Consensus ranking for each player – a quick way to determine how the best of the best of the fantasy community feel about that player this week.

Quarterbacks

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
Drew BreesNO@ATL3$8200$6800
Matt RyanATLvs NO2$8700$7400
Aaron RodgersGB@CHI1$8800$7700
Russell WilsonSEA@SF6$7600$6800
Blake BortlesJAX@IND11$7600$5600

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

The Saints are eliminated from the playoffs, but Brees is only 142 yards away from 5,000 and completely healthy so he’s sure to play. The Falcons have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Brees threw for 376 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Ryan has been one of the front-runners for MVP all season and can add another notch in his belt this Sunday by playing well and helping the Falcons clinch a bye week. This game has an outrageous O/U of 56.5. The Saints have given up the fourth most passing yards and 45 points to the Falcons in their last meeting.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

The Packers and Lions are essentially playing a do-or-die game for a playoff spot this week. Expect Rodgers to turn in a stellar performance in a big time spot against a team that has given up five touchdowns and no interceptions in their last two games. Rodgers is fresh off throwing five touchdowns against an “elite” Minneosta defense.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Wilson is playing his best football of the season. He’s thrown seven touchdowns with only one interception in his last two games. Meanwhile, the Niners are almost historically bad. They give up over 32 team points per game and the 10th most points to opposing quarterbacks. They’re 28th in pass defense DVOA.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Under interim head coach Doug Marrone, Bortles and the Jaguars looked revitalized in Week 16. Bortles threw for 325 yards and a touchdown. He also hooked up with Allen Robinson for 9/147. The Colts give up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 202 yards and two touchdowns to Bortles in Week 4.

Running Backs

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
DeAngelo WilliamsPIT@ATL21$4500$5500
Jacquizz RodgersTBvs NO17$5200$4900
Thomas RawlsSEA@SF34$7400$5800
Darren McFaddenDAL@CHI33$4500$4300
David JohnsonARI@LA1$9300$9800

DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are planning on resting their Big Three against the Browns in Week 17. That should clear up the way for Williams to handle the majority of the touches in a plus matchup. He’s been battling injuries all season but ESPN Steelers reporter Jeremy Fowler reports DeAngelo Williams could see a “healthy” amount of touches.

In his two healthy games this year without Le’Veon Bell, Williams handled 68 touches for 303 yards and a touchdown. The Browns have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. If news comes out that Williams will be limited, Fitzgerald Toussaint is an excellent play as well.

Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rodgers is going to have the opportunity to carry the load in Week 17. The Bucs sent Charles Sims to IR and Doug Martin is facing a four game suspension. In the four games this season when Rodgers has been the lead back, he’s averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game. He hasn’t been the most efficient runner, but the Bucs have trusted him with a ton of volume. With basically nobody noteworthy behind him against a Carolina run defense without Luke Keuchley, Rodgers is a great play at his price point.



Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks

Rawls is dealing with a shoulder injury, so if he’s limited or not going to play, fire up Alex Collins. If Rawls plays, expect big things from him against a Niners front that has been unable to stop anybody. They give up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs by far, including a league leading 23 touchdowns. They gave up 106 yards and two touchdowns to Christine Michael back in Week 3.

Darren McFadden, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have nothing to play for this week as they have the number one seed locked up. Ezekiel Elliot should play a handful of snaps, but Dallas has said McFadden will get the most reps this week. McFadden has leap-frogged Alfred Morris on the depth chart. Last year, McFadden had 1,089 yards on 4.6 YPC behind a similar offensive line.

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

He’s been a monster all year and there’s no reason to think he won’t finish the season strong. Fire him up in cash and tournaments if you can.

Wide Receivers

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
Steve Smith Sr.BAL@CIN21$5800$4900
Jordy NelsonGB@DET1$8200$8100
Doug BaldwinSEA@SF5$7100$7200
Golden TateDETvs GB8$5700$6600
Mike EvansTBvs CAR2$8400$8000

Steve Smith Sr, Baltimore Ravens

Steve Smith Sr. announced he will be hanging it up after this game on Sunday. If we know anything, we know he won’t go out quietly. One of the greatest wide receivers and competitors of our generation, Smith consistently shows up in big moments. As he said: “Big time players, make big time plays in big time games.” Throw any statistics and logic you have out the window — this future Hall of Famer will have a big game on Sunday.

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is back to MVP levels and it’s not a coincidence that Nelson is going off as well. Nelson is leading the league in touchdown catches with 14 and is averaging 15.67 fantasy points per game in his last nine. He went off for 101 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2 against the Lions.

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

With Tyler Lockette going down last week, Russell Wilson absolutely locked on to Baldwin. He was fed 19 targets and caught 13 of them for 171 yards and a touchdown. The Niners have given up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers on the season. Baldwin lit them up for 8/164/1 in Week 3.

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

It seems like all the talk of Marvin Jones being the number one wide receiver in Detroit was premature. Since Week 6, Tate has led the Lions in targets, catches, and yards while Jones has faded into obscurity. The Packers have given up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 12/202/2 to Adam Thielen last week.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have a .0016% chance of making the playoffs and obviously they’re going to have to win this game. Their best chance is to feed Evans early and often. The Panthers have given up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers on the season and gave up 6/89/1 to Evans in Week 5.

Tight Ends

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
Travis KelceKC@SD1$6800$5000
Jimmy GrahamSEA@SF3$6400$4500
Zach ErtzPHIvs DAL6$5900$4800
Kyle RudolphMINvs CHI5$5900$4600
Charles ClayBUF@NYJ10$5600$3500

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have locked up a playoff spot and Kelce is a huge reason why. He’s had over 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games and is a legit contender for TE1 in 2017. The Chiefs are still playing for playoff position while the Chargers have nothing to play for anymore.

Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks

With Doug Baldwin again emerging as Wilson’s favorite target, Graham has somewhat faded into the background. He hasn’t had more than two catches or topped 45 yards in three straight games. With Tyler Lockette going down, that should open up more opportunities for Graham. He hit the Niners earlier this season for 6/100/1.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Ertz has really come on strong over this last part of the season. He has 304 yards and one touchdown over his last four games, which is quite good for tight ends this season. The Cowboys give up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

Chicago has been great against tight ends all season, but in the fantasy wasteland of the tight end position, Rudolph is as good of a bet as any for production. He’s had 49 targets over his last five games and totaled 319 yards and a touchdown.



Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills

One of the more surprising developments of the late season has been the re-emergence of Charles Clay as a viable fantasy option. He has four touchdowns in his last three games. The Jets have given up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.

Defensive and Special Teams

For an in-depth look at the DST options this week, check out Tyler Thompson’s weekly “Stream-o-matic” piece.

TeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
Seattle Seahawksvs CLE1$5200$3700
Denver Broncosvs JAX3$4800$3900
Arizona Cardinalsvs TEN2$4800$3000
Buffalo Billsvs PHI5$4700$3400
Pittsburgh Steelersvs SF8$5100$3600

Kickers

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel Price
Matt BryantATLvs NO1$5300
Stephen HauschkaSEA@SF4$4700
Justin TuckerBAL@CIN2$5200
Stephen GostkowskiNE@MIA3$4700
Adam VinatieriINDvs JAX5$5200

About Kevin Huo

Kevin is a fantasy football writer for Fantasy Six Pack. He considers every angle - whether statistical or theoretical - when weighing his options and isn't afraid to be a contrarian. You can follow him on Twitter: @KevinMHuo

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