Week 2 DFS Sleepers and Busts: Famous Jameis

by Kevin Huo
Week 2 DFS Sleepers and Busts

Week 1 is in the books and boy was it a good one (up until Monday night). 12 out of the 13 games on Sunday finished within single digits and there were numerous huge performances. Of course, we were able to predict some of these outbursts (what's up Matthew Stafford), but some of those showings came seemingly out of nowhere (Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, Mohamed Sanu, JACK DOYLE).

As a fantasy enthusiast, I'm always looking for ways to get better and get a leg up on my competition. This is especially true in DFS where there is so much variability. Recently, I came across this tool called DraftDashboard, and it has changed how I am going to play DFS. It simply makes the process so much easier. Up until I found this tool, I'd spend hours poring over rankings, stats, filling in Excel spreadsheets, but DraftDashBoard does this all for you and more.

All you have to do is go to their website, choose Browse Teams to sort by this week's match-ups or Browse Players to see a comprehensive list of this week's players. Then, you're greeted with a simple representation of the important information.

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Listed next to the player and their health status (updated live!) are three boxes. Value Score (Dollar Cost per Point), the Next Opponent's Team Defensive Rank, and the Next Opponent's Position Defensive Rank. Green is favorable, yellow is medium, and red is a bottom third match-up or value. It's that simple and intuitive.

As you can see, Eli Manning, who is playing the Saints this week, has three green boxes - which matches what we know. Eli is a good value at his price, the Saints are a bad team overall, and they give up a lot of points to quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Todd Gurley faces the Seahawks. He's currently at a red box for Value Score due to his putrid performance against the Niners, the Seahawks have a great overall team defense, and are decent against running backs.

These stats not only update each week, but they're all in one spot. No more opening and closing 20 tabs trying to find that one stats tab you actually already closed - just stick to the DraftDashBoard. You can add players to your watch list, find sleepers, even look at snap and touch percentages. It's all there are your fingertips.

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Week 2 DFS Sleepers and Busts

Sleepers

QB Jameis Winston @ ARI ($7600 FD/$6200 DK)

One of the more striking things in Week 1 was just how good Famous Jameis looked against the Falcons. Whatever diet and exercise plan Winston went on this offseason, Eddie Lacy needs to go ahead and adopt as well. Winston cooked the Falcons (a team that allowed the 7th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks in 2015) for 281 passing yards and four touchdowns.

The general fantasy community may fade Winston based on the Cardinals' well earned defensive reputation. However, that's what makes Winston such an interesting contrarian play. The Cardinals were unable to rattle Jimmy Garoppolo last week and Winston has shown a similar calm and poise in the pocket. The Patriots were able to run the ball and attack rookie corner Brandon Williams, who  gave up a 37 yard touchdown to Chris Hogan. Martin should have some success on the ground and whether it's Mike Evans or Vincent Jackson on Williams' side, Winston should have a field day targeting the rookie.

QB Andy Dalton @ PIT ($7800 FD/$6400 DK)

On paper, it looked like the Steelers' pass defense contained Kirk Cousins. However, he still threw for over 300 yards and completed nearly 70% of his passes. The strength of the Steelers' defense is on the ground, as they held the Redskins to 55 yards rushing in Week 1.

In Week 1, facing a tough Jets run defense, Dalton threw for 366 yards and a touchdown - almost half of that to A.J. Green. Unlike past AFC North battles, this figures to be a shootout. Vegas has this game projected for the 4th highest scoring total this week: 48.5. The Steelers lack the personnel on the back end to contain Green and Brandon LaFell looks rejuvenated as well. Jeremy Hill should once again have trouble getting going, leaving Dalton to do the heavy lifting.

RB Spencer Ware @ HOU ($6800 FD/$6100 DK)

As long as Ware is priced this low, I'm going to continue to ride him. Andy Reid has expressed concerns about Jamaal Charles' availability for Week 2, meaning Ware is likely locked in to a bell-cow role. He totaled 199 yards last week on 18 touches and added a touchdown. While he was impressive on the ground, he did the majority of his damage through the air.

The Texans are an impressive defense, but were middle of the pack in 2015 in DVOA against running backs as pass catchers and just lost their best linebacker, Brian Cushing. Even if Ware can't get going on the ground, he should contribute heavily in the passing game since Alex Smith is allergic to throwing the ball past the sticks.  

RB Danny Woodhead vs JAX ($6400 FD/$5200 DK)

As always, the start of the NFL season means the start of players dropping due to injuries. This year's Week 1 victim was Keenan Allen, who is now out for the season. However, that opens the door for Woodhead to play a huge role in this offense. The hype train is rolling on Melvin Gordon, but it was Woodhead who out-snapped him 50 to 23 and out-touched him 21 to 14. Even more telling is that all this occurred in a game that the Chargers were leading.

The Chargers and Philip Rivers clearly have a lot of trust in Woodhead. I believe going forward he will be a better fantasy asset than Gordon. That is especially true in a game with a Vegas total of 47 where the much-improved Jaguars could put the Chargers in a hole early.

WR Willie Snead vs NYG ($7200 FD/$5800 DK)

Snead is coming off the game of his life, catching nine out of nine targets for 172 yards and a touchdown. He and Brees are clearly on the same page and the Michael Thomas hype has quickly quieted. Snead finished third in FanDuel points among wide receivers this week, behind only Antonio Brown and his teammate Brandin Cooks.

While Cooks draws a tougher assignment in Janoris Jenkins this week, Snead will line up against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (who is prone to defensive lapses) and rookie Eli Apple in nickel sets. Expect Brees to look towards Snead early and often in this matchup that Vegas projects to total 53 points.

WR Emmanuel Sanders vs IND ($6700 FD/$6000 DK)

Oe of the most impressive storylines in Week 1 was the competence of Trevor Siemian. Now while that isn't the greatest compliment of all time, I think that adequately sums up Siemian as a quarterback: competent. And really, that's all you need against this Colts defense.

The Colts were already missing their stud cornerback Vontae Davis, their starting safety Clayton Geathers, and their starting nickel corner Darius Butler. Then in Week 1, they lost starting cornerback Patrick Robinson as well as their backup safety, second-rounder, T.J. Green. They may go into this game starting Antonio Cromartie, and two guys named Rashaan Melvin and Darryl Morris.

Sanders may spend the majority of the year wasting his talent in a run-first offense; but in this matchup, with Demaryius Thomas slowed by a hip injury, he should show out.

TE Delanie Walker ($6600 FD/$4500 DK)

Walker was here in last week's column as a bust, but this week, I'll be recommending him as a sleeper. Such is the fickle lady we call fantasy football. Walker only caught three of five targets for 42 yards last week against the Vikings, but should bounce back strong against the Lions.

The Lions showed the weakness of their defense in Week 1, allowing private investigators Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle to combine for seven catches, 88 yards, and three touchdowns.

K Dan Bailey vs WAS ($4700)

There's two things I usually look for when picking my DFS kicker - a high game point total and a home favorite. Bailey and the Cowboys check neither of these boxes. However, the Cowboys have shown the willingness to essentially play for field goals. Bailey made four field goals in Week 1 against the Giants, including a 56 yarder. With Prescott refusing to take chances downfield, there's a good chance Bailey gets a shot at a few long field goals in a game with an about average total (45).

DST New York Jets vs BUF ($4700 FD/$3300 DK)

In Week 1, the Jets managed to sack Andy Dalton seven times, and that was without arguably their best defensive lineman, Sheldon Richardson. And while Richardson makes his return this week, the Bills may be without Sammy Watkins on a short week, as he is day-to-day dealing with discomfort in his foot. In addition to that, the Bills only mustered seven points against the Ravens in Week 1.

Busts

QB Aaron Rodgers @ MIN ($8700 FD/$7800)

This isn't a Start/Sit column, so please put down your pitchforks. I am not suggesting you sit God-gers in your season-long leagues. I am simply suggesting he will not return the value that he is being priced at. He is currently the third most expensive quarterback on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Playing at Minnesota, with Jordy Nelson still making his way back from injury, and the Vikings trying to slow the game down with their run game and defense, it is hard to see Rodgers outscoring the likes of Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, and even Derek Carr.

He even seemed to struggle in Week 1, completing only 20/34 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns. His final fantasy point count was buoyed by a rushing touchdown, and although he made a ridiculous throw to Davante Adams, he was not that impressive.

RB Todd Gurley vs SEA ($8400 FD/$7500 DK)

Gurley and the Rams' offense was a mess on Monday night as they laid a giant goose egg in their maiden game as the Los Angeles Rams. If this is a sign of things to come, maybe they're better off in St. Louis. The Rams had 13 drives, TEN of which ended in punts, with the other two ended by interceptions, and a turnover on downs towards the end of the game.

As long as Case Keenum is the starting quarterback for this team, defenses will absolutely load the box against Gurley. He finished with 17 carries for 47 yards in this game and didn't have a chance to get anything going. You would hope that Jeff Fisher would learn his lesson and just give the rookie a shot, but nope. Fisher indicated today that Keenum will continue to start. That's some 7-9 bulls--t right there.

I didn't even mention the fact that the Rams face the Seahawks in Week 2. You know their resume. This is going to be ugly.

WR Dez Bryant @ WAS ($7700 FD/$8400 DK)

It's usually hard to bet against a guy like Dez, but Dak Prescott is making it pretty easy. Bryant only reeled in one of the five balls the rookie sent his way for a grand total of eight yards. I'd expect that number to increase, but not by much, as this week Bryant will square off with Josh Norman. Norman looked great against the Steelers and it is possible the Cowboys will move Bryant over to Antonio Brown's victory cigar's side. However, no matter how bad Breshaud Breeland looked against Brown, he's still a talented corner.

I would expect the Cowboys to try and take advantage of a soft defensive front and really get their run game going after it was somewhat stifled in Week 1. Prescott will continue to make mainly safe throws to everybody's favorite uncle and son duo, Jason Witten and Cole Beasley. Expect Bryant to perk up eventually, but he's not worth it at this price this week.

TE Gary Barnidge vs BAL ($6000 FD/$4000 DK)

By now, you've probably heard the news: RG3 is injured - again. While I think this is a good thing for Barnidge's value for the rest of the season, he's not someone I would start this week. Barnidge did find success against the Ravens last year, totaling 15 catches for 230 yards and a (fluke) touchdown in two games. However, the Ravens allowed the fourth fewest points to tight ends in 2015 and bolstered their defense by adding Eric Weddle.

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