Why You Should Draft Tyrell Williams

by Bobby Shepherd
Tyrell Williams

For years now the Chargers have been underrated at every position in fantasy football. Last year Philip Rivers threw for over 4500 yards and 28 touchdowns. So while not everyone knows who on the chargers to take, the smart fantasy owner knows to invest in a Philip Rivers receiver.

Keenan Allen is the guy to have from this team. Nobody should ever doubt that. But the expert consensus is that Mike Williams is the next guy to draft as he will fill the Hunter Henry role. He may, in fact, be capable of outperforming his unfortunate rookie year. But don’t overlook the established role of Tyrell Williams.

Why You Should Draft Tyrell Williams

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The Team

First and foremost there is Keenan Allen. He needs no introduction or background. Allen got 159 targets on the season for a 102-1393-6 finish. Drafting him will cost you at least a 2nd round pick.

Mike Williams struggled to remain healthy last season so he failed to create a role for himself. But many assume that he is going to establish himself as the number 2. Last season he received 23 targets in 10 games good for 11-95-0. Drafting Williams is likely to cost you a 14th or 15th round pick.

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Tyrell Williams is going largely unnoticed this offseason despite his respectable 43-728-4 stat line. Tyrell is the teams established and trusted deep threat. Williams received 69 targets last season. But arguably the most important stat last year was that he saw a snap count of 80 percent, which was second only to Allen’s 84 percent. He is currently going undrafted.

Travis Benjamin is the fourth option, but he saw only 53 percent of possible snaps last season. That number of snaps fell below 50 percent for 5 of the 10 games that Mike Williams was active in. So it would appear that Benjamin is at the bottom of this depth chart. He had 65 targets and put together a 34-567-4 stat line on the year and is going undrafted.

The Changes

There are now 114 targets vacated by the tight ends Henry and Gates who won’t be playing this year.

Travis Benjamin’s snap count is likely to decrease as Mike Williams's increases so his 65 targets could be up for grabs as well.

The replacement tight end is Virgil Green who has never eclipsed 37 targets in a season.

The Facts

There are almost 180 targets from last year that are up for grabs. Tyrell Williams had 16.9 yards per catch with a 62% catch rate. If Tyrell can add a very modest 30 targets and maintain his catch rate, his stat line projects to be 62-1047-6. This is a pick outside of the top 50 wide receivers who has top 20 upside with a floor in the mid-40s.

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Which brings us to the vacated tight end targets. Between both Gates and Henry, the average YPC was 11.7 and there were 114 targets with 45 receptions for Henry and 30 for Gates.

Now if we assume Virgil Green doesn’t surpass his career high 37 targets this year it would leave Mike Williams with 77 targets. With a catch rate of 49.8 that would project to be 38.3 catches.

Multiply that by Williams's 8.6 YPC and you’ll have 330 total yards. His ceiling is based on the Henry role who finished with 45-579-4. That is very unremarkable for a draft pick in any round.

The Takeaway

This year your league mates will undoubtedly reach for Mike Williams. The hype surrounding his name is widespread enough to ensure that. But whether you are picking for a high upside flier or a nice solid floor, Tyrell will be the best option for an even cheaper price tag.

Visit the F6P Fantasy Football Draft Kit Page for more advice to prepare for the 2018 season.

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